Palisade Corporation
Transnet Turns to @RISK to Evaluate Capital Projects Risk in South Africa

In This Issue
What's New
» Transnet Turns to @RISK
   to Evaluate Capital
   Projects Risk

» Clay Graham's Baseball
   Gaming Paper Wins 3rd
   Place at MIT Sloan Sports
   Analytics Conference

» CIO Review's Special
   Edition Features @RISK
   Success Stories

Updates from Palisade
» Palisade's 2015 Regional
   Risk Conferences

» BigPicture Receives 5 Stars
   from Small Business Trends

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Machine Replacement Models

Upcoming Webcasts
 

In This Issue
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2014 Palisade Risk Conferences
An intensive day of networking, software training presented by Palisade trainers and consultants, and real-world case studies presented by industry experts. Join us at an event near you. More dates to come for 2015.

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PART II
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17-18 June, 11am-3pm EDT
 

Project Risk Assessment
using @RISK

11-12 August, 11am-3pm EDT

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK

PART I
2-3 Sept, 11am-3pm EDT
PART II
23-24 Sept, 11am-3pm EDT

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The DecisionTools Suite

Transnet Turns to @RISK to Evaluate
Capital Projects Risk in South Africa

Managing the delivery of all necessary goods within a country can require the careful coordination of ships, ports, railways, and pipelines. Expanding this system to accommodate more people and growth requires careful analysis of the potential risks that could threaten the schedule, cost, and efficacy of the project. Transnet, the primary freight logistics company in South Africa, relied on @RISK to assess the expansion of their infrastructure, using the software to better understand the risks that might arise during large-scale and complex capital projects.

Francois Joubert, National Program Risk Manager with Transnet Capital Projects (TCP), explains: "It is a complex project environment…A project can be a like-for-like replacement, requiring a team of three people, costing less than $465,000, and have a duration of three weeks, or it can be a port infrastructure project with multiple stakeholders, costing $558M, involving 150 people, and requiring complex engineering and procurement which takes five years to complete."

Using @RISK, Joubert used TCP's existing risk registers to identify the following:

  • Where in the risk break–down structure and project type do the most significant risks appear?
  • In which risk types and project types do the most significant risks appear?
  • What is the influence of project start delay risks on the project portfolio?

Joubert says that Palisade software made this project possible. "It's an excellent decision-making tool; it provides scientific, defendable numbers for contingency, risk ranking, etc.," he says. "There are too many useful features to count—but its flexibility of use, particularly because it is Excel based—may be the most valuable."

  » Read the complete case study
 

Clay Graham's Baseball Gaming wins 3rd place at MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Risk expert, Clay Graham's 'Diamonds on the Line: Profits through Investment Gaming' paper won 3rd place in the 2015 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Research Paper Competition in Boston. The conference is the "Super Bowl" of sport analytics, with over 3100 attendees.

Graham's paper focuses on integrating baseball game modeling with analytically based gambling, and he uses @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite for the analyses.

Graham_2015MITSloanSACPaper

@RISK screencap from Clay Graham's winning paper.

  » Read the full paper
 

CIO Review's Metals & Mining Special Edition Features @RISK Success Stories

The "Metals & Mining Special Edition" of CIO Review features an article by Palisade's vice president, Randy Heffernan, detailing several success stories. Heffernan describes how Met-Mex Peñoles and Anglo American used risk analysis software @RISK for applications like Six Sigma, sensitivity analysis, and real options. Mining companies benefit from decision trees also, as in the Metaproject story, in which an analyst used PrecisionTree to recommend the best method of saving the 33 Chilean miners trapped in a San José mine in 2010.

  » "Armed with the Right Tools, Mining and Metals Projects
      have Successful Outcomes"
in CIO Review

 

Updates from Palisade

Palisade's 2015 Regional Risk Conferences
The Palisade Regional Risk Conference Series is embarking on its 2015 global tour. These regional conferences have brought together risk and decision analysis professionals from Fortune Global 500 corporations to small consulting practices, and across every industry. Our 2015 circuit is planning on making stops in the following cities with more to be added:

Rio de Janeiro: 5 May Register Now
Johannesburg: 12 May Register Now
Madrid: 19 May Register Now
Melbourne: 21 May Register Now
Munich: 18 June Register Now

  » See the global list of conferences for 2015 for an event near you -
     dates still to be added.

Save the date for Palisade Risk Conference - New Orleans
Be sure to save the date for our Palisade Risk Conference in New Orleans! Dave MacAdams of Novelis (story above) delivered a very popular and well-received keynote at last year's two-day risk conference event. We are putting together the schedule for this November, and are looking forward to another exciting conference at the Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel.

New Orleans: 11-12 November

  » View last year's New Orleans itinerary
 

5 Stars: "I was blown away"
Review of Palisade's BigPicture software

Small Business Trends reviewed BigPicture, Palisade's new mind mapping, data exploration, and diagramming software. "By the time you reach the center of BigPicture, you're going to wonder how you ever lived without it," said Tech Editor Matt Mansfield. "With its deeply flexible features and functionality, as well as an ever growing set of documentation and videos, BigPicture is the one tool you don't want to overlook in 2015."

Small Business Trends 5-Star Review of BigPicture

  » Read the complete review
  » Learn more about BigPicture, and download a trial version

Product Spotlight
Machine Replacement Models
From Chapter 23 of Decision Making Under Uncertainty with RISKOptimizer by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade Corporation

Many companies have to decide whether to replace a machine before it fails. A common strategy is a planned replacement interval. That is, replace every machine that has not failed after M hours of operation with a new machine. The rationale is that after a while a machine is likely to fail, and if we have not replaced it our production process will be subject to more down time than if we had made a planned replacement. Too small a value of M will result in prohibitively high replacement costs while too large a value of M will result in excessive down time. Palisade's RISKOptimizer can easily be used to determine optimal planned replacement strategies.

 » Download the example model and step-by-step instructions
 

Upcoming_Webcasts

Introduction to BigPicture
Presented by: Palisade Corporation
   08 April - 10am EDT-Eastern US / 4pm CEST   » Register Now
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Introduction to Risk Analysis using @RISK
(Oil and Gas Applications Focus)

Presented by: Palisade Corporation
   11 June - 5am EDT-Eastern US / 11am CEST   » Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con
@RISK y DecisiónTools Suite - en español

   Presentador: Manuel Carmona, Palisade Corporation

   12 mayo - 11am CEST-Central Europe / 5am EDT   » Registrar

» See complete Webcast schedule


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Palisade Corporation is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

 
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