E-Focus: @RISK and DecisionTools Suite 6.1 Now Available in Seven Languages

In This Issue
What’s New
» @RISK and DecisionTools
   Suite 6.1 Now Available
   in Seven Languages

» @RISK and DecisionTools
   Suite Maintenance Update

» DNV Use of @RISK for Solar
   Energy Project featured in
   Risk and Insurance Magazine

» Palisade Launches Column
   in Oil & Gas Monitor

» Upcoming Palisade
   Risk Conferences

Case Study
» Testing Assumptions of
   Normality for Asset Returns
   at Curtin University

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Production Planning with
   Uncertain Demand

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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2013 Palisade Risk Conferences
These events include industry experts presenting a selection of real-world case studies, practical software workshops and training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. Also, be sure to sign up for an Expert Session, in which you can have an expert review your model and answer questions, one-on-one, at no charge!
» Santiago de Chile: 19 March
» São Paulo: 21 March
» Johannesburg: 25 April
» Tokyo: 14 May
» Shanghai: 16 May
» London: 11 June
» Frankfurt: 13 June
» Las Vegas: 20-21 November

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Auckland: 22-23 May
Sydney: 5-6 June
Perth: 19-20 June
Kuala Lumpur: 3-4 July
Melbourne: 17-18 July
Brisbane: 7-8 August
Adelaide: 21-22 August

» Brasil
São Paulo: 6 - 10 maio
Brasilia: 3-7 junho

» EMEA & India
Abu Dhabi: 14-16 May
London: 4-6 June
Paris: 10-12 June
London: 16-18 July

» Latin America
Bogotá: 4-6 de junio

» North America
New York City: 1-2 May
Houston: 8-9 May*
Seattle: 15-16 May*
St. Louis: 20-22 May
Detroit: 29-30 May
Calgary: 4-6 June
New Orleans: 19-20 June
Portland: 19-20 June
Toronto: 25-27 June
Cincinnati: 9-10 July
Houston: 16-18 July**
New York City: 30-31 July*
Calgary: 6-8 August**
Boston: 13-15 August
Chicago: 27-28 August*
*Project Risk Assessment Seminar
**Special Oil and Gas Seminar

Live Web Training
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

1-2 May, 9am-1pm ET
31 Oct.- 1 Nov. 1pm-5pm ET

15-16 May, 9am-1pm ET
14-15 November 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite

11-12 July, 1pm-5pm ET
9-10 December, 9am-1pm ET

25-26 July, 1pm-5pm ET
19-20 December, 9am-1pm ET

Project Risk Assessment
using @RISK

18-19 September, 1pm-5pm ET


Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
» Español
» Português
» Deutsch
» Français
» 日本語版
» 中文版

Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite

Intel and the Intel logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.

@RISK and DecisionTools Suite 6.1
Now Available in Seven Languages

The current version of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite, version 6.1, has now been fully translated into Spanish, Portuguese, French, German, Japanese, and Chinese. The user interface, example models, video tutorials, help files, and user manuals have all been carefully translated. Users can specify the language at install, and even change languages later — all from the same installer. This is a major benefit to multinational companies seeking to roll out a single risk analysis standard around the world.

@RISK and DecisionTools Suite
Maintenance Update

In addition to the language translations, a maintenance update to @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software has been released. This update – version 6.1.2 – may be downloaded and installed free of charge for customers with maintenance.

 » Download the maintenance update

DNV use of @RISK for Solar Energy Project featured in Risk and Insurance Magazine
The insurance industry publication Risk and Insurance recently featured @RISK in an article discussing the challenges in underwriting and insuring the solar energy industry. As reported by Gregory Morris, Suntech Power, one of the largest solar panel manufacturers, went bankrupt and ceased operations. This signifies a troubling trend -- that almost all of the world’s largest solar panel makers are within a year of going bankrupt.

These solar panel companies typically have lengthy warranties for their products, leaving insurers, investors, and customers unsure of who will honor the warranty if a manufacturer shuts down. On top of this problem, solar panels present significant unknowns in terms of corrosion, design, and other factors.

Det Norske Veritas is a global consultancy that evaluates the technical viability of solar and other renewable energy projects. In its evaluations, DNV relies heavily on @RISK to manage the many unknowns. "That level of risk analysis, including Monte Carlo simulation, is extremely important for solar projects," said Davion Hill, principal engineer with DNV.

 » Read the full article

Palisade Launches Column
in Oil & Gas Monitor

Drawing on its long history and expertise in the oil and gas sector, Palisade has partnered with Oil & Gas Monitor magazine to launch a new online column on the application of risk analysis to the energy industry. Authored by Palisade’s Senior Consultant Rafael Hartke, the column offers up useful insights, examples, and advice on how risk analysis is, and can be, used within the oil and gas industry.

At Palisade, Rafael assists in the development and strategy of quantitative risk analysis methods geared towards the energy industry. He also served as a Financial Engineer in Risk Management at Brazilian-based energy giant Petrobras, where he created risk models for complex investment projects and assessed project risks for medium and large projects. Such projects included analysis of Brazilian Pre-Salt giant fields, projects in the Gulf of Mexico, and offshore infrastructure projects.

In the first two columns, Rafael discusses both the practical challenges oil companies can face when applying risk analysis, as well as how risk analysis can greatly benefit decision making in oil industry projects.

 » Read the first column:
    Practical Challenges of Implementing Risk Analysis in Oil Companies

 » Read the second column:
    Applications and Benefits of Risk Analysis for Decision Making
    in the Oil Industry


Upcoming Palisade Risk Conferences
Attracting nearly 1,000 delegates each year, the Palisade Risk Conferences have become the most important events of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. Each event offers real-world case studies from professional users, as well as software training from Palisade experts. Most offer multiple tracks and the chance to meet one-on-one with technical consultants to address your personal modeling problems.

Upcoming Palisade Risk Conferences include:

 » 2013 Palisade Risk Conference Series

Case Study
Testing Assumptions of Normality for Asset Returns at Curtin University
In a recent case study, Curtin University’s Darren O’Connell discusses how Australian institutes of higher learning are using outdated methods to teach probability and risk. These older techniques often exhibit frequent inaccuracies, and fail to use many commonly-used statistics and methods.

To prove the point, he explored these deficiencies in his doctoral research at Curtin University of Technology (Australia), using Palisade solutions. Having utilized tools such as @RISK in an occupational setting, O’Connell was convinced that the technology offered more efficient and accurate means of teaching risk.

O’Connell’s research sought to highlight the importance of probing beyond standard textbook theory in the world of finance, which assumes that an asset’s return should follow a normal distribution. He found that relying on the assumption of normality—when the true distribution can be better represented by a non-normal distribution—leads to an increase in both the number of violations and the instances of what’s known as “clustering,” a situation which multiplies the level of potential losses sustained. Using Palisade software yielded more accurate results: “The benefits gained from using Palisade software were the ability to select probability distributions from a large universe,” O’Connell said, “This opened up greater statistical modeling possibilities that develop more realistic solutions.”

 » Read the full case study
 » Learn more about Curtin University

Product Spotlight
Production Planning with Uncertain Demand
A common problem faced by firms is determining the optimal amount of goods to produce in the face of unknown demand. This model plans production over the next six months where demand is not known. The company produces three products, and these products compete for labor hours. Each month there are 800 regular-time hours available, and up to 150 overtime hours can be used. The hours used must then be allocated to the three products. Each product has its own production rate (items per labor hour).

Demand levels are estimated with normal distributions, with subsequent months based on preceding months. Backlogs are created where demand exceeds supply, regular and overtime labor costs are considered, and holding costs are calculated. RISKOptimizer is used to minimize the total cost while meeting demand.

 » Download the example model Aggregate Planning.xlsx

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
avec @RISK et DécisionTools Suite (en français)

Présenté par Manuel Carmona
   14 mai 2013, 10h, heure d'été GMT

   » Inscrivez-vous maintenant

The use of @RISK with an Online Investment Portal
Presented by Charlie Strout
Seven Shadow, LLC, Prudena
   16 May 2013 11:00am Eastern Daylight Time

   » Register Now

Introduction to Cost Estimating using @RISK
Presented by Doug Oldfieldu
   30 May 2013 10:00 GMT Summer Time

   » Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con @RISK y DecisiónTools Suite (en español)
Presentado por: Manuel Carmona
   25 de junio - 10am (Madrid Time)

   » Regístrate ahora

Introduction to Risk Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Palisade
   1 August - 10am GMT (Greenwich Mean Time)

   » Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


The Global Leader in Risk
and Decision Analysis

Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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