Hitachi Solutions uses the @RISK Developer Kit to Customize their Risk Analyses in the Manufacturing Industry
There are a wide variety of risks in the manufacturing industry, including fluctuating variables such as demand, price, and foreign exchange. The Planning Department of Hitachi Solutions East Japan, Ltd. is responsible for taking these risks into account when analyzing supply chain management, production, and sales & inventory planning. For example, the amount of supply (production and procurement) is decided based on demand forecasts. If the forecast is wrong and there is a supply shortage, then the company will miss opportunities to increase sales. If there is too much supply, then there are inventory or disposal costs. Price and currency fluctuations are also important factors for risk management in their sector, and the improvement of forecast accuracy through risk analysis is essential to mitigate these risks.
Hitachi has chosen Palisade products to streamline their analyses. By utilizing the functionality of the @RISK Developer Kit, Hitachi has incorporate risk analysis functions and techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation, into their own high level stand-alone GUI (graphical user interface) outside of the spreadsheet environment. They are now able to read data from another system and visualize production and inventory conditions, while also incorporating @RISK’s excellent risk analysis functions. Through the use of tornado diagrams, they can understand the effects on profitability based on which product is produced or sold at what time, and observe the overall situation for each product.
» Read the full case study
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Risk Professionals Gather in Vegas for Palisade’s 2013 Risk Conference
The Palisade’s 2013 Risk Conference series concluded with a 2-day event in Las Vegas last week. Around 170 decision-makers from a wide range of industries gathered at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino for software presentations and industry case studies from CH2M Hill, Westinghouse, Lockheed Martin, Intel, Premera Blue Cross, Tennessee Valley Authority, and dozens of others. Participants were also able to learn from software training sessions, and meet with Palisade consultants in one-on-one Expert Sessions.
Brian Maturi, Director of Risk Management at BorgWarner, delivered the keynote address. Mr. Maturi described the successful implementation of a capital appropriations model that is used by around 300 people in 19 countries around the world. Maturi and BorgWarner worked with Palisade’s Custom Development team to incorporate @RISK functionality into the model so that non-expert users could easily input data, and obtain standardized reports for business managers.
The 2013 Risk Conference series took place in over a dozen cities covering 6 continents, and brought together hundreds of risk analysis professionals. We will announce 2014 conference dates soon, and hope you will be able to join us.
Some quotes from the 2013 Las Vegas event:
"Excellent opportunity to explore all aspects
of risk analytics!"
Kurt Carson, Senior Quant Analyst
in ERM group, Chelan PUD
"Excellent conference. Very informative.
— Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk
Management at CenterPoint Energy
— Matt Rosenberg, RoseCap Investment Advisors
"A valuable and educative experience."
— Richard Horsfall, Consultant
"Excellent learning and networking opportunity."
— Mike Wallace, Consultant
"Very good conference with good usage of time."
— Mark Mendonca, Program Risk Management,
Ernst & Young
» See the conference program, read testimonials, and more
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Wall Street Journal Highlights Palisade
and Role of Monte Carlo Simulation in Evaluating Green Technology Risks
The Wall Street Journal recently published an article entitled “Are There Red Flags in Green Construction?” by Joe Mullich. This article highlights the fact that new risks can result as green options - such as renewable energy and environmentally friendly construction – become the norm. Palisade’s Randy Heffernan is quoted in the article, citing risks we’ve seen in the green construction industry. Mitigation strategies include the use of Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.
» Read the full article
University of London and EpiX Analytics
Teach @RISK in Health and Food Safety
Risk analysis is increasingly being used to support decisions relevant to national food safety and animal health policies as well as international trade agreements, with an overall goal of reducing the probability and impact of diseases in animals and humans. This has led to a growing demand for suitably qualified risk analysts and cutting-edge risk analysis practices in health and food safety.
With a long track record in delivering quantitative risk analysis training to the health, epidemiology and food safety communities, EpiX Analytics has teamed up with the Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group of the University of London - Royal Veterinary College in London, UK to launch an academic Postgraduate Certificate in Risk Analysis in Health and Food Safety. The Certificate is the first recognized qualification in risk analysis in health and food safety, awarded by the University of London and utilizes @RISK to provide this training.
» Read the full case study
Price Evolution in Markov Chain
A Markov chain is a process observed through time where the probability distribution of the next state of the process, given the current state, is independent of the past states. When dealing with Markov chains, it is always interesting to see whether future statistics depend much on the starting state.
This @RISK example model illustrates the evolution of prices through time. It assumes that there is an underlying process, such as the state of the economy, that follows a Markov chain with states 1, 2, and 3. Then for any given state, the change in price is normally distributed with mean and standard deviation that depend on the state.
» Download the example model
(Minimum edition: @RISK 6.0 Standard)
Introduction to Risk Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite
Presented by: Aman Bajaj
28 November - 10am GMT (Greenwich Mean Time)
» Register Now
Exploring Oil and Gas Applications of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite: Examples from Petrobras and Others
Presented by: Rafael Hartke
19 December - 11am EST (Eastern Standard Time)
» Register Now
» See complete Webcast schedule
The Global Leader in Risk
and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.