Palisade Corporation
Deloitte Uses @RISK to Advise Clients on Risk-Heavy Insurance Partnerships

In This Issue
What’s New
» US Army Uses @RISK for
   Acquisitions

Palisade Risk Conference
» Join us in New Orleans for our
   2-day Conference

Case Study
» French Rail PPP Projects Rely
   on Traffic and Revenue Risk
   Analysis using @RISK

@RISK Modeling Tips
» The Product Mix Problem

Upcoming Webcasts
 

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2014 Palisade Risk Conferences
 
The 2014 Risk Conferences are "must attend" events for quantitative risk and decision analysis professionals. Join us for an intensive day of software training presented by Palisade trainers and consultants, and real-world case studies presented by industry experts.
 
» Copenhagen: 31 March
» Amsterdam: 3 April
» Dubai: 8 April
» Bogotá: 13 May
» Madrid: 20 May
» Seattle: 24 June
» Washington, DC: 26 June
» Chicago: 17 July
» Sydney: 21 August
» Beijing: 2 September
» Brisbane: 18 September
» London: 7 October
» Frankfurt: 9 October
» São Paulo: 14 October
» Rome: 21 October
» New Orleans:
    19-20 November

» Mumbai:
   (details coming soon)


Regional Seminars
Asia-Pacific
Tokyo: 19-20 November
Singapore: 24-26 November
Melbourne: 1-2 December

Brasil
Brasilia: 24-26 de novembro
Rio de Janeiro:
  26-28 de novembro
São Paulo: 27-28 de novembro

EMEA
London: 25-27 November
Rome: 16-18 December
Bangalore: 15-16 January
Moscow: 27-29 January
Dubai: 17-19 February

Latin America
Santiago, Chile:
  3 al 5 de noviembre

North America
Seattle: 15-17 December

 

Live Web TrainingDecision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using DecisionTools Suite

PART II
3-4 November, 9am-1pm ET

 

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!


The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
» Español
» Português
» Deutsch
» Français
» РУССКИЙ
» 日本語版
» 中文版

@RISK
Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

PrecisionTree
Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


The DecisionTools Suite

US Army Uses @RISK to Address Schedule and Cost Risk in Acquisitions

Join us in New Orleans to see a presentation of this case study!

The US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity, known as AMSAA, conducts critical analyses to equip and sustain weapons and materiel for soldiers in the field and future forces. The Army is charged with determining the best possible choice among several acquisition options, taking care to examine alternatives in tradespace, sensitivity, and cost and schedule risk mitigation. AMSAA Mathematician and Statistician John Nierwinski decided to use @RISK to integrate schedule and cost consequences in order to provide a single risk rating that decision-makers can efficiently use to inform the overall decision. "This is cutting edge stuff," says Nierwinski.

The first step in Nierwinski's analysis requires schedule network models and cost models, based on information from subject matter experts and available technology cost information.

With schedule and cost variables in place, Nierwinski then creates integrated outputs from the model, which will then, with several thousand iterations, create scenarios that involve an overrun or underrun, depending on the iteration. After running the integrated model, @RISK gives an output that tells the likelihood of not meeting the schedule, and the collection of maximum consequences from schedule overrun scenarios. Nierwinski then applies this distribution to a pre-established DOD risk reporting matrix to determine the transformed risk distribution, and to eventually come up with a specific risk rating.

"Once we've established a risk rating for a certain materiel option, let's say it's a particular alternative for a kind of tank, we can do all sorts of studies (i.e. tradespace, what-if scenarios, risk mitigations)—we can examine what would happen to the risk if we were to swap out its engine for a cheaper one," says Nierwinski. "This can change a lot of things. We can study how the risk rating changes: for example, it may go from high risk to low risk."

Nierwinski says that @RISK was instrumental in modeling the inherent risk and uncertainty with materiel acquisitions that AMSAA faces. "@RISK enables us to build various kinds of risk models quickly, with lots of flexibilities."

  » Read the full case study
  » Learn more about @RISK
 

Palisade Risk and Decision Analysis Conference - New Orleans

It's Not Too Late to Sign Up for
Palisade's 2-day Risk Conference

  • Preview @RISK 7
  • Learn from Leaders at Woodside Petroleum, Tecolote
     Research, US Army, Entergy, and more
  • Earn PMI PDUs and AACE PDHs
 
Join us at the Hilton New Orleans Riverside on November 19-20, 2014. Our annual 2-day Risk Conference features four tracks of informative sessions of case studies and software trainings! Professional development credits are available.

This year's keynote presentation by Senior Manager of Innovation Strategy Dave MacAdam of Novelis Global Research & Technology Center, will take you through the method he used (and continues to use) to bring @RISK into his company and improve how his team values high-risk R&D projects.

Last year our Expert Sessions were an extremely popular benefit of the conference. Once again we are offering these one-on-one consulting sessions with Palisade technical experts and consultants at no charge. Bring your laptop and your models. All sessions are confidential. Slots are available on a first come, first serve basis. To sign up early, please contact Billy Welch at bwelch@palisade.com.

  » Register Now for the Palisade Risk Conference in New Orleans
 

Case Study
French Rail PPP Projects Rely on Traffic and Revenue Risk Analysis using @RISK
France is the largest country in Western Europe and the European Union (EU), and, with a population of roughly 67 million, it’s the second-most populous country in the EU. Naturally, building and upgrading rail systems across the country is logistically challenging, requires large amounts of financing, and often involves complicated partnerships between public and private stakeholders.

Recently, a number of long-distance, high-speed rail projects were analyzed using @RISK to fully weigh the challenges each project faced. “@RISK allowed us to take all the risks into account and to assess the whole ‘Value at Risk’ for the project financier,” says Dr. Lionel Clément, who helped spear-head the analysis. Clément is an Associate at Transae, a consultancy in transport economics. The project financer is Réseau Ferré de France (RFF), a state-owned company that owns and manages the French railway sector.

 » Read the full case study
 
 

Product Spotlight
The Product Mix Problem
Virtually every management science book begins the study of linear programming with the classical product mix problem. The object is to determine a mix of products to produce that maximizes profit subject to limited resources and known demand for each product. The problem with this setup is, of course, that many parameters of the problem are not known with certainty. Of course, demand is always unknown. The amount of each resource used by a product may be unknown. The price of each product may even be unknown. Despite this uncertainty companies must determine what to produce. RISKOptimizer lets us determine a production schedule that is "best" (maximizes expected profit in the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty). In this section we use RISKOptimizer to optimize the product mix in the face of uncertainty.

 » Download the example model and step-by-step instructions
 » More about RISKOptimizer  
 

Upcoming_Webcasts

English
Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by: Palisade Corporation
   13 Nov. - 10am CET-Central Europe (4am EDT)   » Register Now
   11 Dec. - 10am CET-Central Europe (4am EDT)   » Register Now

Applied and Efficient Modeling in Natural Resources: Case Studies of Mining and Oil and Gas
Presented by: Kurt Rinehart and Francisco J. Zagmutt, EpiX Analytics
   11 Dec. - 11am EST-Eastern US(5pm CET)   » Register Now

Life Cycle Cost Analysis Using @RISK
Presented by: Anthony Sclafani
   18 Dec. - 11am EST-Eastern US(5pm CET)   » Register Now

Spanish - Español
Introducción al análisis de riesgo en Proyectos con @RISK
Presented by: Luis Ywama, Palisade Latinoamérica
   31 Oct. - 11:00 am COT, ECT, PET (12 noon EDT)   » Register Now

Portuguese - Português
Análise Quantitativa de Risco Utilizando o @RISK e o DecisionTools Suite
Presented by: Renato Limão, Palisade Corporation
   07 Nov. - 10am BRST-Brazil (1pm CET)   » Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


Palisade

The Global Leader in Risk
and Decision Analysis

Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

 
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