The Palisade Academic
Univ of Tasmania - Financial Risk in Salmon Farming

Evaluating Financial Risk in New Salmon Farming Scenarios

The Australian salmon farming industry, established in the mid-1980s and located in Tasmania, home to the region’s coldest waters, is now one of the country’s richest seafood sectors. With a market value in excess of $550 million, it accounts for nearly 50% of the Australian aquaculture market. But as the industry looks to double in size by 2030, it faces a number of challenges, not the least of which is the physical space it needs to continue to grow. With sheltered inshore sites for conventional net pen production facilities in short supply for a variety of reasons, the industry needs to consider the risks associated with alternative production technologies.

In 2013, a team of researchers from the The University of Tasmania in Australia and the University of St. Andrews in Scotland launched a unique comparative analysis case study, using Palisade's @RISK, to examine the viability and economic risk associated with three alternative technologies for farming salmon, with the aim of assisting industry decision-makers in charting the most efficient path to continued growth.

“Utilizing @RISK to derive representative input distributions (forms and ranges) from industry and equipment manufacturers’ data, rather than just assuming triangular or normal distributions, added value and significantly enhanced our confidence in the economic performance forecasts,” said University of Tasmania's Dr. Catriona MacLeod, one of the study’s authors.

» Read the complete case study here

How are you using Palisade software in your research and classroom? We'd love to hear your story.

Teaching Tips & Examples

Nashville - November 15-16
Register Now - View the Schedule

Save the dates! Join us in Nashville for our biggest event of the year, with two days of software training and case studies in risk and decision analysis! This event promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries. If you are interested in presenting, we're looking for interesting applications of @RISK and The DecisionTools Suite.

Benefits of Palisade Risk Conferences:

  • Get More from @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite - Get exposure to the latest techniques in risk and decision analysis so you can apply them to your own models.
  • Learn from Experts - Sessions are taught by Palisade's consultants and trainers and industry pros.
  • Expert Sessions - Meet one-on-one to discuss your model.
  • Networking Opportunities - Share ideas and speak with presenters, other attendees, and Palisade staff to gain valuable insight from many backgrounds.

» Register today for the Nashville Conference

Teaching Tips & Examples

Madrid - Sept 19th - More Info & Registration
Muscat - Sept 25th More Info & Registration
Birmingham - Oct 5th More Info & Registration
Moscow - Oct 10th More Info & Registration
Seoul - Oct 18th More Info & Registration

Join us for a full day of practical instruction from Palisade global consultants and industry leaders. Learn about @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite software, and how quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation can be applied to your problems. The workshop is designed to give hands-on instruction, with the opportunity to ask questions so that you can start solving problems.

Benefits of Palisade Risk Workshops:

  • Get more from @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite - Get exposure to the latest techniques in risk and decision analysis so you can apply them to your own models.
  • Learn from experts - Sessions are taught by Palisade's consultants and trainers and industry pros.
  • Networking opportunities - Share ideas and speak with presenters, other attendees, and Palisade staff to gain valuable insight from many backgrounds.

» View 2017 Events

Licensing Options

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:


Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation.
» Learn more

Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more

Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more

Get DecisionTools Suite 7.5 for your course by contacting:

AddressPalisade Academic Sales
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000
academic@palisade.com

Teaching Tips & Examples

Personnel Planning

Excerpted from RISKOptimizer for Business Applications by Roy Nersesian, Published by Palisade Corporation

A classic linea programming model is personnel planning where fixed numbers of full and part time personnel are hired to satisfy varying demand. However, demand in a linear program does not vary. For example, if demand for services changes from 20 customers at 9am to 50 customers at 10am, and continues changing throughout the day, linear programming is no longer capable of producing an effective model. In this chapter, Roy Nersesian discusses how to use RISKOptimizer for a personnel planning example where demand changes throughout a workday.

» Download the example files and learn more

Featured White Paper

When Unreliability Meets Uncertainty
Roy Nersesian, Leon Hess School of Business, Monmouth University, NJ

Solar and wind are unreliable sources of energy. A wind farm offshore Europe can supply the power needs of one million households, yet there have been days when total power output couldn't heat water for a cup of tea. Several years ago, there was an eclipse over Europe during calm weather reducing renewable (wind and solar) power to nil - without 100% backup, the lights would have gone out.

Electricity demand is uncertain, but its uncertainty can be bracketed within known parameters based on an analysis of past demand including a projection for growth. Meeting uncertain demand with reliable supply (fossil fuel, nuclear, hydro except in dry seasons) is the normal course of business for an operating utility. Matching up unreliable supply with undcertain demand is a newly emerging trend with the advent of renewables. The challenge is becoming more prominent with the growth in the contribution of solar and wind to electricity supply.

This white paper uses @RISK to describe the risks of matching unreliability with uncertainty via simulation of a utility with a notable commitment to renewables.

»  Read the full paper here


Palisade Corporation

The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, BigPicture for mind mapping and data exploration, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
»
Textbooks using Palisade software


In This Issue

» Evaluating Financial
   Risk in New Salmon
   Farming Scenarios

» Risk Conference
   Nashville - November 15-16

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &
   Examples

   Personnel Planning

» Featured White Paper
   When Unreliability
   Meets Uncertainty

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

Keep in Touch
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Visual decision analysis
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