In This Issue
What’s New

» @RISK 5.5 to Debut at

» Subscribe to Risk &
   Decision Analysis Blogs

» Upcoming Webcasts:
  "What We Aren’t Taught in
   Business School..." and
  "Lean Six Sigma Application
   of @RISK..."

» VAIR Financial Modeling
   Courses Featuring @RISK

Case Study
» Hurricanes Gustav and Ike
   Test Newly-completed
   @RISK Model for Evacuation

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Value at Risk

@RISK Function
of the Month

» The Uniform Distribution

Palisade Analytics
in the Press

» Cancer Treatment
» Climate Change
» Corporate Liability
» Financial Planning
» GPS Technology
» Law Enforcement
» Supercomputing

Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Conferences
» Latinoamérica
20-21 octubre, Medellín
» North America
13-14 Nov, New York City

to chat live
with a sales

DecisionTools Suite 5.0 World Tour
Special live demonstrations of the all-new DecisionTools Suite 5.0. Learn how the Suite products combine to deliver more complete results than any single product can provide.

Orlando, 28 October

St. Louis, 29 October
Chicago, 30 October

Indianapolis, 20 November
Cincinnati, 21 November

» Sign up for a Tour date

Regional Seminars
» Brazil (em português)
Rio de Janeiro: 24-28 nov

» Europe
Oslo: 28-29 Oct
London: 5-6 Nov
London: 7 Nov
London: 5-7 Nov
London: 4-5 Dec
London: 27-29 Jan
London: 24-26 Feb
London: 31 Mar-2 Apr
London: 28-30 Apr
London: 15 May
London: 2-4 June

» Latinoamérica
   (en español)
Bogotá, Colombia:
   24-28 de noviembre

» North America
Orlando: 29-30 Oct
Los Angeles: 20-21 Nov
Dallas: 3-4 Dec
Atlanta: 16-17 Dec
San Diego: 20-21 Jan
Bermuda: 4-5 Feb
Houston: 10-12 Feb
Morgantown, WV: 24-25 Feb
Phoenix: 10-11 Mar
Ithaca: 17-18 Mar
Ottawa: 24-26 Mar
Washington DC: 7-8 Apr
Chicago: 21-23 Apr
Calgary: 5-6 May
New York: 29-21 May
Toronto: 2-3 June
San Francisco: 16-18 June
Ithaca: 24-25 June

Live Web Training
» Risk and Decision Assessment Training using @RISK 5.0
Part I

27-28 October, 9am-1pm ET
3-4 Nov, 1-5pm ET
8-9 Dec, 1-5pm ET
12-13 Jan, 1-5pm ET
2-3 March, 1-5pm ET
13-14 April, 1-5pm ET
25-26 May, 1-5pm ET
8-9 June, 1-5pm ET

Part II
30-31 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
6-7 Nov, 1-5pm ET
11-12 Dec, 1-5pm ET
15-16 Jan, 1-5pm ET
5-6 March, 1-5pm ET
16-17 April, 1-5pm ET
28-29 May, 1-5pm ET

» Quantitative Project Risk Analysis using @RISK for Project: One Day Course (8023/AACEI One)
4 February, 1-5pm ET

Free Trial Versions
Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and decision analysis toolkit

The world's most widely used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite

@RISK 5.5 to Debut at Conference - e-focus

What's New
@RISK 5.5 to Debut at Conference
The next version of @RISK – version 5.5 – will be unveiled at the Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Conference on November 13-14, 2008 in New York City. @RISK 5.5 will offer new functions, new graphs, and new capabilities for archiving simulations.

The Conference, to be held at the Hyatt Regency on the Hudson Jersey City – just 10 minutes from Manhattan by PATH train – will also feature the all-new DecisionTools Suite 5.0 in a variety of case studies and hands-on software sessions.

Join decision-makers from Oliver Wyman, Lloyd’s Register, JP MorganChase, Kimberly-Clark, Merck, Indiana University, Harvard University, Fiserve/Checkfree, and many more. Particularly in the face of the current financial crisis, you don’t want to miss learning how to deal with risk in a variety of industries, including finance, energy, pharmaceuticals and manufacturing.

» View the conference program schedule
» Register now for only $595 and save $200

Subscribe to Risk & Decision Analysis Blogs
Palisade has recently launched a series of blogs providing current and valuable tips on risk modeling, decision analysis, Six Sigma techniques, and more. Updated constantly, you can subscribe to any or all blogs to get the latest tips delivered to your inbox.

» View the blogs

Subscribe to the RSS feed

Upcoming Webcasts

“What We Aren’t Taught in Business School About Managing Business”
Presented in conjunction with ISSSP by Sandi Claudell,
CEO, MindSpring Coaching - October 30, 12:00pm EST

You may have been taught about linear regression … looking at past quarters to forecast future quarters. You may not have been taught how Monte Carlo simulation can give you a better view of the future and your vulnerabilities. But what if you want to create a future that leaps off the page? What if you want a break from the past… and don’t want it to inform your future?

Sandi Claudell is a Master Black Belt (Motorola) and a Lean Master (Toyota Motors – Japan).

» Register now

"Lean Six Sigma Application of @RISK in Process Industries”
Presented by Ed Biernat, Consulting with Impact
November 6, 11:00am EST

The use of Monte Carlo simulation is growing in Lean Six Sigma applications. The ability to model actual data and then apply proposed changes to the model before modifying brick and mortar has significant appeal in capital-intensive industries. This webcast will explore a steel-making example and touch on similar projects.

» Register now

VAIR Financial Modeling Courses Featuring @RISK
Financial Statement Modeling and Analysis with Excel
and @RISK 5.0 - December 8-9 in Toronto

This class demonstrates how financial models should guide commercial discussions. Participants learn how to "negotiate off the financial model." This course is indispensable to the effective use of financial spreadsheets for any industry or sector.

» More information or Register

Public-Private Partnership Modeling & Legal Analysis
and @RISK 5.0 - December 10-12 in Toronto

This course focuses uniquely on “PPP” projects in Canada and their related modeling issues. Follow a step-by-step procedure of building a complex model for a concessionaire bid, and then review the model with a due-diligence analysis. Use @RISK's sophisticated model techniques to price the deal and negotiate off the model.

» More information or Register


Case Study
Case Study Hurricanes Gustav and Ike Test Newly-Created @RISK Model for Evacuation
Webcast presented by Henry Yennie
Program Manager
State of Louisiana
Department of Health & Hospitals

Henry Yennie of the Louisiana Dept of Health began using @RISK after Hurricane Katrina made landfall. Soon he became one of state's experts on decision making under uncertainty. Recently, he used @RISK to model the number of evacuees from New Orleans prior to hurricanes Gustav and Ike, with near-perfect results.

» View the webcast

Product Spotlight
Value at Risk (VAR)
With the most volatile stock market since the 1930s, anybody who owns a portfolio of investments knows there is a great deal of uncertainty about the future worth of the portfolio. The concept of value at risk (VAR) has been used to help describe a portfolio's uncertainty. Simply stated, the value at risk of a portfolio at a future point in time is usually considered to be the fifth percentile of the loss in the portfolio's value at that point in time. In other words, there is considered to be only one chance in 20 that the portfolio's loss will exceed the VAR. The following example shows how @RISK can be used to measure VAR, and how buying puts can greatly reduce the risk in a stock.

Download example model: Var.xls

Product Spotlight
The release of @RISK 5.0 has spurred tremendous response from our users. Every day customers ask us, “What’s new in @RISK 5.0?” To help answer this question, this series highlights key new features in @RISK 5.0. You can always see a complete list of new features, including short 30-second movies, here:

» What's New in @RISK 5.0

Correlate Time Series
With @RISK 5.0, you can correlate a time series that has a similar set of distributions in each time period.

See how to correlate a time series

Function of the Month
The Uniform Distribution

Every value across the range of the uniform distribution has an equal likelihood of occurrence. This distribution is sometimes referred to as a “no knowledge” distribution. Processes which might be considered to follow a uniform continuous distribution include the position of a particular air molecule in a room, or the point on a car tire where the next puncture will occur. In many uncertain situations, there is in fact a base or modal value, where the relative likelihood of other outcomes decreases as one moves away from this base value. For this reason there are only a few real life cases where this distribution genuinely captures all the knowledge that one has about a situation. The distribution is nevertheless extremely important, not least because it is often used by random number algorithms as a first step to generate samples from other distributions.

RiskUniform(minimum,maximum) specifies a uniform probability distribution with the entered minimum and maximum values.


RiskUniform(10,20) specifies a uniform distribution with a minimum value of 10 and a maximum value of 20.

RiskUniform(A1+90,B1) specifies a uniform distribution with a minimum value equaling the value in cell A1 plus 90 and a maximum value taken from cell B1.

Palisade Software Techniques in the News
Cancer Treatment
New Computer-Based Tools Will Improve Genetic Tests for Cancer
Technique: Decision analysis   » see DecisionTools Suite 5.0
Source: Carolina Newswire, September 23, 2008

A federally sponsored project will develop decision support tools to help patients and clinicians make better use of genetic tests for breast cancer.

New Study Examines Effectiveness of
Colorectal Cancer Screening Tests

Technique: Decision analysis   » see DecisionTools Suite 5.0
Source: Science Daily, October 7, 2008

Decision analysis led the US Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) to conclude that routine screenings for colorectal can be stopped for patients 75 and older.

Climate Change
Government of Gujarat Launches Climate Change Initiative
Technique: Decision analysis   » see DecisionTools Suite 5.0
Source: Business Wire India, September 19, 2008

A training program that is part of a new state initiative on climate change will enable policy makers to use decision tools to reduce risk of negative impacts.

Corporate Liability
Accounting Changes For Environmental Liability
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees   » see @RISK 5.0, PrecisionTree 5.0
Source: The Metropolitan Corporate Counsel

Monte Carlo simulation and decision tree technology can help corporations working to meet new regulations assign values to their environmental liabilities.

Financial Planning
Estimating Time to Financial...
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK 5.0
Source: Forex Hound, September 26, 2008

A stock trading expert explains how to adjust Monte Carlo simulation models to handle probabilities that don’t fit into normal distributions.

Go Online to Find Out Where You Stand
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK 5.0
Source: Chicago Sun-Times, October 3, 2008

A money-management columnist offers a round-up of online Monte Carlo simulation tools for retirement planning.

GPS Technology
New GPS Based on Rat Brains
Technique: Neural Networks   » see NeuralTools 5.0
Source: WA Today (Australia), October 3, 2008

Two University of Queensland scientists have built a neural network system that mimics a rat’s mental mapping processes and can improve GPS accuracy in tight quarters.

Law Enforcement
New Tool to Help Drug Enforcement Cops
Technique: Neural Networks   » see NeuralTools 5.0
Source: The Student Printz, September 26, 2008

A new tool from the University of Southern Mississippi will use neural network analysis to help police focus on prime areas for commercial marijuana growing.

Distributed Supercomputer Launches as the
World's Largest Computing Grid

Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK 5.0
Source: TG Daily, October 6, 2008

The supercomputer that processes the data from Large Hadron Collider at the Fermi National Accelerator is actually a worldwide network of computing centers capable of crunching massive amounts of data through such complex computations as Monte Carlo simulation.


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