Palisade Corporation
E-Focus: Petrobras Uses @RISK for E&P Analysis In This Issue
What’s New

» Petrobras Uses @RISK
   for E&P Analysis

» @RISK Featured in
   Reinsurance Application

» México City Risk Conference
» Las Vegas Risk Conference
   Call for Presenters

» Blog Headlines

Case Study
» Using the DecisionTools
   Suite for a Biofuel
   Plant Analysis

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Scatter Plots

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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2011 Palisade Risk Conferences

Industry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
» Amsterdam: 29-30 March
» México City: 1-2 June
» Rio de Janiero: 14-15 Sept
» Las Vegas: 10-11 Nov

2011 Palisade Roadshow
These seminars are designed to show companies and individuals the benefits of using Palisade solutions – and will also show existing customers how the latest releases can add even more value to their business.
» Sydney: 27 July 2011
» Dublin: 24 August 2011

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Sydney: 20-22 July
Brisbane: 24-25 August Melbourne: 12-13 October

» EMEA & India
London: 2-4 August
London: 6-7 September
Den Haag: 27-29 September
Munich: 11-12 October
London: 25-27 October

» Latin America
México D.F.: 12-14 de julio
Santa Cruz, Bolivia:
   16-18 de agosto
Bogotá, Colombia:
   29-31 de agosto
Buenos Aires, Argentina:
   19-21 de septiembre
Lima, Perú: 4-6 de octubre
Caracas, Venezuela:
   18-20 de octubre

» North America
Kansas City, MO: 6-7 July
Seattle, WA: 19-21 July
Toronto: 2-3 August
Jersey City: 16-17 August
Calgary: 31 Aug. - 1 Sept.
Denver: 13-15 September
Chicago: 27-28 September
Boston: 18-20 October

Live Web Training Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

14-15 July, 1pm-5pm ET
2-3 Nov., 11am-3pm ET

10-11 August, 1pm-5pm ET
17-18 Nov., 11am-3pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

22-23 Sept., 1pm-5pm ET
1-2 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

10-11 October, 1pm-5pm ET
15-16 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
11 July, 11am-3pm ET
7 November, 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

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Petrobras Uses @RISK for E&P Analysis
Recently Brazil-based Petrobras, one of the world’s largest oil companies, implemented a corporate-wide protocol for evaluating the economic risks associated with potential investments. Key risks of interest to the company include those associated with production of oil and natural gas, demand for derivatives, prices of various commodities, and more.

To deal with these risks, Petrobras has integrated @RISK with its in-house analysis software. Using @RISK enables the company to analyze more complex projects, such as those undertaken with outside partners and those involving multiple concessions (specific drilling areas). In addition, @RISK helps reduce the calculation time for projections that used to take thousands of hours.

» Read more about how Petrobras uses @RISK

@RISK Featured in Reinsurance Application in
the Journal Insurance Markets and Companies
A recent issue of the journal Insurance Markets and Companies: Analyses and Actuarial Computations featured the paper “Using Simulation to Support the Reinsurance Decision of a Medical Stop-Loss Provider.” The article, by Lina S. Chan of CP Risk Solutions and Dr. Domingo Joaquin of Illinois State University, uses @RISK to illustrate how simulation modeling can help to guide the reinsurance strategy for medical insurers by evaluating different alternatives.

» Read the full paper

Palisade Risk Conference México
Draws Large and Diverse Delegation
Attracting over 100 delegates, Palisade’s first Risk Conference in México was held in the historic Hacienda de los Morales del Distrito Federal de México on June 1 and 2. The event was attended by professionals from industries as diverse as oil and gas, insurance, healthcare, engineering, and banking. The event included a plenary talk on the use of decision analysis in modeling by modeling expert Dr. Roberto Ley Borrás, as well as a round table discussion of current issues in risk analysis led by Gerardo McQuade of KPMG, Luisarturo Castellanos of CatRiskMéxico, and Palisade consultants Fernando Hernández and Javier Ordóñez. In addition, case studies were presented by dozens of companies and organizations, including PEMEX, KPMG, Universidad Industrial de Santandar, Instituto Mexicano de Petróleo, and many others.

The Palisade conference series continues with Las Vegas and Rio de Janeiro in the fall.

» See more about Palisade conferences
» Read more about the Mexican Conference (in Spanish)

Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas:
Call for Presentations
The Monte Carlo Resort and Casino, November 10-11, 2011
Last year in Las Vegas, the Palisade Risk Conference set a new record for attendance. Help us make history again at this year’s conference on November 10-11 at the Monte Carlo Resort and Casino!

Present Your Case Study in Las Vegas
If you have an interesting application of Palisade software which you would like to present, please send a short abstract to Jami Adams, at The closing date for abstracts to be submitted is August 1, 2011. If you would like to submit an abstract but need more time, please let us know.

All presenters attend the conference and social events at no charge.

» Conference overview
» View last year’s conference schedule and presentations

Palisade Blog Headlines
Smoothing the Rough Places in Supply Chain Management
Monday, June 6, 2011 by Steve Hunt
Recently Software Advice posted a guest blog on supply chain planning by Chad Smith and Carol Ptak of the Demand Driven Institute. Their agenda is to improve the efficiency and agility of supply chains by changing the way manufacturers conceive of Material Requirements Planning.
» Read more

Stress Testing State Budgets
Tuesday, May 31, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
In this time of record-setting budget deficits for states across the US, analyzing different scenarios for balancing state budgets has become all too commonplace. No longer do states have the luxury – if they ever did – of applying the “same old” standard increases across the board without making fundamental changes.
» Read more

Monte Carlo Simulation and Cancer Risk in
Atom Bomb Survivors in Japan

Tuesday, May 17, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
An interesting article appeared in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute in October 2010, in which authors Igor Shuryak, Rainer K. Sachs, and David J. Brenner discuss whether the age at which Japanese victims of the atom bomb were exposed to radiation influenced their likelihood of developing radiation-induced cancer later in life. The study, entitled “Cancer Risks After Radiation Exposure in Middle Age,” is particularly relevant now, given the uncertainty and risk surrounding exposure to radiation from the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
» Read more

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Case Study
Using the DecisionTools Suite
for a Biofuel Plant Analysis

Presented by Scott Mongeau of Biomatica at the Palisade
Risk Conference Amsterdam, March 29, 2011

An energy development ‘risk / reward parity’ level is growing between new petroleum exploration and sustainable energy initiatives. This case uses a biofuel plant case study as an example of how a profitable business case can be made for a sustainable energy project using techniques commonly applied in petroleum exploration and engineering initiatives. The biofuel industry is expected to multiply its production by a factor of 50 by 2020. The uncertainties of government subsidy, tax credits, and loan guarantees are crucial to meeting biofuel profit margins. Stochastic analysis greatly improves the ability to pinpoint risk and to identify mitigation strategies. The case study uses @RISK to model biofuel project NPV, Evolver to suggest plant optimisation strategies, and PrecisionTree to guide strategic decision making. The approaches presented have promise as a due-diligence tool for prospective sustainability entrepreneurs, investors, project managers, and firms.

» Read the full presentation

Product Spotlight
Scatter Plots
@RISK provides scatter plots to show the relationship between simulated outputs and inputs. A scatter plot is an x-y graph showing the values calculated in each iteration of the simulation for two inputs or outputs. A confidence ellipse identifies the region where, at a given confidence level, the x-y values will fall. Scatter graphs can also be standardized so that values from multiple inputs could be more easily compared on a single scatter plot.

Scatter graphs can be created by:

  • Clicking the Scatter Plot icon on a displayed graph and then selecting the cell(s) in Excel whose results you want to include in the plot
  • Selecting one or more outputs or inputs in the @RISK Results Summary window and clicking the Scatter Plot icon.
  • Dragging a bar (representing the input you want to show in the scatter graph) from an output’s tornado graph.
  • Displaying a scatter plot matrix in the Sensitivity Analysis or Scenario Analysis windows
  • Clicking on a correlation matrix in Browse mode displays a scatter plot matrix showing the simulated correlations between the inputs correlated in the matrix.

As with other @RISK graphs, scatter plots will update in real-time when a simulation runs.

» View video on scatter plots from simulation results
» View video on scatter plots from a Torndao graph
» View video on scatter plots in the Sensitivity Window
» Read more about scatter plots

Introducción al análisis de riesgo con @RISK
Presentado por Luis Ywama, Palisade Latinoamérica
07 de julio 2011, 12:00pm EST

Este evento ha sido diseñado para ofrecer una introducción de nivel básico sobre análisis probabilístico y demostrar cómo se puede aplicar la simulación Monte Carlo y otras técnicas a sus análisis comerciales diarios. Si normalmente crea modelos en Excel, ciertamente las soluciones de Palisade podrán ayudarle a tomar decisiones más informadas, y sin moverse de su escritorio. (No hay ningún cargo por este webcast.)
» Regístrate

The Use of @RISK and Economic Value Added in Business Valuation
Presented by Marwaan Karame, Value Based Management Consultant –
Managing Director, Economic Value Advisors
July 13, 2011, 10:00am Eastern Daylight Time

Valuation is a critical part of business decision making, whether it’s to invest in a new technology or to acquire an entire company. Regardless of the investment, there are fundamental principles of finance and economics that determines what something is worth. In this brief introduction, we’ll explore the concepts of Economic Value Added and Free Cash Flow, as well as the key operating drivers of value creation. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

Introduction to @RISK
Presented by Rishi Prabhakar, Palisade Corporation
July 14, 2011, 2:00pm Australia Eastern Standard Time
This webinar will explore some of the ways in which organisations are applying Palisade tools. From oil and gas, insurance and finance through to healthcare, defence and construction, @RISK enhances the decision making capabilities of some of the world’s most successful companies. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

Intuitive Project Management Techniques for @RISK for Project
Presented by John Sponholtz
July 22, 2011, 11:00am Eastern Daylight Time

This live webcast will present some simple, intuitive techniques that present a realistic view of projects using MS Project and Palisade tools such as @RISK for Project. The focus will be to change the way project managers and stakeholders think about projects and explain why the new point of view is required for a project to increase its probability of success. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

Use of Simulation Models in Pricing Health
Insurance and Reinsurance Risk

Presented by Tim Robinson and David Wilson,
Windsor Strategy Partners, LLC
August 11, 2011, 11:00am Eastern Daylight Time

While healthcare claim costs are fairly predictable for large populations, existing pricing models often prove inadequate for that portion of the risk that is the most variable: large or “excess loss” claims typically covered by employer stop loss and other forms of reinsurance for high-cost claims. This live webcast will illustrate some applications of @RISK to solving these problems. Examples will include simulation models designed to quantify capital and surplus requirements for a health reinsurance captive; simulation models designed to price aggregate employer stop loss insurance; and simulation models designed to price aggregating specific or “inner aggregate” corridors in employer stop loss insurance. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

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