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The first 2010 Palisade Risk Conference will take place in the Institute of Directors in London’s Pall Mall, and will cover a wide variety of innovative approaches to risk and decision analysis.
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London Risk Conference Program Announced
Institute of Directors, London, 14-15 April 2010
The 2010 Palisade Risk Conference is being held in London on 14-15 April and will cover a wide variety of innovative approaches to risk and decision analysis. This year's keynote presentation, "Number Cruncher or Decision Professional?", will be delivered by Andrea Dickens and Dr. Sven Roden from the Unilever Finance Academy, and the expanded schedule also includes case studies from CapGemini, Halcrow, Pricewaterhouse Coopers and Statoil. Topics include:
Palisade president Sam McLafferty will be unveiling the new, multi-language versions the DecisionTools Suite and @RISK 5.5.1, and our trainers and developers will be on hand to answer questions and provide free software training. The event also provides an excellent opportunity to network with other professionals and find out how they’re using Palisade solutions to make better decisions.
Software training will also be included, covering new approaches to the problems you face every day. You will see how new versions of @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, TopRank, NeuralTools, StatTools, and other Palisade software tools work together to give you the most complete picture possible in your situation. Top-level consultants, industry practitioners, and Palisade experts will present to an audience of professionals from across the spectrum of business and research.
Palisade Blog Headlines
Opportunity Costs of Risk Analysis
Based in Silicon Valley, California, Tioga Energy is a leading supplier of renewable energy services to commercial, government, and non-profit institutions. The state of California alone consumes more electricity than all but twelve of the largest countries in the world. Tioga maintains and operates solar systems on behalf of its customers. In order to illustrate the benefits of solar, Tioga needs to estimate future electricity prices and make comparisons by showing the savings from a new solar system. To forecast possible price increases, Tioga Energy inputs historical electricity rate data into a model developed using Palisade's risk analysis software, @RISK.
You can use the RiskTheo function in @RISK to determine the parameters of a discrete distribution based on a continuous one. In this example, the RiskTheo functions of @RISK work out the P10, P50, and P90 percentiles of a continuous distribution (in this case the LogNormal), and the Mean and Standard Deviation of a RiskDiscrete distribution which has these X-values and some assumed probabilities (or weights). It then uses Excel's Solver to work out the probabilities required so that the discrete distribution based on these percentiles and probabilities would have the same mean and standard deviation as the continuous distribution.
To help eliminate language difficulties in communicating about payment of debt, a new automated contact system based on decision trees uses an animated character, called an Avatar, to converse with customers in their own language.
Research from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratories demonstrates how neural networks can be used to simulate activity in areas of the human brain where epileptic seizures arise.
A tech editor passes along Microsoft’s announcement of progress using neural networks technology in the development of new handwriting recognition software.
A report on one scientist’s use of Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques to estimate the extent of extraterrestrial life.
Columnist advises IT managers to look to such techniques as Monte Carlo simulation for sorting out cost-cutting strategies.
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