Kinder Morgan & Riskcore Ltd use @RISK for $7.4B Trans-Mountain Expansion Project
 
 

Kinder Morgan uses @RISK for 
Cost Estimate Risk Analysis of  
$7.4B Trans-Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project

 
 

Like any project of its magnitude and complexity, the Trans-Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project (TMEP) in Western Canada features some big, even daunting, numbers: 700 miles, 900,000 barrels of crude and refined oil a day, four years to build, and the biggest and most significant number of all, its projected cost of approximately $7.4 Billion.

Oil and gas sector veteran John Zhao of Calgary-based Riskcore Ltd. was hired by Kinder Morgan to perform the cost estimate risk analysis for project contingency (uncertainties) and escalation (inflation) on the TMEP. Risk quantification in a megaproject, or any project for that matter, requires more than an experienced and competent analyst – it also calls for a reliable risk model. Fortunately, Zhao started developing his Riskcor model, built on the @RISK platform, 12 years ago.

“With a few hundred variables and risk items evolving, the traditional deterministic and mathematic calculations just don't work,” Zhao said. “In a megaproject like the TMEP, risks should not only be identified through a qualitative process but also quantified via a stochastic quantitative process. It’s extremely complex, but our model has to reflect different types of risks and their distributions. @RISK easily solved the problem by offering a variety of risk distribution functions for simulating a large number of key variables simultaneously.”

“I have used @RISK software since 2002 and know the benefits of the tool,” he continues. “It is a user-friendly software with robust functionality. I know many risk practitioners who used the other simulation tools, are now switching over to @RISK for its strong interfaces and many improved functions. Personally, I cannot do my job without it.”

 
 
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2018 Seminar Schedule Announced

 
 

Our worldwide Palisade Regional Training courses are professional public courses designed to teach you how to apply @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite to real-life problems. The training is hands-on, and includes course notes and example files.

Palisade Regional Training courses have been accredited by a number of industry groups, enabling professionals in those industries to earn continuing education credits. Lunch and breaks are also provided, giving you a great opportunity to network with other professionals interested in risk analysis.

 
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Handy Tips for Using @RISK

On-Demand Webinar: Handy Tips for Using @RISK

 

Tips for efficiency, so you can get the most out of @RISK

 

There are many features of @RISK that will make your modelling life much simpler, if only you knew they were there! In this webinar we explore tips for using @RISK for the beginner and experienced user alike. We cover topics such as overlaying distribution graphs for comparison, changing default settings to affect reports and the way functions are inputted, and sharing models and results with others. For the efficient use of your time, you need to know how to get the most out of @RISK with minimal effort!

 
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@RISK Tips: Calculating Contribution to Variance

 
 

The @RISK help file says: "The selection of the variables and the order in which they are added is determined by the stepwise regression procedure. As with any regression technique, when input variables are correlated, the regression can pick any of the correlated variables and ascribe much of the variance to it and not inputs correlated with it. Thus, caution in interpreting the contribution to variance results is critical when inputs are correlated."

The Knowledge Base expands on this information:

@RISK runs a stepwise regression on an output, to find several measures of sensitivity to the input distributions in the model. Stepwise regression is an iterative process where input variables enter into the regression sequentially. From the inputs that have not yet entered the regression, the next one to enter is the one with greatest significance to the output. However, rerunning the regression with that additional input variable can change the results for inputs that entered earlier. If an input no longer contributes significantly, it will leave the regression...

Read the complete entry in the Palisade Knowledge Base.

 
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Live Webinars
Attend an hour-long event to learn how Palisade software works, and ask questions. See the schedule here.

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On-Demand Webinars
Watch a variety of Palisade webinars at your convenience. View a complete listing of on-demand webinars here.
 
The DecisionTools Suite
 
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Palisade Corporation

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About Us
 

Palisade Corporation is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

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