CIO Magazine Feature Stars @RISK Users
ARTICLE INTRODUCES RISK ANALYSIS TO A NEW AUDIENCE
21 July 2003, Newfield, NY - The July 1 issue of CIO magazine features two longtime users of @RISK in “Playing with Fire,” an article introducing risk analysis to chief information officers. The award-winning magazine circulates to about 140,000 CIOs, a great many of whom are unaware of risk analysis, and the article focused on the basics of Monte Carlo simulation, quantification of probability, and decision trees. Leading off “Playing with Fire” is Willy Aspinall, a British expert on catastrophe risk who has evaluated the probabilities of such disparate events as volcano eruptions and airline crashes.
Right now risk analysis is not widely used in IT management, and the magazine uses its interview with Art Misyan at Merck to make clear how and why information officers should incorporate risk analysis in their operations. Misyan is Director of Foreign Exchange at Merck, and he uses @RISK to evaluate the impact of volatility in foreign currency values. He says that in contrast to the complexities of his own analyses, IT executive tend to have fairly simplistic ideas about results:
“Risk[analysis] gives you the ability to look at a whole range of outcomes, but IT looks at only two possible outcomes, he says. “Either you hit deadlines or budgets, or you don’t.”
IT needs to begin to think more in probabilities, Misyan says, not ones and zeros. The best way to start, he suggests, is for the CIO to formalize the risk process, to build in ways to identify and track risks.
The CIO article is one of a number of recent publications to feature Palisade in coverage for IT executives. Also among these was a report on simulation software organized by Gartner, the premier IT analyst firm.
CIO’s “Playing with Fire” in its entirety.
» More information about how Art Misyan uses @RISK at Merck.
» More information about how Willy Aspinall uses @RISK to assess the risks of catastrophic events.