E-Focus: Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas - The Monte Carlo Resort, November 10-11 In This Issue
What’s New

» Palisade Risk Conference
   Las Vegas - One-on-One
   Consulting Offered

» New Experts’ Corner
   Video Series

» DecisionTools Fuels Business
   Case for Biofuels Plant

» Palisade Risk Conference
   Rio de Janeiro Draws
   Record Crowd

Case Study
» Petrobras Uses @RISK
   for E&P Analysis

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Evaluating Projects
   with Different Variances

Upcoming Webcasts

Blog Headlines

In This Issue
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2011 Palisade Risk Conferences

Industry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
» Amsterdam: 29-30 March
» México City: 1-2 June
» Rio de Janiero: 14-15 Sept
» Las Vegas: 10-11 Nov

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Perth: 16-17 November
Sydney: 7-9 December

» Brazil
São Paulo: 18-20 de outubro
Recife: 25-27 de outubro
Belo Horizonte:
   9-11 de novembro
São Paulo: 23-25 de novembro
Rio de Janeiro:
  30 de nov. a 2 de dezembro
Brasilia: 7-9 de dezembro

» EMEA & India
London: 26-28 October
Joannesburg, South Africa:
   26-28 October
Aberdeen: 16-18 November
London: 21-23 November
Milan: 28-29 November

» Latin America
Santiago, Chile:
   7-11 de noviembre
México, D.F.:
   21-25 de noviembre

» North America
Dallas: 25-27 October
Atlanta: 6-7 December

Live Web Training Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

2-3 Nov., 11am-3pm ET

17-18 Nov., 11am-3pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

1-2 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

15-16 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
7 November, 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
» Español
» Português
» Deutsch
» Français
» 日本語版
» 中文版

The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite

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Over 40 Sessions, One-on-One Consulting
Offered at Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas

The Monte Carlo Resort and Casino, November 10-11

Now is the time to register for the 2011 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas. Now in its sixth year and attracting more people every time, the conference has become the most important event of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. Over the course of two days, industry experts will present over 40 real-world case studies and training sessions about innovative and interesting approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. In addition, you’ll have the opportunity to meet one-on-one with technical consultants to address your personal modeling and risk problems. Plus: see sneak previews of the upcoming 6.0 version of software from Palisade!

Christina Ray, Senior Managing Director for Market Intelligence at Omnis, Inc., and author of Extreme Risk Management: Revolutionary Approaches to Evaluating and Measuring Risk, will deliver the plenary session on “Decision Making and Enterprise Risk Management: The Plausible vs. the Probable.”

Lunches, breaks, and networking receptions at the fabulous Monte Carlo Resort and Casino are all included with your registration.

   PalisadeThings to look forward to at the conference 

 » View the conference program 
 » Register for the conference

@RISK The conference provided me with food for
      thought in order to provide better solutions
      to prospects and clients.Trial Versions

                                     - J. Rouaud, Marsh

New Experts’ Corner Video Series
Palisade is pleased to announce a new series of how-to video tutorials on getting the most from @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software. The videos cover a range of topics such as: getting started, advanced analyses, and industry-specific example applications. Whether you want a quick lesson on how to run your first simulation, or you’d like to learn how to solve common problems in your industry, our experts can help. We will be continually adding new videos to our library on a diverse range of topics.

 » Check out the Experts’ Corner

DecisionTools Fuels Business
Case for Biofuels Plant
The DecisionTools Suite enables Sark7, an international consultancy specializing in sustainable energy projects, to develop profitable business cases for new projects, thereby acting as a due-diligence tool for prospective sustainability entrepreneurs, investors, project managers, providers and organizations. Most recently, the firm used the tools in the Suite to analyze a biofuel plant. @RISK was used to model the project’s Net Present Value (NPV), PrecisionTree informed strategic scenario decision-making, and Evolver suggested plant optimization strategies. According to Sark7 founder Scott Mongeau, “Palisade’s risk analysis software is simply ‘the best thing since sliced bread’, especially in our increasingly complex, uncertain global world. Because it runs in Excel, it is accessible to everyone and doesn’t become the exclusive domain of technical experts. Despite being highly sophisticated technology, it actually streamlines human conversations because it allows for integrated, like-to-like analysis of risks from the standpoint of highly specialized but distributed experts.”

 » Read the full case study

Palisade Risk Conference Rio de Janeiro
Draws Record Crowd

Attracting over 150 delegates, Palisade’s second Risk Conference in Rio de Janeiro attracted more participants than ever. The event was held at the Sheraton Hotel and Towers, Leblon on the 14th and 15th of September. Professionals attended from industries such as oil and gas, power generation, mining, packaging, engineering, and banking. There were over 20 presentations and training sessions divided into two tracks.

The conference was opened by Palisade president Sam McLafferty and vice president Randy Heffernan. Sam presented an overview of Palisade and previewed what is coming next in future versions, and Randy discussed the importance and need for probabilistic analysis in today’s business climate. Over the course of the two days this was followed by sessions on risk analysis in petroleum exploration, capital project expansion, mineral drilling, cost estimation, and more. Delegates also found time to relax and exchange ideas at numerous networking sessions and receptions.

@RISK I enjoyed the event very much. It was very
      productive and enlightening, enabled the
      exchange of ideas and experience among
      participants, and provided knowledge on
      how the analysis tools work in practice.Trial Versions

                                     - Juarez Guaraci Filardo, Petrobras

 » Read more about the Palisade Risk Conference Rio (in Portuguese)

Case Study
Petrobras Uses @RISK for E&P Analysis
As Presented By Rafael Hartke of Petrobras at the 2010 Palisade Risk Conference, Las Vegas

Meet Rafael at the 2012 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas, November 10-11

Recently Brazil-based Petrobras, one of the world’s largest oil companies, implemented a corporate-wide protocol for evaluating the economic risks associated with potential investments. Key risks of interest to the company include those associated with production of oil and natural gas, demand for derivatives, prices of various commodities, and more.

To deal with these risks, Petrobras has integrated @RISK with its in-house analysis software. Using @RISK enables the company to analyze more complex projects, such as those undertaken with outside partners and those involving multiple concessions (specific drilling areas). In addition, @RISK helps reduce the calculation time for projections that used to take thousands of hours.

 » Read more about how Petrobras uses @RISK
 » Download the presentation

Product Spotlight
Evaluating Projects with Different Variances
From Chapter 7 of the book @RISK Bank Credit Analysis by Roy Nersesian, published by Palisade.

In the “good old” days, projects were evaluated in terms of their most likely returns. Aside from considerations in business strategy, if project A had a return of 8% and project B a return of 9%, then the latter would be preferred.

@RISK permits project evaluation in terms of both risk and reward. Suppose that two projects provide the same return, but have different variances. The probability distribution of outcomes for projects A and B can be described by normal distributions with a mean of 10%. However, project A has a standard deviation of 1% while project B has a standard deviation of 2%. Project B would be considered the riskier project because it has a higher probability of yielding a lower level of return than project A even though both projects have the same average return.

 » Download the full chapter and example file

Introduction to Risk Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

  Presented by
Dave Bristol, Palisade
  October 26, 2011, 10:00am (ET),
» Register Now

  Presented by Andrew Sich, Palisade
  October 27, 2011, 1:00pm (ET),
» Register Now

  Presented by Jaime Weisberg, Palisade
  November 3, 2011, 1:00pm (ET),
» Register Now

  Presented by Steve Hunt, Palisade
  November 8, 2011, 1:00pm (ET),
» Register Now

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

  Presented by Chris Marlow, Palisade
  October 25, 2011, 10:00am (UK),
» Register Now

  Presented by Doug Oldfield, Palisade
  November 29, 2011, 10:00am (UK),
» Register Now

Modeling Oil & Gas Risk Problems using
the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Rishi Prabhakar, Palisade
October 19, 2011, 2:00pm (Australian EST)
» Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con
@RISK y DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade
October 26, 2011, 10:00am (UK)
, » Register Now

Petroleum Resource Evaluation Using @RISK
Presented by Dr. Ronald Brimhall
November 10, 2011, 11:00am (ET)
, » Register Now

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
avec @RISK et DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade
November 30, 2011, 10:00am (UK),
» Register Now

Use of @RISK for Quantifying Uncertainty in
Innovation Project Management

Presented by Dr. Jose A. Briones, SpyroTek Performance Solutions
December 1, 2011, 11:00am (UK),
» Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule

Palisade Blog Headlines
Mining engineering students simulate stochastic processes
Thursday, October 6, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
For their capstone design projects, undergraduate mining engineering students at Missouri University of Science and Technology develop “real-world” solutions. So, Dr. Samuel Frimpong provides his students with real-world tools, including Palisade’s @RISK software.
» Read more

@RISK used to evaluate capital budgeting, investments, random
walks, derivatives pricing and real options at Cornell's
Dyson School of Managementt

Monday, October 3, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
Calum Turvey, W.I. Myers Professor of Agricultural Finance, uses @RISK in his Risk Simulation and Optimization course. @RISK is used to evaluate problems of finance, including capital budgeting, investments, random walks, derivatives pricing and real options.
» Read more

INCAE students analyze financial institutions and capital
markets with @RISK

Thursday, September 22, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
What do banks, bond-rating agencies and homeowners in places like Las Vegas have in common? They all grossly misjudged risk and, as a result, made bad decisions during the recent housing bubble.
» Read more

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The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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