Palisade Corporation
E-Focus: PricewaterhouseCoopers Advocates “Corridor Budgeting” to Deal with Uncertainties Head On In This Issue
What’s New
» PwC Advocates “Corridor
   Budgeting” to Deal with
   Uncertainties Head On

» New Postgraduate Certificate
   in Risk Analysis in Health and
   Food Safety at the Royal
   Veterinary College of the
   University of London

» Palisade Featured in
   Healthcare ExecutiveInsight

» Save the Date: 2013 Palisade
   Risk Conference Las Vegas –
   November 20-21

Case Study
» @RISK Used to Model
   Blood Screening Safety

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Using @RISK to Estimate
   Oil and Gas Reserves

Upcoming Webcasts
 

In This Issue
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2013 Palisade Risk Conferences
 
Plan now for the eighth Palisade Risk Conference series, to start in March next year in South America. More information about each conference to be announced soon.
 
» Santiago de Chile: 19 March
» São Paulo: 21 March
» Johannesburg: 25 April
» London: 11 June
» Frankfurt: 13 June
» Las Vegas: 20-21 November


Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Jakarta: 20-21 February
Melbourne: 27-28 January
Brisbane: 20-21 March
Canberra: 10-11 April
Singapore: 17-18 April
Auckland: 22-23 May

» Brazil
São Paulo: 25 fevereiro-1 março
(oferecido à noite, 18:00-22:00)

» Latin America
Medellín: 5-7 de febrero
Quito: 19-21 de febrero
Bogotá: 5-7 de marzo
México D.F.: 9-11 de abril
Buenos Aires: 9-11 de abril
Santiago: 14-16 de mayo

» North America
Ottawa: 5-7 February
Washington, DC: 14-15 Feb.*
Los Angeles: 20-21 February*
Phoenix: 4-5 March
Phoenix: 7-8 March*
South Carolina: 12-13 March
Orlando: 26-27 March
San Diego: 2-4 April
Washington, DC: 9-11 April
San Diego: 16-18 April
Chicago: 23-25 April
New York City: 1-3 May
Houston: 8-9 May*
Seattle: 15-16 May*
Detroit: 21-22 May   
*Project Risk Assessment Seminar
 

Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite
PART I

21-22 Feb., 9am-1pm ET

PART II
7-8 March, 9am-1pm ET

 

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Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!


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The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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@RISK
Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

PrecisionTree
Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


The DecisionTools Suite


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PricewaterhouseCoopers Advocates
“Corridor Budgeting” to Deal with Uncertainties Head On

 
PwC’s Tobias Flath and Michael Hofmann have developed a method of budgeting that more accurately takes uncertainty into account. Their Corridor Budgeting process incorporates Monte Carlo simulation, such as performed by Palisade’s @RISK software, to account for a wide range of possible outcomes. “Corridors” are simply ranges of possible values that forecasts could take, expressed as probabilities. Flath and Hofmann believe "it’s time to shift gear from the forecasting of individual values to forecasting in the context of corridors. Decision makers need to learn to deal with uncertainty in planning."

 » Watch a video describing Corridor Budgeting
 » Read more about Corridor Budgeting
 » Read about PwC’s use of @RISK for insurance strategy
 » Read about PwC’s ongoing use of Palisade tools
 

New Postgraduate Certificate in Risk
Analysis in Health and Food Safety at
the Royal Veterinary College of the
University of London

  • What will be the effect of a new health policy in a country?
  • How to quantify and mitigate health risks in our food supply?
  • Should we allow imports of a certain agricultural product?
Quantitative risk analysis techniques can help you answer these and many more questions. A new postgraduate certificate program in Risk Analysis in Health and Food Safety is being offered by EpiX Analytics and the Royal Veterinary College (RVC), University of London. “People interested in risk analysis in health and food safety come from a variety of backgrounds, so it was important for us to use software that is not only statistically sound, but also user friendly. This is why we chose @RISK as the primary teaching software for this course,” said Dr. Francisco Zagmutt, managing partner of EpiX Analytics and one of the course instructors.

This course will use many examples and case studies to provide participants with the skills for cutting-edge quantitative risk analysis in health and food safety. The course is designed to accommodate the work schedules of professionals from research institutions, governmental and international agencies; agricultural, food, pharmaceutical and related industry; and academic staff and post graduate students.

 » More information and to register
 » More information about EpiX
 » Read a case study from the Royal Veterinary College
 

Palisade Featured in Healthcare
ExecutiveInsight

In December 2012, Palisade contributed a feature article on the use of Monte Carlo simulation and quantitative risk analysis in the healthcare industry. Entitled “Using Technology to Navigate Risk: Monte Carlo simulation provides not only an assessment of what could happen, but also the probability of different outcomes occurring,” the article touches on the benefits of using Monte Carlo simulation in @RISK to address common healthcare issues such as avoiding staffing shortages, projecting patient capacities, and analyzing facilities expansion.

 » Read the full article

Save the Date: 2013 Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas – November 20-21
Save the date for the 2013 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino. We’ve added the Las Vegas dates to the 2013 Risk Conference series, along with events in Santiago de Chile, São Paulo, Johannesburg, Shanghai, Tokyo, London, and Frankfurt. In the eighth year and with continually increasing participation, the Palisade Risk Conferences have become the most important events of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. Over the course of two days in Vegas, industry users and expert consultants will present dozens of real-world case studies and training sessions about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. In addition, you’ll have the opportunity to meet one-on-one with technical consultants to address your personal modeling and risk problems.

 » Submit a paper – Email us with an interesting application
    story to be considered for the 2013 slate of presenters
 » View the 2012 Las Vegas program
 » 2013 Palisade Risk Conference series


Case Study
@RISK used to Model Blood Screening Safety One of the political goals of the European Union is to achieve a more unified approach to public health regulation and practice. This is particularly true of blood transfusion safety. Dr. Arturo Pereira’s research at the Hospital Clinic in Barcelona, Spain has been directed at the question of how to predict with some assurance the health and economic consequences of blood transfusion procedures, particularly the risks of contracting hepatitis B in the transfusion process.

Dr. Pereira researched the question: how will improved donor screening for hepatitis B affect health outcomes and medical costs across the EU? The study was intended to inform public health policy makers.

Using @RISK in his research, Dr. Pereira was able to increase the sophistication of his modeling procedure to better mimic real-world health and economic outcomes. According to Dr. Pereira, “Monte Carlo simulation is a procedure that has remarkable capacity to adapt to variation and uncertainty, and to the augmentation of detail. In addition, software allowing Monte Carlo simulation of complex spreadsheet models, in this case @RISK, has simplified the modeling and calculation phases of the study, leaving more time and energy for result analysis and interpretation.”

 » Read the full case study


Product Spotlight
Using @RISK to Estimate
Oil and Gas Reserves

Simple Volumetric Reserves
This model calculates simple volumetric reserves, N=AhR. The three input cells for A, h, and R contain Triang distributions. The single output cell, Reserves, is the product of the inputs, scaled down by 10^6. After simulation, the resulting distribution for N is skewed to the right.

This example was taken from Decisions Involving Uncertainty: An @RISK Tutorial for the Petroleum Industry by James Murtha, published by Palisade Corporation, where a detailed, step-by-step explanation can be found.

 » Download the example model

Estimating Reserves from Horizontal Well Bore
This model represents reserves estimates involving the product of variables. The uncertain factors, represented by Triang distributions, are:

  • Fracture Recovery
  • Fracture Spacing
  • Horizontal Length
  • Fraction Depleted
  • Fraction Water Filled
The output is the Rh estimate.

This example was taken from Decisions Involving Uncertainty: An @RISK Tutorial for the Petroleum Industry by James Murtha, published by Palisade Corporation, where a detailed, step-by-step explanation can be found.

 » Download the example model


Upcoming_Webcasts
Introduction to Risk Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Palisade Corporation
   31 January 2013 10am GMT (Greenwich Mean Time)
» Register Now
   28 February 2013 10am GMT (Greenwich Mean Time) » Register Now
   13 March 2013 10am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time) » Register Now
   28 March 2013 10am GMT (Greenwich Mean Time) » Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión
con @RISK y DecisiónTools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation
   26 March 2013 10am GMT (Greenwich Mean Time)
» Register Now

@RISK for Engineers
Presented by Andre Kleyner
Delphi Corporation
   28 March 2013 11am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)
» Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


Palisade

The Global Leader in Risk
and Decision Analysis

Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

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