@RISK Modeling Tips
@RISK Drives DNV GL’s Risk
One of DNV GL’s customers, ROAF (Romerike avfallsforedling), a Norwegian-based inter-municipal waste management company, wanted to invest in a new waste management system in order to meet EU targets of 50% minimum recycling of domestic waste by 2020. It had several recommendations delivered by a supplier, but needed to ensure that the final decision fell on the most cost-effective and sustainable system – and guarantee that all risks had been considered along the way, as well as an independent quality assessment of recommendations.
DNV GL worked with the customer to create a solid foundation for decision making by using @RISK to first understand and simplify assessment criteria, and then evaluate and report risks against these same criteria. "The main reason we chose @RISK is that it adds that critical uncertainty that is present in all investments and decisions into the model," says Nicolaj Tidemand, Principal Specialist at DNV GL. "This gives invaluable information to decision makers, with the integration into Microsoft Excel making the tool very flexible."
He continued, "Risk management offers the customer more control over the risks related to the business and what actions can be taken to ensure a successful business outcome. Quantitative investment risk analysis gives the customer more information about the risks related to their investment decision, the flexibility of Palisade’s @RISK supports simple cost risk models and complex quantitative risk analyses that could be tailored to the customer’s needs."
2014 Palisade Regional Risk Conferences
Sydney: 21 August – Register Now
Be sure to save the date for Palisade's premiere two-day Risk Conference to be held in New Orleans at the Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel. This is a must-attend event, with four tracks of informative sessions that will give attendees opportunities to learn, network, and explore the broad range of applications our software provides.
This new business case software model for the Danish Government now integrates all the aspects required to build a solid business case that takes every aspect of the risk associated into account. It helps users within the organization input data in a structured and well-formed manner, as well as standardizing the output for the management team so that business cases from all branches of the Danish Government can be easily compared.
In the game of craps a player tosses two dice. If on the first toss a 2, 3, or 12 results the player loses. If on the first toss the player rolls a 7 or 11 the player wins. Otherwise the player continues tossing the die until she either matches the number thrown on the first roll (called the point) or tosses a 7. If you roll your point before rolling a 7 you win. If you roll a 7 before you roll your point you lose. By complex calculations it can be shown that the player wins at craps 49.3% of the time. Use @RISK and the example file below to verify this.
Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis
Business Forecasting and Simulation using
Schedule Risk Analysis for a Large Development Program
Using VBA for Excel and the XDK to Improve
Optimisation with RISKOptimizer—Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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