The Palisade Academic
Quantifying Illegal Fishing in the Pacific Islands with @RISK

"Isorisques" Developed to Predict Metal Pitting in Salt Water, with the Help of @RISK

Pitting and corrosion of metals at sea is a major problem, especially with off-shore equipment that is required to process oil and gas 24 hours a day. Indeed, metal degradation costs are estimated around $1.372 billion. Dr. Kenneth Davey of the School of Chemical Engineering at The University of Adelaide, applied @RISK to create a predictive map of the likelihood of naturally-caused corrosion of metal structures in the saliferous environment of Bass Strait.

Although pitting is reasonably well understood, the impact of naturally occurring random, fluctuations in sea temperature and salinity has been overlooked. This represents a potential risk. To analyze risk and quantify natural fluctuations, Dr. Davey and colleagues used @RISK with Monte Carlo simulation to mimic naturally occurring fluctuations of sea temperature, salt concentration, and choloride concentration in the Bass Strait, home of 23 offshore oil and gas platforms.

Through the results of the model, the team devised ‘isorisques,’ which they propose as contours of equal probability of risk pitting, drawn on a map - similar to a topographical map. Davey and colleagues elected to use @RISK to create these novel maps for several reasons. “We use @RISK because we found it to be user-friendly and reliable, together with reasonable graphics,” says Davey. “In particular, we like that it is imbedded in widely understood spread sheeting.” Additionally, @RISK “solves the problem of large data generation by providing a stable, refined (Latin Hypercube) Monte Carlo sampling and simulation of the underlying mathematics of pitting and generation of the new isorisques.” In time, @RISK will help create a novel world atlas of risk of pitting at sea.

» Read the complete case study here

How are you using Palisade software in your research and classroom? We'd love to hear your story.

Teaching Tips & Examples

Nashville - November 15-16
Call for papers - More information

Save the dates! Join us in Nashville for our biggest event of the year, with two days of software training and case studies in risk and decision analysis! This event promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries. If you are interested in presenting, we're looking for interesting applications of @RISK and The DecisionTools Suite.

Benefits of Palisade Risk Conferences:

  • Get more from @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite - Get exposure to the latest techniques in risk and decision analysis so you can apply them to your own models.
  • Learn from experts - Sessions are taught by Palisade's consultants and trainers and industry pros.
  • Networking opportunities - Share ideas and speak with presenters, other attendees, and Palisade staff to gain valuable insight from many backgrounds.

» More about the Nashville Conference

Teaching Tips & Examples

Beijing - August 21st - More info & registration

Hong Kong - August 23rd - More info & registration

Madrid - September 19th - More info & registration

Birmingham - October 5th - Coming Soon

Save the date! Join us for a full day of practical instruction from Palisade global consultants, plus case study presentations from industry leaders. Learn about @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite software, and how quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation can be applied to your problems. The workshop is designed to give hands-on instruction, with the opportunity to ask questions so that you can start solving problems.

Benefits of Palisade Risk Workshops:

  • Get more from @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite - Get exposure to the latest techniques in risk and decision analysis so you can apply them to your own models.
  • Learn from experts - Sessions are taught by Palisade's consultants and trainers and industry pros.
  • Networking opportunities - Share ideas and speak with presenters, other attendees, and Palisade staff to gain valuable insight from many backgrounds.

» View 2017 Events

Licensing Options

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:


Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation.
» Learn more

Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more

Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more

Get DecisionTools Suite 7.5 for your course by contacting:

AddressPalisade Academic Sales
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000
academic@palisade.com

Teaching Tips & Examples

Normality Tests

Excerpted from Learning Statistics with StatTools 3rd Ed. by Chris Albright, Published by Palisade Corporation

Since so many statistical procedures assume that a variable is normally distributed, it is useful to have methods that check this assumption. StatTools provides three commonly used procedures to check. In this chapter, Chris Albright, discusses how to use StatTools for a Chi-Square Test, Lilliefors Test, and then a Q-Q Normal Plot to test the hypothesis that a variable is normally distributed.

» Download the example files and learn more

Featured White Paper

Estimation of Highway Project Cost Using Probabilistic Technique
Hannan, Abdul, Anwaar Ahmed, Tabjeel Ashraf, and Qiang Bai (2016). "Estimation of Highway Project Cost using Probabilistic Technique." DEStech Transactions on Engineering and Technology Research ictim (2016).

This research mainly focused on development of probabilistic cost estimation model for highway projects using Palisade's @RISK. The developed model has the capability to predict future project cost by incorporating the effect of different cost risk factors. It was revealed that the traditional project cost estimation techniques that do not account for different cost risk factors are inefficient, and estimates based on traditional techniques may result in project delays due to cost overruns. The developed probabilistic cost estimation model can predict project cost for highway construction projects with reasonable accuracy (minimum risk). Using data from completed projects, model validation revealed that the developed model on average overpredicts or underpredicts the true cost by only about 1.86%.

»  Read the full paper here


Palisade Corporation

The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, BigPicture for mind mapping and data exploration, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
»
Textbooks using Palisade software


In This Issue

» "Isorisques" Developed
   to Predict Metal Pitting
   in Salt Water, with the
   Help of @RISK

» Risk Conference
   Nashville - November 15-16

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &
   Examples

   Normality Tests

» Featured White Paper
   Estimation of Highway
   Project Cost using
   Probabilistic Technique

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

Keep in Touch
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Events

Training Seminars

» EMEA
Amsterdam: September 12–13
Gothenburg: September 13–14
London: September 19–20
Hamburg: September 19–21

» Asia Pacific
Brisbane: October 17–18

» Brazil
São Paulo: 8–10 de agosto
Rio de Janiero: 16–17 de agosto
Belo Horizonte: 12–14 de setembro

» North America
Boston: August 22–24
Los Angeles: September 19–21
Salt Lake City: October 10–12
Houston: October 24–26
New York: December 12–14

» Latin America
Lima: 7 al 9 de agosto
Panamá: 21 al 23 de agosto
México: 4 al 6 de septiembre
Quito: 25 al 27 de septiembre
Bogotá: 9 al 11 de octubre


Trial Versions

Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!


The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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@RISK
Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

BigPicture
Mind Mapping and Data Exploration for Excel

PrecisionTree
Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets


NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets


StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets


Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


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