London April Risk Conference Schedule In This Issue
What’s New

» London Risk Conference
   Program Announced

» Healthcare Forum
   Schedule Available

» Webcast: Use of @RISK
   for Probabilistic Decision

» New business planning —
   Measuring feasibility

» Opportunity Costs of
   Risk Analysis

Case Studies
» Tioga Energy uses @RISK
   to Predict Financial Savings
   from Solar Energy

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Use of RiskTheo to
   Represent Distributions
   as Discrete Ones

Palisade Analytics
in the Press

» Accounts Receivable
» Neurobiology
» Software Innovation
» Space Science
» Web Metrics

In This Issue
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2010 Palisade Risk Conference LondonThe first 2010 Palisade Risk Conference will take place in the Institute of Directors in London’s Pall Mall, and will cover a wide variety of innovative approaches to risk and decision analysis.
LONDON 14-15 April 2010
» View the schedule
» Register now

2010 Health Risk Analysis Forum
One-day forum covering risk and decision analysis from all angles specific to the healthcare sector.
SAN DIEGO 31 March 2010
» View the schedule
» Register Now

Regional Seminars
» Australia
Melbourne: 10-11 March
Sydney: 7-9 April
Brisbane: 5-6 May
Sydney: 26-28 May
Melbourne: 7-8 July

» Europe
London: 14-15 April
  Risk Conference at IoD
London: 20-22 April
Brussels: 5-7 May

» North America
Houston (Oil & Gas):
   1-2 March
Dayton, OH: 3-4 March
Jersey City, NJ: 10-11 March
Chicago: 16-17 March
San Diego: Health Risk  Analysis Forum, 31 Mar
Washington DC: 6-8 April
Bermuda: 4-5 May
Phoenix: 18-19 May
Calgary, AB: 2-4 June
Philadelphia: 15-16 June
Memphis: 7-8 July
St. Paul: 13-15 July
Ithaca, NY: 27-28 July
Seattle: 3-5 August
Toronto: 17-18 August
Charlotte, NC: 14-15 Sept
Montreal: 28-29 Sept
Boston: 12-13 Oct
Chicago: 26-28 Oct
Dallas: 3-4 Nov
Richmond: 16-17 Nov
Redondo Beach, CA: 1-2 Dec
Atlanta: 13-14 Dec

» Latin America
Medellín: 8-10 de marzo
Lima: 15-19 de marzo
Santiago, Chile: 21-23 de abril
Guayaquil, Ecuador:
   21-23 de abril
Buenos Aires: 26-28 de abril
Santo Domingo, República
   Dominicana: 9-11 de junio

» Brasil
Rio de Janeiro: 3-5 de março
São Paulo: 17-19 de março
Vitoria: 18-20 de abril
Belo Horizonte: 26-28 de abril
Recife: 3-5 de maio
Recife: 10-11 de maio
Salvador: 31 de maio
   a 2 de junio
Salvador: 7-8 de junho
Rio de Janeiro: 28-30 de junho
Rio de Janeiro: 12-13 de julho

Live Web Training
» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

1-2 Mar, 1pm-5pm ET
10-11 May, 9am-1pm ET
28-29 June, 11am-3pm ET
9-10 Sept, 1-5pm ET
11-12 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

15-16 Mar, 1pm-5pm ET
24-25 May, 9am-1pm ET
19-20 July, 11am-3pm ET
20-21 Sept, 1-5pm ET
22-23 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

12-13 Apr, 11am-3pm ET
7-8 June, 1-5pm ET
10-11 August, 11am-3pm ET
5-6 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
7-8 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

26-27 Apr, 11am-3pm ET
21-22 June, 1-5pm ET
23-24 August, 11am-3pm ET
19-20 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
20-21 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

» Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
31 Mar, 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite

  What's New
London Risk Conference Program Announced
Institute of Directors, London, 14-15 April 2010

The 2010 Palisade Risk Conference is being held in London on 14-15 April and will cover a wide variety of innovative approaches to risk and decision analysis. This year's keynote presentation, "Number Cruncher or Decision Professional?", will be delivered by Andrea Dickens and Dr. Sven Roden from the Unilever Finance Academy, and the expanded schedule also includes case studies from CapGemini, Halcrow, Pricewaterhouse Coopers and Statoil. Topics include:
  • Plant project risk analysis
  • Cost risk analysis
  • Engineering optimization
  • Supply chain management
  • Utilities distribution
  • Six Sigma and quality
  • Modeling the Ryder Cup and much more

Palisade president Sam McLafferty will be unveiling the new, multi-language versions the DecisionTools Suite and @RISK 5.5.1, and our trainers and developers will be on hand to answer questions and provide free software training. The event also provides an excellent opportunity to network with other professionals and find out how they’re using Palisade solutions to make better decisions.

» View the full schedule
» Register today

Palisade Health Risk Analysis Forum

Healthcare Forum Schedule Available

Join us for this one-day forum covering risk and decision analysis from all angles specific to the healthcare sector. Case studies to be presented include topics such as:

  • Biotech portfolio analysis
  • Schedule risk assessment
  • Clinical trial investments
  • Health program opportunity analysis
  • And more

Software training will also be included, covering new approaches to the problems you face every day. You will see how new versions of @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, TopRank, NeuralTools, StatTools, and other Palisade software tools work together to give you the most complete picture possible in your situation. Top-level consultants, industry practitioners, and Palisade experts will present to an audience of professionals from across the spectrum of business and research.

» View the full schedule
Register today

Upcoming Webcast
"Use of @RISK for Probabilistic Decision Analysis of a Manufacturing Forecast in an Environment of High Uncertainty"
Presented by Dr. Jose A. Briones SpyroTek Performance Solutions
March 11, 2010, 11:00am ET

Profitability projections in a manufacturing environment are directly tied to how the sales forecast fits with the capability of the operation. When a company has a large portfolio of products with very different operational production rates, the manufacturing capacity of the plant will be significantly impacted by the product mix to be produced. This in turn will have a radical effect on the output of the plant and the allocation of the fixed cost of production. In this case we present an example where a company is trying to decide how best to balance the sales of certain families of products to maximize revenue, maintain a diverse product line, and properly price each individual product based on the impact to the manufacturing schedule and fixed cost allocation.
» Register now (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)

Palisade Blog Headlines
New business planning – measuring feasibility
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
The latest Business in Britain survey from Lloyds TSB Commercial shows that the UK's commercial enterprises are regaining confidence. Companies planning major new business drives for 2010 would do well to follow the example of Thales UK, which uses @RISK to enable it to assess commercial feasibility of potential new business wins.
» Read more

Opportunity Costs of Risk Analysis
Friday, February 12, 2010
Merck's Art Misyan, currently Director, Financial Evaluation and Analysis at the company and a longtime practitioner of risk analysis and decision evaluation, has offered some cogent comment in response to my blog about the calculating the opportunity costs of risk analysis in making decisions under uncertainty...
» Read more

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Case Study
Tioga Energy uses @RISK to
Predict Financial Savings from Solar Energy

Based in Silicon Valley, California, Tioga Energy is a leading supplier of renewable energy services to commercial, government, and non-profit institutions. The state of California alone consumes more electricity than all but twelve of the largest countries in the world. Tioga maintains and operates solar systems on behalf of its customers. In order to illustrate the benefits of solar, Tioga needs to estimate future electricity prices and make comparisons by showing the savings from a new solar system. To forecast possible price increases, Tioga Energy inputs historical electricity rate data into a model developed using Palisade's risk analysis software, @RISK.

» Read the full case study

Product Spotlight
Use of RiskTheo to Represent Distributions
as Discrete Ones

You can use the RiskTheo function in @RISK to determine the parameters of a discrete distribution based on a continuous one. In this example, the RiskTheo functions of @RISK work out the P10, P50, and P90 percentiles of a continuous distribution (in this case the LogNormal), and the Mean and Standard Deviation of a RiskDiscrete distribution which has these X-values and some assumed probabilities (or weights). It then uses Excel's Solver to work out the probabilities required so that the discrete distribution based on these percentiles and probabilities would have the same mean and standard deviation as the continuous distribution.

download the modelDownload the example: CtsToDiscrete.xls

Palisade Software Techniques in the News
Accounts Receivable
Collection Agencies Employ Virtual Spanish-Speaking Agents
Technique: Decision trees   » see PrecisionTree
Source: PR Web, January 28, 2010

To help eliminate language difficulties in communicating about payment of debt, a new automated contact system based on decision trees uses an animated character, called an Avatar, to converse with customers in their own language.

Neural Modeling Helps Expose Epilepsy Triggers
Technique: Monte Carlo Simulation   » see @RISK
Technique: Neural Networks   » see NeuralTools
Source: PressReleasePoint, February 13, 2010

Research from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratories demonstrates how neural networks can be used to simulate activity in areas of the human brain where epileptic seizures arise.

Software Innovation
Handwriting Recognition Software Approaches
Technique: Neural Networks   » see NeuralTools
Source: TechRadar UK, February 10, 2010

A tech editor passes along Microsoft’s announcement of progress using neural networks technology in the development of new handwriting recognition software.

Space Science
A Census of Alien Life
Technique: Monte Carlo Simulation   » see @RISK
Source: Scientific American, February 10, 2010

A report on one scientist’s use of Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques to estimate the extent of extraterrestrial life.

Web Metrics
Think Ahead While Cutting Back
Technique: Monte Carlo Simulation   » see @RISK
Source: MediaPost Publications, February 10, 2010

Columnist advises IT managers to look to such techniques as Monte Carlo simulation for sorting out cost-cutting strategies.


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