Palisade Corporation
CRC Press Publishes Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty by Charles Yoe

CRC Press Publishes Primer on Risk
Analysis: Decision Making Under
Uncertainty
by Charles Yoe

This new book lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions “what is risk analysis?” and "how do I do this?” The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. The book incorporates actual Excel models using @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software, and includes a free textbook edition for students to use.

Charles Yoe is a professor of economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University, Baltimore, and an independent risk analysis consultant and trainer. Working extensively for U.S. and other government agencies as a consultant and risk analyst, his wide range of risk experience includes international trade, food safety, natural disasters, public works, homeland security, ecosystem restoration, resource development, navigation, planning, and water resources. As a consultant to private industry, his work includes a discrete but wide variety of concerns. He has trained professionals from more than one hundred countries in risk analysis and conducted customized risk training programs for government agencies and private industry in over two dozen nations.

» Read more about Primer on Risk Analysis from the publisher
 

@RISK  The Regional Training Course was great and
      exactly what I needed to enable me to save
      hours in building my simulation. The
      instruction was excellent, hands-on, and
      flexible. Many thanks. Trial Versions

                             Marc Wood, Analyst/Instructor
                             United States Military Academy

Recent School Adoptions

Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2011, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:

US and Canada:

  Albany College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences
American University
Arizona State University
Mississippi State University
Pennsylvania State University
Savannah State University
Texas Tech University
University of British Columbia
University of California, Davis
University of Maryland
University of Notre Dame
University of Texas at El Paso
University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee


International:

  AGSM MBA (Hong Kong)
Centros Culturales de México, A.C.
Chukyo University (Japan)
ESADE (Spain)
Instituto Politecnico de Leiri (Portugal)
ITESO AC (Mexico)
MacQuarie University (Australia)
NTUA (Greece)
Pontificia Univ. Catolica De Valparaiso (Chile)
Ricardo Bernardo Prada/CAPES (Brazil)
TECSUP No 1 (Peru)
The University of Sydney (Australia)
Universidad del Istmo (Guatemala)
Universidad ESAN (Peru)
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Universidad Ricardo Palma (Peru)
Universite Paris Dauphine (France)
University of Dundee (United Kingdom)
University of Leeds (United Kingdom)
UNSW (Australia)
UOA (Greece)

Licensing Options

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:

 

Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation.
» Learn more

Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more

Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more

Get DecisionTools Suite 5.7 for your course by contacting:

AddressPalisade Academic Sales    
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000
academic@palisade.com

@RISK This a very powerful tool and I am
      very happy with it. Trial Versions

                       Santiago Olivella, PhD Candidate
                       Washington University in St. Louis

Teaching Tips & Examples

The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way. Each month we feature an example or tip illustrating how students can gain "real world" benefits by implementing quantitative analysis.

Finding Value at Risk (VAR) of a Portfolio
Excerpted from Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade Corporation

Anybody who owns a portfolio of investments knows there is a great deal of uncertainty about the future worth of the portfolio. Recently the concept of value at risk (VAR) has been used to help describe a portfolio's uncertainty. Simply stated, value at risk of a portfolio at a future point in time is usually considered to be the fifth percentile of the loss in the portfolio's value at that point in time. In short, there is considered to be only one chance in 20 that the portfolio's loss will exceed the VAR. To illustrate the idea suppose a portfolio today is worth $100. We simulate the portfolio's value one year from now and find there is a 5% chance that the portfolio's value will be $80 or less. Then the portfolio's VAR is $20 or 20%. The following example shows how @RISK can be used to measure VAR. The example also demonstrates how buying puts can greatly reduce the risk, or hedge, a long position in a stock.

Palisade Corporation Download the example spreadsheet and
    step-by-step instructions

Tech Tip of the Month

Interpreting the y axis
in @RISK histograms

Q. In the histograms of my @RISK distributions and results, what do the numbers on the vertical axis mean? Can I make the scale more user friendly?

A. The default scale is probability density. This is adjusted so that the areas (height × width) of all the bars add up to 1.

You may prefer a relative frequency scale, where the height of each bar equals the proportion of the distribution that falls within that bar. To set relative frequency, click the histogram icon at the bottom of the window.

» Learn more

Textbook of the Month

The DecisionTools Suite is included in dozens of major textbooks, and is a key component of more titles every year. Authors use the DecisionTools Suite to illustrate key analytical concepts and build examples demonstrating the value of quantitative techniques in business, OR, and engineering.

Spreadsheet Modeling for
Business Decisions, 3rd Ed.
by John F. Kros
Published 2011

Spreadsheet Modeling for Business Decisions presents five fundamental topics of business decision modeling and analysis:

  1. Decision Making Under Uncertainty
  2. Simulation Modeling
  3. Optimization Modeling
  4. Forecasting and Linear Regression Modeling
  5. Project Management

The book includes @RISK and DecisionTools Software, integrates spreadsheet modeling within each chapter and concept, emphasizes effective communication of results, includes a review of probability and statistics, and introduces Visual Basic for Applications. The 3rd edition has been updated for Excel 2010.

» Learn more from the publisher
» See a list of books bundled with Palisade software

Featured White Paper

Professors, PhD candidates, practitioners and others often use the DecisionTools Suite as part of a complex analysis to address important problems. These analyses are published in white papers. Each month we will feature a different academic white paper addressing a wide range of issues.

Monte Carlo Simulations of
Survival after Catastrophes
by J. S. Sá Martins and S. Moss de Oliveira,
Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal Fluminense

 
The question of why sex evolved is a very old one, and remains unsolved. It is a well-known fact that simple asexual reproduction (without recombination, for haploid organisms) is a very fast process, but it results in a poor genetic diversity, in contrast to sexual reproduction, which generates a higher diversity but a lower number of offspring (besides the risk of dilution of well-fitted genomes).

Palisade Corporation  Read the full paper here

Academic Live Webcast

Professors using Palisade software share examples and teaching tips they've used in class in Palisade's Academic Webcast series. Register online at no charge.

A Stochastic Simulation Model for Dairy
Business Investment Decisions

To be presented by Dr. Jeffrey Bewley, University of Kentucky
May 24, 2012, 11:00am ET

A dynamic, stochastic, mechanistic simulation model of a dairy enterprise was developed to evaluate the cost and benefit streams coinciding with investments in Precision Dairy Farming technologies. The model was constructed to embody the biological and economical complexities of a dairy farm system within a partial budgeting framework. A primary objective was to establish a flexible, user-friendly, farm-specific, decision-making tool for dairy producers or their advisers and technology manufacturers. The basic deterministic model was created in Microsoft Excel. @RISK was employed to account for the stochastic nature of key variables within a Monte Carlo simulation.

» Read more details about the webcast and register here
» See complete Webcast schedule

Palisade Corporation
The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?

The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
»
Textbooks using Palisade software

In This Issue

» CRC Press Publishes
   Primer on Risk Analysis:
   Decision Making
   Under Uncertainty

» Recent School Adoptions

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &
   Examples

   Finding Value at Risk
   (VAR) of a Portfolio

» Tech Tips
   Interpreting the y axis
   in @RISK histograms

» Textbook of the Month
   Spreadsheet Modeling for
   Business Decisions, 3rd Ed.

» Featured White Paper
   Monte Carlo Simulations of
   Survival after Catastrophes

» Academic Live Webcast
   A Stochastic Simulation
   Model for Dairy Business
   Investment Decisions

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

Keep in Touch
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Risk Conferences

2012 Palisade Risk Conferences
Industry experts present real-world case studies, Palisade consultants deliver workshops and training, plus sneak previews of new software. Don't miss the opportunity to sign up for an Expert Session, in which you can have an expert review your model and answer questions, one-on-one, at no charge!
» London: 18-19 April
» Sydney: 29-30 May
» Las Vegas: 7-8 Nov

Events

» Training Seminars
Asia-Pacific
Canberra: 1-2 May
Beijing 16-17 May
Hong Kong: 13-14 June
Melbourne: 19-20 June
Sydney: 10-11 July
Auckland: 18-19 July

Brazil
Curtiba:9-11 de maio
São Paulo: 23-25 de maio
Recife: 13-15 de junho
Belo Horizonte:
   27-29 de junho

EMEA & India
Copenhagen: 26-27 April
Madrid: 11-12 May
Abu Dhabi: 14-16 May
London: 22-23 May
Amsterdam: 29-31 May
London: 19-20 June
Paris: 21-22 June

Latin America
Santiago, Chile: 18-20 de abril
Buenos Aires, Argentina:
  23-25 de abril
Quito, Ecuador: 2-4 de mayo
Villahermos, México:
  9-11 de mayo
Medellín, Colombia:
  13-15 de junio

North America
Chicago: 24-26 April
Jersey City: 8-10 May
Houston: 15-17
Minneapolis: 22-23 May
Seattle: 12-14 June
Cayman Islands: 13-15 June
Toronto: 27-28 June
Boston: 17-19 July
 

» Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite
PART I

4-5 June, 1pm-5pm ET

PART II
21-22 June, 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK
PART I

5-6 July, 1pm-5pm ET

PART II
1-2 May, 11am-3pm ET
26-27 July, 9am-1pm

Using Decision Trees
with PrecisionTree to Add
Insight to Decisions

30 May, 11am-3pm ET

Project Risk Assessment
using @RISK

20 August, 9am-1pm ET
 

» Live Webcasts
These complimentary sessions are 30-60 minutes, held via web conference. See industry case studies, software demos, applications, and more.

A Stochastic Simulation Model
for Dairy Business Investment
Decisions

May 24, 11:00am ET
Dr. Jeffrey Bewley
University of Kentucky
» Register

Trial Versions

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

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