Palisade Conference Shaping Up to be Biggest Yet
Full Conference Schedule Now Available
Register Early and Save
The 2009 Palisade Conference will be held at the Hyatt Jersey City October 21-22, 2009. Slots are filling up rapidly, drawing decision makers from finance, energy, consulting, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors. The conference offers the opportunity to network with professionals from Unilever, Dresdner Kleinwort, Merck, KeySpan Energy, Indiana University, Columbia University, and many other leading organizations. Thought leaders from Unilever's Finance Academy will deliver the keynote session on using quantitative risk analysis to "Think Clearly."
You can also experience the new @RISK 5.5 and DecisionTools Suite 5.5 through software training sessions and discussion. Real-world case studies covering a wide range of applications are also on tap. With over 30 sessions in total, there is something for everyone at the 2009 Palisade Conference.
» Register now and save $200
» Book your room at the Hyatt for only $239/night, but there are limited rooms available. Call +1 201 469 1234 or click here (www.jerseycity.hyatt.com) and enter code G-PALC
The Palisade European Road Show has now started rolling into cities around Europe and the initial events have been well-received by attendees. Istanbul, Aberdeen, Warsaw, Dublin, London, and Manchester have all recently been added as stops on the Road Show, taking the total number of cities on the tour to twenty. The seminars have been designed to show companies and individuals the benefits of using Palisade solutions such as @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite, and also to show existing customers how the latest releases can add even more value to their business.
» See schedule and register
New Book Using @RISK
Introduction to Financial Models for Management and Planning
by James R. Morris and John P. Daley
This new book provides practical instruction on how to develop models for financial management and planning. By working through problems and real-life models, readers will learn how models should be structured to analyze a firm's investment and financing. Monte Carlo simulation with @RISK is emphasized, and a student edition of @RISK is included.
» Learn more and purchase
"Taking the Uncertainty Out of Energy Costs”
Presented by Mark Rudd, Rudd Asset Management
September 24, 2009, 11:00am EST
Hospitals use a lot of energy. They are significant users of electricity for such things as lighting, diagnostic equipment, heating, etc. They also use significant amounts of energy in the form of natural gas or fuel oil for such things as building heating, hot water heating, therapy pool heating, kitchen, laundry, etc. Energy costs are a significant part of the costs for healthcare. How can that be brought under control, both in the short term and the long term?
» Register now (There is no charge for this webcast.)
"Mega Project Cost and Schedule Estimates - A History of Denial”
Presented by Glenn Butts, Cost Analysis Offer,
Kennedy Space Center NASA
October 29, 2009, 11:00am EST
This webcast will examine the historical cost and schedule growth data for large projects and discuss the magnitude, which is larger than commonly acknowledged, and reasons why. We will examine historical evidence relative to underestimating both costs and schedules for long-term NASA programs and other large scale projects. We will also look at how skewed confidence levels resulting from ultra-optimistic estimates can jeopardize program continuance. Furthermore, this presentation will examine detail accuracies and discuss methods of risk quantification, including the use of tools such as @RISK.
» Register now (There is no charge for this webcast.)
Palisade Blog Headlines
Have confidence in your analysis!
Monday, September 21, 2009
Confidence intervals are the most valuable statistical tools available to decision makers, and according a recent Six Sigma IQ article written by Dr. Andrew Sleeper of Successful Statistics, they are not being used as frequently as they should. Sleeper’s article, "Have Confidence in Your Statistical Analysis!: Learning How to Use Confidence Intervals" does an excellent job illustrating why point estimates are useless for making decisions, and how to determine the best confidence interval to use.
» Read more
The Analysis of Breathtaking Risk
Friday, September 18, 2009
With the frequent press reports of the probability of an epidemic of the so-called Swine Flu (the H1N1 virus) , I've been surprised that there has been so little published about how the well-publicized predictions are made. Last month, however, specialists from University of California, Davis, the Washington (D.C.) Hospital Center, and a private consulting group published a research note about their risk analysis model that predicts the incidence of acute respiratory failure caused by the new flu.
» Read more
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Using @RISK in Cost Risk Analysis
@RISK can be used to model cost uncertainty and risk events that will affect the total project cost. This can be done using a customized VBA interface and simulation model in Excel, so that users can run the model without learning how to use @RISK. Using a custom interface, this webcast shows how to model cost ranges and risk registers through the use of probability distributions. It also discusses how to measure correlation between variables, how to add a correlation matrix into a model, and the impact of correlation in a result. Once the simulation model is run, we learn how to assess the contingency required and develop mitigation strategies.
» View the recorded webcast
Modeling Uncertain Number of Events,
Each with Uncertain Parameters
Often in contract negotiations, a supplier of a product or service may agree with customers to pay a penalty if certain performance targets have not been met. In many cases, the supplier does not really have a good idea of the true possible impact of this clause, for example in terms of the average penalty that should be expected.
In this model, we use Monte Carlo simulation to assess such penalties depending on various performance levels.
The model could be extended (and explored in more detail in Palisade training courses) to evaluating whether one or more investment proposals that would improve performance (e.g. by reducing the variability or improving the average performance) should be accepted. The costs and benefits of each these projects could be compared in a single simulation using the Simtable feature.
Download the model: PenaltyClause.xls
A Website to Help You Make Decisions
Technique: Decision Analysis » see PrecisionTree 5.5
Source: CNET Asia, September 3, 2009
Flickr co-founder Caterina Fake has invested in Hunch.com, a new website that uses machine learning to help people make decisions.
Assessing the Risk of Exercise
Technique: Decision Trees » see @RISK 5.5
Source: Los Angeles Times, August 18, 2009
A new study based on Monte Carlo simulation finds that, for most people, it is not worthwhile to seek a doctor's advice before beginning an exercise regime.
Mapping Future Erosion
Technique: Neural Networks » see NeuralTools 5.5
Source: Science Daily, August 17, 2009
Pairing a GPS system with a neural network, scientists at the University of Kentucky have begun mapping the likely paths of erosion in the Bluegrass State.