Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Air Emission Inventories in Kuwait

In This Issue
What's New
» @RISK Helps Monitor Air
   Pollution in Kuwait

» Mind Mapping Software Blog
   Gives BigPicture Rave

» Palisade Client Discusses
   Project Success
   in Economia

Updates from Palisade
» Palisade's 2015 Regional
   Risk Conferences

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Projecting Oil Prices Under
   Conditions of Uncertainty

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue

2014 Palisade Risk Conferences
An intensive day of networking, software training presented by Palisade trainers and consultants, and real-world case studies presented by industry experts. Join us at an event near you. More dates to come for 2015.

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   11-12 November

Regional Seminars
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Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico:
  17 al 18 de junio

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10-11 June, 11am-3pm EDT
17-18 June, 11am-3pm EDT  

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Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK

2-3 Sept, 11am-3pm EDT
23-24 Sept, 11am-3pm EDT

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Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

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@RISK Helps Monitor Air Pollution in Kuwait
Like most countries across the globe, Kuwait faces air pollution issues. To combat these problems, the Kuwait Environment Public Authority (KEPA) works hard to identify and categorize sources that cause, or contribute significantly to air pollution. KEPA created the Kuwait Implementation Plan (KIP) and divided the country into Air Quality Control Zones based on monitored ambient air quality. The United Nations Development program (UNDP) worked with KEPA to create a national emissions inventory that would provide them with a countrywide air modeling capability which would enable a source permit and monitoring program. Brian Freeman, Team Leader for Air Regulatory Management Systems at UNDP, found that Kuwaiti businesses needed to better understand their contribution to air quality, but realized the issue was complex.

Indeed, wind conditions and production output from industrial sources can contribute to a high concentration of pollution in an area. When the weather changes, so can pollution concentration. @RISK became an integral part of the inventory process, allowing for more detailed information, “As part of the analysis, we needed to provide input parameters into complex air dispersion models,” said Freeman. “These parameters included physical dimensions such as stack heights and diameters that were easy to identify. The more important parameters were independent variables such as release rates, temperature, and flow rates. This was where Palisade’s @RISK was particularly helpful. We were able to model the worst-case to best-case scenarios for each parameter in our models to show long-term exposure, as well as contributions from individual sources.”

UNDP now employs @RISK to correlate local industries’ impact on air quality in Kuwait. Using Monte Carlo simulation, UNDP looks at potential ranges of impacts. The analyses can show quite conclusively, for instance, that a particular area with specific companies may not be the sole contributors to poor air quality, and contribute significantly less than initially considered. Freeman concluded, “The ongoing work with KEPA has meant Palisade’s products are a very integral part of the success of this program. Pretty much if we don’t use @RISK at least once a day, it means we’re on vacation.”

  » Read the complete case study

@RISKThe ongoing work with KEPA has meant
     Palisade’s products are a very integral part of
     the success of this program. Pretty much if we
     don’t use @RISK at least once a day, it means
     we’re on vacation.
Trial Versions

                        Brian Freeman, Team Leader for Air Regulatory
                        Management Systems at UNDP

Mind Mapping Software Blog Gives
BigPicture Rave Review

BigPicture has garnered an in-depth and enthusiastic review from the Mind Mapping Software Blog, a leading source for news, trends and resources related to visual mapping. Chuck Frey, widely regarded as one of the leading experts on visual mapping and visual thinking, explored the software's numerous features and says, "You'll be very impressed.”

Frey investigates BigPicture's many key features, such as its diagram-building capabilities (“Very cool! This is a capability that you won’t find in any dedicated mind mapping or diagramming program.”); data mapping (“If your eyes glaze over when you look at a large number of columns and rows of data in Excel like I do, you’ll immediately appreciate this aspect of BigPicture."); and its org chart functions (“This promises to be a big time-saver for human resources managers!").

After exploring these flexible features, Frey concludes: "If you’re looking for an affordable, easy-to-use diagramming and mind mapping tool and you already use Excel, then you owe it to yourself to check out BigPicture. I think you’ll be very impressed with its excellent toolset and ease of use. This is backed up by a help file and videos that actually do an excellent job of explaining how to perform common tasks. That’s all too rare today!"

  » Read the full Mind Mapping Software Blog review.
  » Download your complimentary version of BigPicture.

Palisade Client Discusses Project
Success in Economia

Visual Reporting, the Denmark-based business analytical reporting consultancy, used @RISK to help the Danish Government comply with Danish legislation requiring all Government related IT business cases that exceed €1.33m to be risk-assessed.

Laurits Søgaard Nielsen, CEO at Visual Reporting, believes Monte Carlo simulation used within @RISK was integral to the solution that Visual Reporting implemented for the Danish Government, and he discussed that success in the January 2015 issue of Economia, which covers technical accountancy content, business, economics, management and finance. In the piece, Why do IT projects fail?, Nielsen gives his insight:

“The main reason large IT projects fail is that they grow in complexity, and humans are very poor at handling complex tasks,” says Laurits Søgaard Nielsen, CEO of Virtual Reporting. “But often the creation of a business case does not follow best practice and can be severely affected by managers wanting to influence the process of project approval. ‘I want this project to happen’ often outweighs the poor business case.”

With Palisade’s risk and decision analysis tools, complex tasks and projects can be handled with confidence.

  » Read the complete case study here.

Palisade's 2015 Risk Conferences
The Palisade Risk Conferences have brought together risk and decision analysis professionals from Fortune Global 500 corporations to small consulting practices, and across every industry. Join us in a city near you:

Munich: 18 June Register Now
Toronto – Banking & Finance Focus:
   23 June
Register Now
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Moscow: 1 Oct Register Now
Zurich: 6 Oct Register Now
London: 22 Oct Register Now
Dubai: 2 Nov Register Now
Our Annual 2-Day Risk Conference will be held in New Orleans, November 11-12, at the Hilton New Orleans Riverside. Register now for our biggest event, with multiple tracks of software training and industry presentations.

  » See the global list of conferences for 2015

Product Spotlight
Add your own Distribution to @RISK
From Palisade's online Knowledge Base

In some instances you may wish to have @RISK draw random numbers from a particular distribution that is not in the Define Distributions dialog. If this holds true for your situation, @RISK does give you the ability to use a formula for the inverse CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function), if a closed form exists. The input to that formula is a RiskUniform(0,1) which provides a randomly selected cumulative probability; then your inverse CDF formula converts that to an x value. Click on the link below to learn more.

 » Download the example model and step-by-step instructions


Introduction to BigPicture

Presented by: Palisade
   26 May - 1pm EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now
   05 June - 10am EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now
   10 June - 1pm EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now

Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by: Rafael Hartke, Palisade
   27 May - 1pm EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now
   17 June - 1pm EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now
   09 July - 11am CEST-Central Europe / 5am EDT   » Register Now
   17 July - 1pm EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now
   13 Aug. - 11am CEST-Central Europe / 5am EDT   » Register Now

Introduction to Risk Analysis using @RISK
(Oil and Gas Applications Focus)

   Presented by: Palisade
   11 June - 5am EDT-Eastern US / 11am CEST   » Register Now

Oil and Gas Applications of @RISK and DecisionTools Suite
   Presented by: Palisade
   16 June - 5am EDT-Eastern US / 11am CEST   » Register Now

Cost Estimation and Risk Registers using @RISK
   Presented by: Rafael Hartke, Palisade
   14 July - 1pm EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now

Haciendo optimizaciones con RISKOptimizer 6.3 en Español
   Presentador: Luis Ywama, Palisade

   22 mayo - 10am CST-Central US/ 6pm CEST   » Regístrate Ahora

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
avec @RISK et DécisionTools Suite

   Presentador: Manuel Carmona, Palisade

   9 juin - 11am CEST-Central Europe/ 5am EDT   » Inscrivez-vous

Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse
mit @RISK und der DecisionTools Suite

   Presenter: Sascha Stange, Palisade

   2. Juni - 11am CEST-Central Europe/ 5am EDT   » Jetzt Registrieren

» See complete Webcast schedule


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and Decision Analysis

Palisade is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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