March Madness Simulations Demonstrate Uncertainty and Decision-Making

Decision Making and Risk Management
at Ruhr University, Germany

Dr. Brigitte Werners in the Department of Management and Economics at Ruhr-University in Bochum, Germany first came to learn of @RISK when it was recommended to her by a colleague. Eight years later, Dr. Werners continues to use @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite in her 120-student undergraduate course Risk Management and Simulation, and her 80-graduate student course, Rational Decision Making.

Says Dr. Werners, “In our courses at the Department of Management and Economics, we teach how to find optimal and robust solutions for complex problems by using mathematical models. Special attention is given to uncertainty, risk, and dynamics of a changing environment. Our diverse application areas are project management, production and service management, logistics, portfolio management and financial risk analysis. We use the applications @RISK and PrecisionTree to identify risk in different situations and to support decisions considering various risk attitudes.”

Aside from being the Chair in Management, specializing in Operations Research & Accounting, Dr. Werners has authored or co-authored a number of publications applying DecisionTools software. Recent publications using DecsionTools Suite software include “Risikosimulation als Teil des Projektcontrollings” (“Risk simulation as part of project monitoring”), and “Zahlungsorientierte Großprojektplanung mittels Simulation” (“Payment-oriented large-scale project planning using simulation”), both in 2010.

» Learn more about Dr. Werners

@RISK Our students like to use @RISK because they
      can perform simulations in MS Excel in a very
      easy way. Students become familiar with
      situations with uncertain outcomes and they
      learn how to handle them in a highly
      professional way. They use detailed statistical
      reports to evaluate and compare alternatives,
      and determine the best one.  Trial Versions

                             Dr. Brigitte Werners, Ruhr-University Bochum,
                             Department of Management and Economics

Stay in touch with fellow
experts on LinkedIn

Palisade invites our users to connect via our Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis group on LinkedIn. We intend this group to serve as a forum to connect @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software users with Palisade risk and decision analysis experts.

We hope you find this to be another useful resource for networking, sharing ideas about models, and getting answers to your questions.

» Join the Palisade LinkedIn group

Recent School Adoptions

Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2010, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:

US and Canada:

  Arizona State University
Clemson University
Georgia Inst. of Technology
Kansas State University
McNeese State University
Northwestern University
Royal Military College
Stevens Institute of Technology
SUNY Oswego
Texas A&M University
University of Hawaii at West Oahu
University of Saskatchewan
Vanderbilt University
Worcester Polytechnic Institute


  Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business - PR China
Ecole des Mines d'Albi-Carmaux - France
Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen - Germany
Glasgow Caledonian University - United Kingdom
University of Canterbury - New Zealand
Hogskolen i Sor-Trondelag - Norway
Hong Kong University of Science & Technology - Hong Kong
IAE - Argentina
Institute of Technology Sligo - Ireland
International Institute for Learning Mexico - Mexico
ITESM - Mexico
Melbourne Business School - Australia
Orkestra - Instituto Vasco de Competitividad - Spain
Özyegin Üniversitesi - Turkey
PT. Mitra Integrasi Komputindo (MIK) - Indonesia
Technische Universiteit Eindhoven - Netherlands
Univ. Pedagogica y Tec de Colo - Columbia
Universidad EAFIT - Colombia
University of Groningen - Netherlands
University of Oulu - Finland
University of Reading - United Kingdom
University of Warwick - United Kingdom

Licensing Options

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:


Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation.
» Learn more

Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more

Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more

Get DecisionTools Suite 5.7 for your course by contacting:

AddressPalisade Academic Sales    
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000

@RISK @RISK showed my students how
      software can make probability theory
      relatively easy. Trial Versions

                       Greg LaFlame, Kent State University

Teaching Tips & Examples

The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way. Each month we feature an example or tip illustrating how students can gain "real world" benefits by implementing quantitative analysis.

Using Evolver to Maximize the Chance
of Beating the S and P Index
Excerpted from Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade

You are given monthly returns on Wal-Mart, Disney, and 3M. If you are only allowed to invest in Wal‐Mart, Disney, and 3M, what investment strategy maximizes your chances of beating the S and P index?

Our work is in the file geneticport.xls.

Palisade Download the example spreadsheet and
    step-by-step instructions

Textbook of the Month

The DecisionTools Suite is included in dozens of major textbooks, and is a key component of more titles every year. Authors use the DecisionTools Suite to illustrate key analytical concepts and build examples demonstrating the value of quantitative techniques in business, OR, and engineering.

Primer on Risk Analysis:
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
by Charles Yoe

“This book lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions “what is risk analysis?” and "how do I do this?” The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. A companion volume, Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles of risk analysis—the “how to.” Both books are accompanied by a free student version of the DecisionTools Suite.

» Learn more from the publisher
» See a list of books bundled with Palisade software

Featured White Paper

Professors, PhD candidates, practitioners and others often use the DecisionTools Suite as part of a complex analysis to address important problems. These analyses are published in white papers. Each month we will feature a different academic white paper addressing a wide range of issues.

Ceramic coatings for jet
engine turbine blades
by David Parsons and Julia Chatterton,
Carbon Brainpoint Case Study, July 2011

Ceramic thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are applied to jet turbine blades to protect them from the high temperature gases leaving the combustion chamber and to increase the efficiency of the engine. @RISK was used to estimate emissions reductions due to improved coatings.

Palisade  Read the full paper here

Academic Live Webcast

Professors using Palisade software share examples and teaching tips they've used in class in Palisade's Academic Webcast series. Register online at no charge.

A Stochastic Simulation Model for Dairy
Business Investment Decisions

To be presented by Dr. Jeffrey Bewley, University of Kentucky
May 24, 2012, 11:00am ET

A dynamic, stochastic, mechanistic simulation model of a dairy enterprise was developed to evaluate the cost and benefit streams coinciding with investments in Precision Dairy Farming technologies. The model was constructed to embody the biological and economical complexities of a dairy farm system within a partial budgeting framework. A primary objective was to establish a flexible, user-friendly, farm-specific, decision-making tool for dairy producers or their advisers and technology manufacturers. The basic deterministic model was created in Microsoft Excel. @RISK was employed to account for the stochastic nature of key variables within a Monte Carlo simulation.

» Read more details about the webcast and register here
» See complete Webcast schedule

The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?

The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
Textbooks using Palisade software

In This Issue

» Decision Making and
   Risk Management at
   Ruhr-University Bochum

» Stay in touch with fellow
   experts on LinkedIn

» Recent School Adoptions

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &

   Using Evolver to Maximize
   the Chance of Beating
   the S and P Index

» Textbook of the Month
   Primer on Risk Analysis:
   Decision Making
   Under Uncertainty

» Featured White Paper
   Ceramic coatings for jet
   engine turbine blades

» Academic Live Webcast
   A Stochastic Simulation
   Model for Dairy Business
   Investment Decisions

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

Keep in Touch

PalisadeClick to chat live with
a sales representative

Risk Conferences

2012 Palisade Risk Conferences
Industry experts present real-world case studies, Palisade consultants deliver workshops and training, plus sneak previews of new software. Don't miss the opportunity to sign up for an Expert Session, in which you can have an expert review your model and answer questions, one-on-one, at no charge!
» London: 18-19 April
» Sydney: 29-30 May
» Las Vegas: 7-8 Nov


» Training Seminars
Kuala Lumpur: 3-4 April
Sydney: 17-18 April
Canberra: 1-2 May
Beijing 16-17 May
Hong Kong: 22-23 May
Perth: 13-14 June
Melbourne: 19-20 June

Brasilia: 28-30 de março
Rio de Janeiro: 16-18 de abril
Curtiba:9-11 de maio
São Paulo: 23-25 de maio
Recife: 13-15 de junho
Belo Horizonte:
   27-29 de junho

EMEA & India
London: 20-22 March
Hamburg: 3-4 April
London: 22-23 May
London: 19-20 June

Latin America
Guayaquil, Ecuador:
  19-21 de marzo
Santiago, Chile: 18-20 de abril
Buenos Aires, Argentina:
  23-25 de abril
Villahermos, México:
  9-11 de mayo

North America
Washington, DC: 27-29 March
Phoenix: 10-11 April
Chicago: 24-26 April
Jersey City: 8-9 May
Houston: 15-17
Minneapolis: 22-23 May
Seattle: 12-14 June
Toronto: 27-28 June

» Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite

4-5 June, 1pm-5pm ET

19-20 March, 11am-3pm ET
21-22 June, 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK

4-5 April, 11am-3pm ET

19-20 April, 11am-3pm ET

Using Decision Trees
with PrecisionTree to Add
Insight to Decisions

2 May, 9am-1pm ET

» Live Webcasts
These complimentary sessions are 30-60 minutes, held via web conference. See industry case studies, software demos, applications, and more.

A Stochastic Simulation Model
for Dairy Business Investment

May 24, 11:00am ET
Dr. Jeffrey Bewley
University of Kentucky
» Register

Trial Versions

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
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