Project Portfolio Management at Novartis Pharma

Project Portfolio Management at
Novartis Pharmaceuticals

In an award-winning case study, researchers at the London Business School used @RISK, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer to demonstrate some of the analytical techniques used by Novartis for R&D project selection and prioritization.

R&D project selection and prioritization problems are a recurrent issue of strategic importance for Novartis. In the pharmaceutical industry, project portfolio decisions are crucial to the viability and success of a company, and require huge investment commitments. The case study developed by the LBS researchers illustrates the usefulness of management science methods for this purpose. In particular, decision analysis, simulation and optimization are used to analyze and optimize project portfolio decisions. This is relevant in today’s pharmaceutical industry, as it is facing an increasingly tough environment and needs to improve the quality of decision-making in order to maintain profitability.

» Case Study: Project Portfolio Management at Novartis Pharma
» More about London Business School

@RISK I have always found the sales and
      technical teams at Palisade to be excellent
      in all the dealings I've had with them over
      the years.
Trial Versions

                        Ian Lansdown, Scotiabank Technology Centre,
                        University of Manitoba

Recent School Adoptions

Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2012, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:

US and Canada:

  Coastal Carolina University
Colorado School of Mines
Columbia University
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Gonzaga University
Illinois Institute of Technology
Illinois State University
Loyola University Maryland
McGill University
Nebraska Methodist College
New Mexico State University
North Dakota State University
Northern Arizona University
Penn State University
Purdue University
Rice University
Stevens Institute of Technology
Syracuse University
University of Arkansas
University of Oklahoma
University of Richmond
University of Rochester
University of Texas at Dallas
University of Texas, Austin
University of Toronto
Western University
Yale University


  AGH University of Science & Technology - Poland
Amity University - India
Centros Culturales de Mexico AC - Mexico
City University London - United Kingdom
Fundação de Assistência e Educação Faesa - Brazil
Hochschule f. angew Wissensch. FH Ingolstadt - Germany
Instituto Politécnico de Leiri - Portugal
London Business School - United Kingdom
RMIT University - Australia
School of Econ of Sichuan University - China
Universidad Autonoma de Nayarit - Mexico
Universidad de Talca - Chile
Universidad del Istmo - Guatemala
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas - Peru
Universidad Tecnologica Equinoccial - Ecuador
Universitaet Bielefeld - Germany
University of Tilburg - Netherlands
Licensing Options

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:


Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation. Palisade offers a complimentary Live Web Training session to all instructors who order a Course License.
» Learn more

Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more

Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more

Get DecisionTools Suite 6 for your course by contacting:

AddressPalisade Academic Sales    
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000

@RISK It is very important for these new
     decision makers to be entirely
     comfortable with the overwhelming
     amount and complexity of information
     they’ll have to deal with when they leave
     the school for that first big job. And we’re
     convinced that @RISK is the tool that can
     provide the most sophisticated perspective
     on the information they’ll use for decision
Trial Versions

                                   Barbara Ostdiek, Finance Professor,
                                   Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of
                                   Management, Rice University

Teaching Tips & Examples

The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way. Each month we feature an example or tip illustrating how students can gain "real world" benefits by implementing quantitative analysis.

Differential Pricing of Models
Excerpted from Evolver Solutions for Business,
by Roy L. Nersesian, published by Palisade

A company makes three models of a product: premium, standard, and economy. The standard product sells for $70 with a manufacturing cost of $40. A premium model has additional features with a cost of $50 whereas the economy model lacks certain features with a cost of $35. The question is what should be the price for the premium and economy models.

Palisade Download the example spreadsheet and
    step-by-step instructions

Tech Tip of the Month

Summary Trend Graphs
A Summary graph displays how risk changes across a range of output or input cells. You can create a summary graph for an output range, or select individual inputs or outputs to compare in a summary graph. Summary graphs have two forms — Summary Trend graphs and Summary Box Plot graphs.

Summary Graphs

Each of these graphs can be made by:

  • Clicking the Summary Graph icon at the bottom of a graph window and then selecting the cell(s) in Excel whose results you want to include in the graph.
  • Selecting the rows in the @RISK Results Summary Window for the outputs, or inputs, you wish to include in the summary graph, then clicking the Summary Graph icon at the bottom of the window (or right-clicking in the table), and selecting Summary Trend or Summary Box Plot.

A Summary Trend graph is especially useful in displaying trends such as how risk changes across time. If, for example, a range of 10 output cells contained Profit in years 1 through 10 of a project, the Summary Trend graph for this range shows how your risk changed across the 10 year period. The narrower the band, the less the uncertainty about your Profit estimates. Conversely, the wider the band the greater the possible variance in Profit and the greater the risk. The center line of the Summary Trend graph represents the trend in mean value across the range. The two outer bands above the mean are one standard deviation above the mean and the 95th percentile. The two outer bands below the mean are one standard deviation below the mean and the 5th percentile. The definition of these bands can be changed using the Trend tab in the Graph Options dialog box.

» See more in the @RISK manual

Textbook of the Month

The DecisionTools Suite is included in dozens of major textbooks, and is a key component of more titles every year. Authors use the DecisionTools Suite to illustrate key analytical concepts and build examples demonstrating the value of quantitative techniques in business, OR, and engineering.

Essentials of Modern Business Statistics
with Microsoft Excel, 5th Edition
By David R. Anderson; Thomas A. Williams; Dennis J. Sweeney, Published 2012

From the renowned author team that has been writing market-leading business statistics textbooks for more than 20 years, this book provides a brief introduction to business statistics that balances a conceptual understanding of statistics with the real-world application of statistical methodology. The latest version of Microsoft Excel 2010, is integrated throughout the text, showing step-by-step instructions and screen captures to enhance student learning. The fourth edition contains the same student learning features that have made ASW products best-sellers for years, including the problem-scenario approach and real-world examples that introduce statistical techniques. The latest DecisionTools Suite software is utilized and included with the text as well.

This new edition has been updated for Excel 2010.

» Learn more from the publisher
» See a list of books bundled with Palisade software

Featured White Paper

Professors, PhD candidates, practitioners and others often use the DecisionTools Suite as part of a complex analysis to address important problems. These analyses are published in white papers. Each month we will feature a different academic white paper addressing a wide range of issues.

Abundance of Northwest Atlantic Harp Seals (1960 – 2008)
M. O. Hammill and Garry Stenson, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat, Research Document 2008/077

The impacts of different catch options on the Northwest Atlantic harp seal population were examined to provide science advice for the 2009 harp seal hunt, using the same model formulation reviewed by the National Marine Mammal Peer Review committee at the 2005 assessment. The model was adapted to function within an Excel spreadsheet and incorporated uncertainty in the parameters using @RISK.

Palisade  Read the full paper here

Academic Live Webcast

Experts using Palisade software share examples and teaching tips. Register online at no charge.

Modeling Multi-Staged Investments
with @RISK

To be presented by Eric Torkia, MASc, Technology Partnerz Ltd
July 25, 2013, 11:00am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)

When planning a multi-staged investment such as new product development or the deployment of a new asset consisting of multiple stage gates, the consequences on analyzing NPV risk are substantial. This complimentary live webcast will show you how to model multiple gates as well as their impact on financial performance. Also presented in this model are how to assess completion stages and probabilities of investment success.

» Read more details about the webcast and register here
» See complete Webcast schedule


The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
Textbooks using Palisade software

In This Issue

» Project Portfolio
   Management at
   Novartis Pharma

» Recent School Adoptions

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &

   Differential Pricing of Models

» Tech Tip
   Summary Trend Graphs

» Textbook of the Month
   Essentials of Modern
   Business Statistics with
   Microsoft Excel,
   5th Edition

» Featured White Paper
   Abundance of Northwest
   Atlantic Harp Seals

» Academic Live Webcasts
   Modeling Multi-Staged
   Investments with @RISK

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

Keep in Touch

PalisadeClick to chat live with
a sales representative


2013 Palisade Risk Conferences
These events include industry experts presenting a selection of real-world case studies, practical software workshops and training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. Also, be sure to sign up for an Expert Session, in which you can have an expert review your model and answer questions, one-on-one, at no charge!
» Santiago de Chile:
   19 March

» São Paulo: 21 March
» Johannesburg: 25 April
» Tokyo: 14 May
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» Las Vegas: 20-21 November

» Training Seminars
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Moscow: 11-13 September
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Milan: 15-17 October
London: 22-24 October
Johannesburg: 29-31 October

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Lima: 3-5 de septiembre
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Panamá: 1-3 de octubre
Bogotá: 29-31 de octubre

North America
Trinidad and Tobago:
  23-25 July
New York City: 30-31 July
Calgary: 6-8 August
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Chicago: 27-28 August
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Montreal: 1-2 October
Dallas: 1-3 October
Chicago: 15-17 October
Washington, DC:
   29-30 October


» Trade Shows
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New Orleans
30 September - 2 October

6-9 October
PMI Global Congress

New Orleans
26-29 October

EMEA & India
Stavanger, Norway
19-21 August

Paris, France
16-20 September

Mishref, Kuwait
8-10 October


» Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite

9-10 Dec., 9am-1pm ET

1- 2 August, 1pm-5pm ET
19-20 Dec., 9am-1pm ET

Project Risk Assessment
using @RISK

18-19 Sept., 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK

31 Oct. - 1 Nov., 1pm-5pm ET

14-15 Nov., 1pm-5pm ET

Trial Versions

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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