Palisade Corporation

In This Issue
What’s New

» Palisade Conference
   Shaping Up to be
   Biggest Yet

» European Roadshow
» New Book Using @RISK
» Upcoming Webcasts
» Palisade Blog Headlines

Case Studies
» Using @RISK in
   Cost Risk Analysis

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Contingent Contract
   Clause Valuation

Palisade Analytics
in the Press

» Personal Computing
» Physical Fitness
» Soil Conservation

In This Issue
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DecisionTools Suite European Roadshow
A series of no-cost, two-hour seminars in cities across Europe. Including live demonstrations of our newest releases.
Europe Autumn 2009
» Register Now

2009 Conference on Risk Analysis, Applications & Training
The 2009 Conference on Risk Analysis, Applications & Training will be held at the Hyatt Regency in Jersey City.
NYC 21-22 October 2009
» Register Now

2009 Health Risk Analysis Forum
A one-day forum covering risk and decision analysis from all angles specific to the healthcare sector. Plus, see @RISK 5.5 in action.
San Diego 2 December 2009
» Register Now

2009 Conference on Risk Analysis, Applications & Training
Palisade tem o prazer de anunciar a Conferência sobre Análise de Risco, Aplicações, e Treinamento de 2009, que irá acontecer no Hotel Sheraton e Centro de Convenções no Leblon.
RIO 11-12 de novembro
de 2009
» Mais Info


Regional Seminars
» Africa
Johannesburg: 4-6 Nov 09

» Australia
Brisbane: 23-24 Sept 09
Sydney: 18-19 Nov 09
Perth: 2-3 Dec 09
Sydney: 16-18 Dec 09

» Brasil
Conferência da Palisade:
Análise de Risco, Aplicações e Treinamento: de 11-12 de novembro de 2009, Rio

» Europe
Oslo: 13-14 Oct 09
London: 17-19 Nov 09

» Latin America
Panamá: 21-23 septiembre 09
Bogotá: 30 septiembre al 2 de octubre 09

» North America
Toronto: 29-30 Sept 09
Las Vegas: 6-8 Oct 09
Chicago: 28-29 Oct 09
Dallas: 11-13 Nov 09
Boston: 18-19 Nov 09
Portland: 2-4 Dec 09
Atlanta: 15-16 Dec 09


Live Web Training
» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
PART I

3-4 Nov, 9am-1pm ET
7-8 Dec, 1pm-5pm ET

PART II
23-24 Sept, 11am-3pm ET
9-10 Nov, 9am-1pm ET
14-15 Dec, 1pm-5pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite
PART I

5-6 Oct, 11am-3pm ET

PART II
12-13 Oct, 11am-3pm ET

5-Part Web Training from our Asia-Pacific Office

» Part 1
Introduction to Simulation
and Modelling Uncertainty

29 Sept, 1-5pm AEDT
20 Oct, 1-5pm AEDT
11 Nov, 1-5pm AEDT
8 Dec, 1-5pm AEDT

» Part 2
Analysing Simulation Output

22 Oct, 1-5pm AEDT

» Part 3
Selecting the Right Distribution

12 Oct, 1-5pm AEDT

» Part 4
Advanced Modelling Techniques

10 Dec, 1-5pm AEDT

» Part 5
Special @RISK Functions

1 Oct, 1-5pm AEDT


Trial Versions
Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

@RISK
The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

PrecisionTree
Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


The DecisionTools Suite

Palisade NYC Conference - e-focus
   

What's New
Palisade Conference Shaping Up to be Biggest Yet
Full Conference Schedule Now Available - Register Early and Save
The 2009 Palisade Conference will be held at the Hyatt Jersey City October 21-22, 2009. Slots are filling up rapidly, drawing decision makers from finance, energy, consulting, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors. The conference offers the opportunity to network with professionals from Unilever, Dresdner Kleinwort, Merck, KeySpan Energy, Indiana University, Columbia University, and many other leading organizations. Thought leaders from Unilever's Finance Academy will deliver the keynote session on using quantitative risk analysis to "Think Clearly."

You can also experience the new @RISK 5.5 and DecisionTools Suite 5.5 through software training sessions and discussion. Real-world case studies covering a wide range of applications are also on tap. With over 30 sessions in total, there is something for everyone at the 2009 Palisade Conference.

» Register now and save $200
» Book your room at the Hyatt for only $239/night, but there are limited rooms available. Call +1 201 469 1234 or click here (www.jerseycity.hyatt.com) and enter code G-PALC


Palisade European Roadshow
The Palisade European Road Show has now started rolling into cities around Europe and the initial events have been well-received by attendees. Istanbul, Aberdeen, Warsaw, Dublin, London, and Manchester have all recently been added as stops on the Road Show, taking the total number of cities on the tour to twenty. The seminars have been designed to show companies and individuals the benefits of using Palisade solutions such as @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite, and also to show existing customers how the latest releases can add even more value to their business.


» See schedule and register

New Book Using @RISK
Introduction to Financial Models for Management and Planning
by James R. Morris and John P. Daley
This new book provides practical instruction on how to develop models for financial management and planning. By working through problems and real-life models, readers will learn how models should be structured to analyze a firm's investment and financing. Monte Carlo simulation with @RISK is emphasized, and a student edition of @RISK is included.

» Learn more and purchase


Upcoming Webcasts
"Taking the Uncertainty Out of Energy Costs”
Presented by Mark Rudd, Rudd Asset Management
September 24, 2009, 11:00am EST

Hospitals use a lot of energy. They are significant users of electricity for such things as lighting, diagnostic equipment, heating, etc. They also use significant amounts of energy in the form of natural gas or fuel oil for such things as building heating, hot water heating, therapy pool heating, kitchen, laundry, etc. Energy costs are a significant part of the costs for healthcare. How can that be brought under control, both in the short term and the long term?
» Register now (There is no charge for this webcast.)

"Mega Project Cost and Schedule Estimates - A History of Denial”
Presented by Glenn Butts, Cost Analysis Offer,
Kennedy Space Center NASA
October 29, 2009, 11:00am EST

This webcast will examine the historical cost and schedule growth data for large projects and discuss the magnitude, which is larger than commonly acknowledged, and reasons why. We will examine historical evidence relative to underestimating both costs and schedules for long-term NASA programs and other large scale projects. We will also look at how skewed confidence levels resulting from ultra-optimistic estimates can jeopardize program continuance. Furthermore, this presentation will examine detail accuracies and discuss methods of risk quantification, including the use of tools such as @RISK.
» Register now (There is no charge for this webcast.)


Palisade Blog Headlines
Have confidence in your analysis!
Monday, September 21, 2009
Confidence intervals are the most valuable statistical tools available to decision makers, and according a recent Six Sigma IQ article written by Dr. Andrew Sleeper of Successful Statistics, they are not being used as frequently as they should. Sleeper’s article, "Have Confidence in Your Statistical Analysis!: Learning How to Use Confidence Intervals" does an excellent job illustrating why point estimates are useless for making decisions, and how to determine the best confidence interval to use.

» Read more

The Analysis of Breathtaking Risk
Friday, September 18, 2009
With the frequent press reports of the probability of an epidemic of the so-called Swine Flu (the H1N1 virus) , I've been surprised that there has been so little published about how the well-publicized predictions are made. Last month, however, specialists from University of California, Davis, the Washington (D.C.) Hospital Center, and a private consulting group published a research note about their risk analysis model that predicts the incidence of acute respiratory failure caused by the new flu.
» Read more

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Case Study
Using @RISK in Cost Risk Analysis
@RISK can be used to model cost uncertainty and risk events that will affect the total project cost. This can be done using a customized VBA interface and simulation model in Excel, so that users can run the model without learning how to use @RISK. Using a custom interface, this webcast shows how to model cost ranges and risk registers through the use of probability distributions. It also discusses how to measure correlation between variables, how to add a correlation matrix into a model, and the impact of correlation in a result. Once the simulation model is run, we learn how to assess the contingency required and develop mitigation strategies.

» View the recorded webcast


Product Spotlight
@RISKContingent Contract
Clause Valuation

Modeling Uncertain Number of Events,
Each with Uncertain Parameters

Often in contract negotiations, a supplier of a product or service may agree with customers to pay a penalty if certain performance targets have not been met. In many cases, the supplier does not really have a good idea of the true possible impact of this clause, for example in terms of the average penalty that should be expected.  

In this model, we use Monte Carlo simulation to assess such penalties depending on various performance levels.  

The model could be extended (and explored in more detail in Palisade training courses) to evaluating whether one or more investment proposals that would improve performance (e.g. by reducing the variability or improving the average performance) should be accepted. The costs and benefits of each these projects could be compared in a single simulation using the Simtable feature.  

download the modelDownload the model: PenaltyClause.xls


Palisade Software Techniques in the News
Personal Computing
A Website to Help You Make Decisions
Technique: Decision Analysis   » see PrecisionTree 5.5
Source: CNET Asia, September 3, 2009

Flickr co-founder Caterina Fake has invested in Hunch.com, a new website that uses machine learning to help people make decisions.

Physical Fitness
Assessing the Risk of Exercise
Technique: Decision Trees   » see @RISK 5.5
Source: Los Angeles Times, August 18, 2009

A new study based on Monte Carlo simulation finds that, for most people, it is not worthwhile to seek a doctor's advice before beginning an exercise regime.

Soil Conservation
Mapping Future Erosion
Technique: Neural Networks   » see NeuralTools 5.5
Source: Science Daily, August 17, 2009

Pairing a GPS system with a neural network, scientists at the University of Kentucky have begun mapping the likely paths of erosion in the Bluegrass State.

 
 
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