Palisade Corporation
Kansas State University Utilizes @RISK to Aid in Biosecurity for Beef Cattle

Kansas State University Utilizes @RISK to Aid in Biosecurity for Beef Cattle
In the beef industry, biosecurity is too often neglected. Beef producers commonly import new animals into their herds, but don’t take measures to decrease risk of disease introduction. Reproductive disease is an important cause of lost production and economic return to beef cow-calf producers, causing estimated losses of $400 to $500 million dollars per year. Because of the complex nature of the production system, the biologically and economically optimal interventions to control disease risk are not always clear.

Dr. Michael Sanderson, a professor of Beef Production and Epidemiology at Kansas State University’s (KSU) College of Veterinary Medicine, addressed this issue by developing a risk management tool for veterinarians and beef cow-calf producers to assist in identifying biologically and economically valuable biosecurity practices, using @RISK.

The project modelled the risk of introduction of the infectious disease Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD) into the herd, the impact of disease on the herd (morbidity, mortality, abortion, culling, lost weight) and economic control costs.

As a result of the risk identification insight gained from the research, Dr. Sanderson and his team were able to improve disease management and controls—primarily by identifying management practices that affect the probability of disease introduction and production, as well as strategies that would lower biological and economic risk over a ten-year planning horizon.

 » Read the full case study
 » More about @RISK
 » Learn more about Dr. Michael Sanderson
 

@RISK For this project, @RISK was essential to
      model variability and uncertainty in risk for
      disease introduction and impact following
      introduction, as well as variability and
      uncertainty in effectiveness of mitigation
      strategies.
Trial Versions

                        Dr. Michael Sanderson, Beef Production and
                        Epidemiology, KSU College of Veterinary Medicine

Licensing Options

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:

 

Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation. Palisade offers a complimentary Live Web Training session to all instructors who order a Course License.
» Learn more

Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more

Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more

Get DecisionTools Suite 6 for your course by contacting:

AddressPalisade Academic Sales    
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000
academic@palisade.com

Teaching Tips & Examples

The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way for students.

Using RISKOptimizer to
Optimize Audit Sampling

Excerpted from Decision Making Under Uncertainty,
by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade Corp.

Auditors often try to estimate the mean or variance of a population in a cost effective manner. The only way, of course, to surely know the mean of a population is to completely sample the entire population. Download the example file below to walk through two examples of using RISKOptimizer to optimize audit sampling. The first example estimates the average invoice value of a population of 5000 invoices. The second example shows how RISKOptimizer can be used to determine optimal allocations in stratified sampling, while trying to determine the total inventory value of 1600 items.

»   Download example file and view step-by-step instructions

Tech Tip of the Month

Specifying a Descriptive Name
for an Input Distribution

Every @RISK input distribution has a name for use in graphs and reports as well as the @RISK Model Window. When you first define a distribution, either in the Define Distribution window or by directly entering a formula in the worksheet, @RISK assigns it a default name. This default name comes from text that @RISK finds in your worksheet and interprets as row and column headings. If the name is acceptable, you don't need to do anything. If it's not acceptable, or if it's blank because @RISK couldn't find any suitable text, you can easily change it, using any of these methods:

  • In the first box in the Define Distribution window, enter the desired name. (You can do this when first creating the distribution. For an existing distribution, click on the cell and then click Define Distribution to reopen the window.)
     
    Define Distribution Window
     
  • Enter or change the name in the Model Window. Click anywhere in the row for the desired input, right-click, and select Function Properties. The Name box is first in the Properties dialog.
     
  • Edit the formula directly, in Excel, to insert a RiskName property function. For example,
     
        =RiskPoisson(.234)
     
    might become
     
        =RiskPoisson(.234, RiskName("Number of claims"))
     
    or, with the name in a separate cell,
     
        =RiskPoisson(.234, A17)

Save your workbook after entering or editing any names. The new names will be used in subsequent graphs and reports. (Graphs and reports of simulation results will use the new names when you run a new simulation.)

Palisade Corporation Learn more in the @RISK manual

Featured White Paper

The DecisionTools Suite is part of complex analyses published in white papers.

Linking Mineral Systems Models to
Quantitative Risk Analysis and
Decision-Making in Exploration
by Dr. Oliver Kreuzer et al., X-plore Geoconsulting

The authors' approach integrates critical mineralization processes and conditions with concepts of probability theory, decision analysis and financial modeling. A case study, based on an actual porphyry copper project, illustrates how the probabilistic mineral systems model can generate a measure of the probability of ore occurrence as an input for exploration decision trees and simulations to calculate the expected value (EV) of an exploration project and the probability distribution of all possible surrounding NPV values within a minimum and maximum range. Formulation of the probabilistic model closely follows and combines principles of the well-established petroleum and mineral systems approaches and makes use of Excel™-based model templates and PrecisionTree.

Palisade Corporation  Read the full paper here

Recent School Adoptions

Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2012, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:

US and Canada:

  Appalachian State University
Bradley University
Broward College
Cornell University
Dakota State University
Dalhousie University
Emory University
Harvard School of Public Health
Illinois Institute of Technology
Ithaca College
Queen's University
University of Arizona
University of Colorado Denver
University of Maryland
University of Texas Austin
University of Texas El Paso
University of Virginia
University of Washington
University of Waterloo
US Army Logistics Management College
Washington University in Saint Louis


International:

  City University London - United Kingdom
Georg August Universitaet Goettingen - Germany
Hochschule Zittau/Goerlitz - Germany
Pontificia University - Colombia
Ruhr-Universitaet Bochum - Germany
Sabanci Universitesi - Turkey
Universidad de San Buenaventura Cali - Colombia
Universidad Industrial de Santander - Colombia
Universidad Politecnica de Valencia - Spain
Universidad Pontificia Bolivar - Colombia
Universite de Bretagne Occidentale - EMISAB - France
University College London - United Kingdom
University of Split - Croatia
Palisade Corporation

The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
»
Textbooks using Palisade software


In This Issue

» Kansas State U Utilizes
  @RISK for Biosecurity

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &
   Examples

   Using RISKOptimizer to
   Optimize Audit Sampling

» Tech Tip
   Specifying a Descriptive
   Name for an Input
   Distribution

» Featured White Paper
   Linking Mineral Systems
   Models to Quantitative Risk
   Analysis and Decision-Making
   in Exploration

» Recent School Adoptions

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

Keep in Touch
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Events

2013 Palisade Risk Conferences
 
The 2014 Risk Conferences are "must attend" events for quantitative risk and decision analysis professionals. Join us for an intensive day of software training presented by Palisade trainers and consultants, and real-world case studies presented by industry experts.
 
» Copenhagen: 31 March
» Amsterdam: 3 April
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 * Special Oil and Gas Focus

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» Trade Shows
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» Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using DecisionTools Suite
PART I

11 - 12 June, 8am-12pm ET
20-21 Oct, 9am-1pm ET

PART II
18-19 June, 8am-12pm ET
3-4 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

Project Risk Assessment
using @RISK

5 - 6 August, 2pm-6pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK

PART I
4 - 5 Sept, 1pm-5pm ET
PART II
15-16 Sept, 1pm-5pm ET

Trial Versions

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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