Air, Land, and Sea:
@RISK Used for Transportation Planning in Denmark
The Centre for Traffic and Transport (CTT) is part of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). It is responsible for undertaking research into optimizing traffic and transport systems and in this capacity it develops evaluation models for roads and road building. This requires an in-depth understanding of the effect that any projects (both directly and indirectly related) will have on traffic behavior, as well as the overall social, economic and environmental impact of such schemes.
The CTT has developed an appraisal model for the Danish Road Directorate (a sub-sector of the Danish Ministry of Transport), the focus of which is on building roads and evaluating large new infrastructure projects such as proposals for bridges. In addition, the CTT carries out investigative data gathering operations such as the Scandic Bridge project that undertook preliminary research into freight trade between the east and west Baltic Sea regions.
Increasingly recognized as an expert in its field, the CTT is also commissioned to carry out in-depth analysis overseas. In particular it has assisted with planning Greenland’s infrastructure, including the evaluation of the most appropriate location for the country’s new main airport at Nuuk.
A key objective for the CTT is to promote the potential of the DTU in order that it can develop further collaborations, both in Denmark and around the world.
The Role of Risk Management at the CTT
Therefore, within the CTT and in a wider environment, the DMG encourages structured risk analysis to be built into transport schemes and proposals in order that a more accurate picture is obtained.
@RISK for Cost-Benefit Analysis
In particular, the CTT does extensive analysis to produce a cost-benefit ratio that will determine whether a project is optimal from a socio-economic viewpoint or not. Very simply, this entails weighing up if the benefits of a venture justify its economic, social and environmental cost.
For example, when building a new road, the CTT needs to calculate how much time it will save people and whether it will reduce accidents. But because new roads are often physically longer than the old versions they replace, it also needs to analyze the increase in pollution that will be generated by vehicles traveling a greater distance. The amount of land/housing affected is also considered and the impact of the net change in traffic noise is included in the assessment modeling.
Referring back to the evaluation work in Greenland, the CTT developed a decision support tool to assess and balance the available options. From an economic point of view, it was critical that the new airport at Nuuk accounted for increases in air travel and supported improvements for the maximum number of people using the facility (taking into account that Greenland is a large country with relatively few towns and a small population).
@RISK for More Effective use of Government Budget
Expert risk analysis makes a more thorough prediction, and therefore provides the CTT with better information on which to base its decision/recommendation as to whether or not the road should be built.
@RISK for Better East-West Freight Transport
@RISK for Bespoke Systems