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» Announcing StatTools and NeuralTools for Excel 2007
» NeuralTools Used to Speed Prediction Time for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment
» Free Live Webcast: How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business
» Risk and Decision Assessment Training using @RISK, Part II
» Project Risk Assessment using @RISK for Project
Society of Actuaries Annual Meeting and Exhibit
INFORMS Annual Meeting 2007
SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition - 2007
38th Annual Meeting of the Decision Sciences Institute - DSI 2007
Australian Risk Management Summit 2007
PMI New Zealand
International Conference on Operations and Quantitative Management
SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference
Announcing StatTools and
Take advantage of the new features in Excel 2007, including:
Expanded Worksheet – Excel 2007 offers 1 million rows and 16,000 columns in a single worksheet, allowing for vastly larger model sizes and data.
Improved Ribbon interface – StatTools and NeuralTools commands and features are now easier to find on the Excel Ribbon, which visually brings together the essentials.
Improved Charting - Graphs created by StatTools are fully customizable using all of Excel 2007's new graphing features. In addition, Excel 2007 charts are more easily shared with other Office applications such as Word and PowerPoint.
NeuralTools Used to Speed
Free Live Webcast:
Doug Hubbard will talk about the approach described in his book, How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles. This is based on Hubbard’s method Applied Information Economics (AIE) and includes how to formulate intangibles as measurable and techniques for improving Monte Carlo models including:
@RISK Combats Avian Flu
@RISK Stress Analysis
As an example, an insurance company might want to analyze its loss reserves. It would like to see what the effect would be on claims payout if it took out a reinsurance policy to cover an extraordinary number of claims. By stressing the distribution representing the number of claims to represent just the 90th percentile and below, you could see if the reserves on hand are enough to cover 90% of possible claims filed, while covering the highest 10% with an outside policy.
After completing a simulation, Stress Analysis provides you with a collection of reports and graphs you can use to analyze the effects. These include:
» DC.Ars: Team Heavy Metal Lasagna
The goal of the EON project is to calculate the growth/movement of solids at the atomic scale via Monte Carlo simulations. This simulation method has been employed to study island formation and growth, and the EON project is devoted to the growth of ice.
» Learning to evolve: With a little help
According to a new theory, the innate ability of today's birds to fly depends indirectly on the learning that their ancestors did, which leaves a genetically specified latent memory for flying. The theory has been tested on simple models of brains called artificial neural networks, which can be made to evolve using genetic algorithms.
» Monte Carlo Dose Calculation Extends CyberKnife(R) System's Capabilities in Precision Radiation Delivery
Accuray Incorporated, a global leader in the field of radiosurgery, announced an extension of the CyberKnife System's suite of products targeted toward the noninvasive treatment of lung tumors with Accuray's Monte Carlo dose calculation algorithm, which is pending FDA 510(k) clearance.
» Fitch Expects to Rate Metrofinanciera Trust #650 - Construction Bridge Loan Securitization
Fitch focuses credit analysis on several key quantitative and qualitative variables that could affect the performance of the underlying assets. Fitch estimates default risk on the portfolio using a a multi-period Monte Carlo simulation model, which simulates the default behavior of an individual asset for each year of the transaction's life. The Monte Carlo simulation allows for the modeling of the distribution of portfolio defaults and losses, taking into account the correlation between assets in a portfolio.
Costing £212.6m each year in the UK and growing at an annual rate of 16 per cent, cardholder-not-present (CNP) fraud is now the biggest category of plastic card deception. The internet retail industry in the UK is growing at an exceptional rate and credit card fraudsters are attacking the softer targets of the online sector. One category of fraud prevention systems is neural networks that can be built into payment processing systems in order to identify potentially deceitful transactions.
» Propipper.com Offers Forecasts
As part of the services, Pro Pipper will offer The New Wave Forex Market Watch service, including Inter-market Analysis utilizing neural networks to analyze correlation patterns between the target currency and its related commodity, bond and stock index markets.
» Top US, EU diabetes groups offer guidelines for Asians
About.com has launched a new symptom checker, an interactive tool developed in conjunction with Harvard Medical School. The tool covers 100+ common symptoms and guides users through a decision tree to determine possible conditions and appropriate actions. On average, 34 million monthly visitors use About.com to help guide their decisions about Health, Finance and many other topics.
Kiplinger’s rates the top online retirement planning services, finding the more advanced tools incorporate Monte Carlo simulation into their investment calculations.
» John Hancock Funds Adds New Retirement
John Hancock Funds recently launched a new retirement portfolio calculator on its award-winning web site. The calculator represents the probability that such a portfolio would last throughout retirement, given different retirement lengths and annual withdrawal rates. The chance of portfolio survival was projected using Monte Carlo simulation, which is useful for modeling outcomes with significant uncertainty and variety of inputs.
» Government Chemist designs system to
The creation of a simple system to assign the appropriate legislation for a range of dietary supplements is one of the key achievements described in the Government Chemist Review 2006, the latest account of analytical, advisory and strategic work for the UK Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills (DIUS). A decision tree was created to address the key factors in deciding whether a product falls under the provisions of the Food Safety Act 1990 or the Medicines Act 1968.
» New rules give food vendors leeway;
New Ontario provincial regulations allow the local medical officer of health to approve new foods for vendors to sell if they meet safety regulations. For that, the government officials have developed a decision tree, rather than a whole list, to help make good decisions about whether a food could be allowed or not.
CV parsing involves the deployment of neural network technology to identify candidate data directly from the resume with a high degree of precision. The artificial intelligence engine is able to read and understand resumes by making probabilistic determinations based on linguistic context and inference.
Neuroscientists studying language and cognition at Stanford University are using neural networks to teacher their computers to recognize and distinguish between vowel sounds, just the way an infant learns to recognize these sounds.
A team of EU-funded researchers has built a robot that can walk uphill and adjust its gait to traverse ice--or sand. Human changes of gait are triggered by the brain, while the robot’s high level of joint and torso coordination has been achieved by linking an infrared “eye” to a simple neural network.
» Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.
Two convertible notes issued in 2006 are hybrid instruments that come with embedded derivatives, including the right to convert the notes by the note holders, a premium put, a put option conditional upon certain events of default and a put option conditional upon a change of control. The valuation of the embedded derivatives was derived by using various valuation methods, which included Monte Carlo Simulation
» Genetic Evolution as a Foundation for
Evolution and other features of the natural world are being used more and more to solve supply chain problems that we haven’t been able to tackle before. In North America, genetic algorithms have been used by many companies since the 1990s to find better solutions to supply chain problems.
» Active vibration control (AVC) of a satellite
» Estimating Risk of Cancer Associated
» Predicting How Proteins Fold
Expert Answers to Technical Questions
Can I use Evolver and @RISK to determine the optimal allocations in a portfolio of funds with random growth?
Solving problems of this nature involve two modeling stages. The first stage uses @RISK to simulate the risk in each fund's growth. The second stage uses Evolver to determine the optimal portfolio allocations based on the simulation data generated by @RISK. Typically, the goal of the Evolver optimization would be to maximize the Average Total Return or a specific percentile of the Total Return that represents its VAR (Value at Risk). Additional constraints can be placed on the Total Return statistics like its standard deviation and percentiles.
Example: For demonstration purposes, the underlying @RISK model for generating the individual fund growth data has been simplified in this example. Typically, models that value fund growth subject to risk can be quite complex-often using autoregressive or other ad hoc time-series modeling techniques. These topics are beyond the scope of this article.
E-mail comments or suggestions to:email@example.com
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