E-Focus: UNILEVER Decision Making Under Uncertainty In This Issue
What’s New

» Decision Making Under
   Uncertainty at Unilever

» Webcasts: Value Creation
   in Management Science,
   and Policy Making Using
   Analytical Tools

» The Economics of Supply
   Chain Risk Management
   using @RISK

» Put More Science into
   Cost Risk Analysis

Case Studies
   Define Budget for Canadian
   Department of National
   Defence Project

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Robust Risk Analysis
   Made Easy with VBA

Palisade Analytics
in the Press

» Budgeting Projections
» Corporate Litigation
» National Security

In This Issue
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Regional Seminars
» North America
Phoenix: 18-19 May
Calgary, AB: 1-3 June
Philadelphia: 29-30 June
Memphis: 7-8 July
St. Paul: 13-15 July
Ithaca, NY: 27-28 July
Seattle: 3-5 August
Toronto: 17-18 August
Denver: 1-3 Sept
Charlotte, NC: 14-15 Sept
Montreal: 28-29 Sept
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Chicago: 26-28 Oct
Dallas: 3-4 Nov
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» Latin America
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Santiago, Chile: 2-4 de junio

» Brasil
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Salvador: 31 de maio
   a 2 de junio
Rio de Janeiro: 28-30 de junho
Rio de Janeiro: 12-13 de julho

Live Web Training
» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

12-13 July, 11am-3pm ET
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11-12 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

24-25 May, 1pm-5pm ET
19-20 July, 11am-3pm ET
20-21 Sept, 1-5pm ET
22-23 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

14-15 June, 11am-3pm ET
10-11 August, 11am-3pm ET
5-6 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
7-8 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

21-22 June, 11am-3pm ET
23-24 August, 11am-3pm ET
19-20 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
20-21 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

» Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
26 July, 11am-3pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite


What's New
Decision Making Under Uncertainty at Unilever

Global consumer products leader Unilever incorporates @RISK into a structured, methodical approach to decision making with probabilistic analysis at the heart of its reasoning. Applying the principles and best practices of decision analysis allows the Decision Analysis Group at Unilever to analyze decisions that are complex in nature and have a high degree of uncertainty. It is not just about being good at probabilistic analysis; it is also about making sure the company is addressing the right problem and gaining commitment to action.

In his presentation at the 2009 Palisade Risk Conference, Sven Roden discussed what Decision Making Under Uncertainty means to Unilever and how Decision Analysis techniques are at the forefront of making a cultural change to the way Unilever approaches and analyses strategic decisions. Sven also discussed how Unilever’s relationship with Palisade helped them in their journey.

» Read the presentation

Upcoming Webcasts
"Targeted Analyses and Compelling Communication: A Formula for Successful Value Creation in Management Science"
Presented by Michael A. Kubica, Senior Scientist,
Econometric Modeling, Applied Quantitative Sciences
May 6, 2010, 11:00am ET

The value of quantitative science projects too often remains unrealized for would-be consumers. Despite flawless analyses, sophisticated reports and dazzling presentations, the message goes unheeded by those who could most benefit: If only they understood how to operationalize the results. The clarity with which quantitative scientists view the practical application of results is often paralleled only by their inability to generate that same clarity in their customers. The result is that good management science is at best ignored and worst, misunderstood (and misapplied). This live webcast describes steps we as quantitative scientists can take to foster understanding, generate novel insights and stimulate actionable results with our clients, as well as demonstrates some of the tools we use - including @RISK.
» Register now (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)

"Policy Making Using Analytical Tools: A Case Study of InnovaAg – Educated Decision Making Incorporating @RISK"
Presented by John McKenzie, President and Founder, Innovastat
May 26, 2010, 11:00am ET

Sound decision analysis is critical for the success of small farmers. We are all awash in huge amounts of information and the problems and decisions facing farmers are complex. Surprisingly, cutting-edge methods such as Monte Carlo simulation and optimization under uncertainty - employed routinely throughout the corporate world - are not being applied to solve small farmer problems. Without the benefit of these tools to assess and manage risk, small farmers face conditions that add significantly to their risk and reduce their likelihood of success, sustainability and profitability. In this live webcast we will see how InnovaAg develops farm plans that include decisions that minimize risk taking into account weather conditions, commodity price fluctuations, input price changes, cultural characteristics, etc.
» Register now (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)

Palisade Blog Headlines
The Economics of Supply Chain Risk Management using @RISK
Monday, May 3, 2010
At the 2010 Palisade Risk Conference in London, David Inbar of Minet Technologies presented a talk on supply chain risk management. Supply chain risk management is an emerging field which has been growing significantly in importance because of modern management concepts such as lean, globalization and outsourcing. Inbar's talk gave an overview of the concepts and process of supply chain risk management, and demonstrated how using Monte Carlo simulation techniques with @RISK adds value to the decision making processes and enables managers to purchase the most cost effective mitigations.
» Read more

Put More Science into Cost Risk Analysis
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
John Zhao of Statoil describes how the international oil company takes risk management seriously, and has applied Monte Carlo simulation techniques in core and support businesses using @RISK. Such applications not only include the solo use of individual applications, but integrated combinations from drilling, reserve estimation, and well completion to cost and schedule controls at project execution. Besides the widespread uses of the software, Zhao discussed a specific application of @RISK to convincingly simulate required capital project contingency in detail.
» Read more

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Case Study
ENGCOMP Uses @RISK to Define Budget for
Canadian Department of National Defence’s
Fleet Maintenance Facility Project

ENGCOMP is a Saskatchewan-based structural, mechanical and cost engineering consulting firm. With structural engineering as its core business, ENGCOMP also specializes in risk analysis, cost estimation, planning and computer task automation.

ENGCOMP was contracted to assist the Canadian Department of National Defence (DND) to define the budget for the fourth phase of construction of its ongoing Fleet Maintenance Facility Cape Breton (FMF CB) project located at the Canadian Forces Base Esquimalt, Victoria, BC. Using Palisade’s risk analysis software, @RISK, ENGCOMP conducted Monte Carlo simulations to quantify the uncertainty in defining the budget and schedule for this project.

» Read the full case study

Product Spotlight
Robust Risk Analysis Made Easy with VBA

Many organizations see the value in quantitative, probabilistic analysis, but lack the internal resources to properly develop accurate, reliable models that may be replicated throughout the group. This can be addressed by using a customized approach with @RISK’s Excel Developer Kit (XDK). The XDK takes full advantage of Excel’s built-in VBA language to allow full control of @RISK and your model, narrowing choices and simplifying a problem so that many others can understand and analyze it.

» Click here for a two-part tip with more details on how custom automation
   using @RISK can add value. Click “Next Post” at the bottom for Part 2.

» Click here for examples of custom @RISK solutions from
   Palisade’s Custom Development group.

Palisade Software Techniques in the News
Business Finance
Budgeting Projections
Technique: Monte Carlo Simulation   » see @RISK
Source: The Business Insider, May 3, 2010

In his series on budgeting, MBA blogger Fred Wilson, lays out the basics of applying Monte Carlo simulation to financial projections.

Corporate Litigation
In-house and Outside Counsel Partner to Reduce Litigation Risk
Technique: Decision Trees   » see PrecisionTree
Source: The Metropolitan Corporate Counsel, May 3, 2010

A new book on corporate litigation risk addresses decision trees as one of the emerging techniques to analyze and defend against the risks and costs of corporate litigation.

National Security
Real-World Solutions at Homeland Security Summit
Technique: Decision analysis   » see DecisionTools
Source: USC News, April 30, 2010

At a recent summit on Homeland Security, experts reviewed decision analysis techniques and resources that will help reduce the risks and costs of terrorism.


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