DR Journal, May 2022
By Randy Heffernan, Chief Executive Officer at Palisade
Business continuity and emergency response managers know that recovering from a crisis requires proactive planning – regardless of whether you can see trouble approaching. Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic have taught us to expect the unexpected. So called “black swan” events, dubbed such because they are supposed to be rare, are not as unusual as the moniker suggests. Consider the dotcom crash in the early 2000s, 9/11 attacks, 2008 global financial market crash, and the Brexit vote in 2016. According to conventional wisdom, none of these were expected. Yet a more rigorous analysis of factors at the time would have…
Risk Management Magazine, May 2021
By Randy Heffernan, Chief Executive Officer at Palisade
Turning risk into opportunity relies on using analytics and data, identifying factors driving risk, and simulating many factors to shape strategy. … Predictive analytics help organizations navigate uncertainty, save lives, avoid surprises, make better decisions, and create market advantages that unveil new opportunities.
The RAM Review, May 15, 2021
Utilizing a software called @Risk, developed by Palisade, we evaluated the NASA bearing data to determine the best-fit distribution. It turns out that for the bearing data, the lognormal distribution is the best fit.
IT Pro Portal, April 2021
By Randy Heffernan, Chief Executive Officer at Palisade
While risk modeling to shape strategic positioning and responses has always been important, this past year has broadened the awareness of the need to evaluate risk. Technology to support risk management needs to be adaptable and accessible.
Government Computer News (GCN) and Defense Systems, September 2020
The basis of a solid risk assessment is understanding that probability exists in a range, not a specific number, says Henry Yennie, a program manager at the Louisiana Department of Health. … “I think it’s educating the leadership that has to evaluate risk,” said Yennie, who’s been using @RISK since Hurricane Katrina devastated the state in 2005.
Government Technology and Emergency Management, September 2020
Hospital bed availability changes daily, especially during COVID-19, as patients are admitted and discharged. @RISK gives staff a real-time look at data as it evolves, so they can develop models from different variables. … The probabilistic or stochastic models, such as @RISK, examine a wider range of possibilities and how likely each one is to occur. “I just quit paying attention to those other models,” Yennie said.
By Claudia Maron & Anja Burgermeister, Rethinking Finance, June 2019
Uncertainties, opportunities and risks in decision-making require a radical rethinking. We must move away from pinpointed results to thinking and making decisions in bandwidths. The Monte Carlo simulation is used as a prime example of successful bandwith thinking.
By Roy Nersesian, Natural Gas & Electricity, June 2018
Renewables pose real challenges for utility operators, particularly solar and wind power. Renewables such as biomass, geothermal, and hydro, however, are as controllable as fossil fuel plants. How do you account for the uncertainty inherent in the more unpredictable sources of renewable energy? Using DecisionTools Suite products @RISK, Evolver, and RISKOptimizer, the author examines unique ways to approach these challenges from a simple spreadsheet.
By Steve Cotterell, Project Manager Today, July 2016
Project Manager Today took an in-depth look at @RISK Professional, saying: "All projects involve risks, but it’s vital to understand what those risks are and how they might affect your budget and schedule. @RISK is a well-established software tool that’s been designed to help you do that." It's a thorough review of features, with helpful screen captures to illustrate.
By Sean Dudley, OnWindows, January 9, 2015
Palisade’s newest software product, BigPicture, is featured in this article, which outlines the benefits, applications, and target market of this mind mapping and data visualization tool. “With BigPicture, Palisade aims to provide users with new and visually exciting ways to model decisions and gain insights into their data, in the flexible environment of Excel,” the article quotes Randy Heffernan, Vice President at Palisade. “We expect BigPicture to be a valuable resource tool across many industries, within a variety of roles.”
By Nick Martindale, Economia Magazine, January 5, 2015
This article in Economia Magazine discusses why large IT projects tend to fail. Author Nick Martindale argues it’s often the business plan, not the technology, that needs a reboot. In the discussion, Laurits Søgaard Nielsen, CEO of Virtual Reporting and @RISK user and customer, talks about his work with the Danish government to deploy a business case modeler package to help it make objective decisions around whether or not to sign off new programs.
by Randy Heffernan, Risk Management Monitor, October 20, 2014
Climate change has already started to create extreme and unpredictable weather events around the globe. In this article, Randy Heffernan outlines the importance of considering these unknowns for businesses and organizations everywhere. Specifically describes a prime example in which the Australian government used Monte Carlo simulations to determine the best course of action when considering flood mitigation efforts for the Narrabeen Lagoon near Sydney, Australia.
by Dr. David T. Hullett, Cost Engineering, July/August 2014
A large part of the risk management process involves looking into the future, trying to understand what might happen and whether it matters to an important decision we need to make. An important quantitative technique which has been neglected in recent years - decision trees - is enjoying something of a revival. This article describes two approaches and compares their results using simple decision models in PrecisionTree.
by Fernando Hernández, Analytics India Magazine, June 23, 2014
Analytics India Magazine featured Palisade's World Cup 2014 simulation model in their article, "How to Win the World Cup Office Pool". Taking data from the rankings of over 200 national teams from FIFA spanning the past four years (2011-2014), Palisade created a model that uses @RISK to determine the probabilities of different teams winning at different stages, and PrecisionTree for mapping this information into a tree, or bracket, format. @RISK uses Monte Carlo simulation to compute thousands of different possible outcomes for the tournament automatically. The historic strengths and weaknesses of each team are accounted for in the statistical models used to represent each matchup.
by Randy Heffernan, Risk Management Monitor, June 11, 2014
Soccer fans around the world are gearing up for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Many will be putting money on the various matches—basing their bets on national pride or gut feelings. There is another option, however. If you have the data and the inclination, you could also utilize a Monte Carlo simulation to place your wager. Recently, Fernando Hernández, a trainer and consultant at risk and decision analysis software provider Palisade Corporation, did just that, utilizing this computerized decision-making method to determine a more mathematically accurate pick for the 20th FIFA World Cup champion.
by Craig Ferri, Analytics India Magazine, June 11, 2014
The world of financial markets and investments is rife with risk and reward. This is particularly true for hedge funds, sophisticated investment vehicles that are typically used only by experienced investors and firms. They are named for the fact that investors‘hedge,’ or attempt to protect their funds against volatile swings in the markets. But how are these portfolios managed? And are managers protecting and optimizing these funds as well as they should be? Seth Berlin, Principal Strategist at Performance Thinking & Technologies, a company that helps asset managers with investment operations, recently tackled these questions when working with a hedge fundclient. With the help of Palisade’s @RISK and RISKOptimizer software, Berlin was able to create a quantitative model that uses simulation to optimize a hedge fund’s portfolio.
by Matthew Futterman, Wall Street Journal, June 5, 2014
The Wall Street Journal featured Palisade's World Cup 2014 simulation model in their article, "The Journal's Prediction". Reporter Matthew Futterman consulted Palisade's Fernando Hernández on his "brilliantly logical prediction model" that picks who would win--with home-field advantage, and without.
by Randy Heffernan, Risk Management Monitor, April 15, 2014
The article shines light on the fact that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has launched an interactive web-based tool called iRISK, to combat the seeming endless risks in the "farm-to-table" pathway. Like @RISK, this tool utilizes Monte Carlo simulation to analyze potential food contamination risk based on a number of factors: the food(s), the hazard(s), the population of concern (for instance, elderly or immune-compromised), the production or processing system being used for the food, the consumption patterns, the dose response (what level of exposure will have a health impact), and how the health effects are to be calculated.
by Emmanuel A. Donkor, The Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment - Volume 59, Issue 1, 2014
The empirical inadequacy of direct application of stochastic dominance rules and their variants has led to the development of statistical tests for making dominance inferences. Yet very little is known about their application in capital investment planning, and the algorithms for their implementation are not readily available to the analyst who uses spreadsheets for capital investment planning. Therefore, this article develops a spreadsheet framework for conducting empirical tests of stochastic dominance when comparing alternative capital investment plans under uncertainty.
by Randy Heffernan, Quality Magazine, April 1, 2014
A recent article written by Palisade's vice president, Randy Heffernan, explores a variety of applications of Monte Carlo simulation in the manufacturing sector, such as: minimizing pilot programs, enterprise resource planning, supply chain continuity and potential financial losses. By utilizing simulation software such as @RISK, risk factors are revealed that would have otherwise taken stakeholders by surprise.
by Randy Heffernan , Risk Management Monitor, January 28, 2014
The Super Bowl brings a significant amount of speculation on a multitude of outcomes—from who will win the match, to what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach. For Super Bowl XLVIII between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks, Randy Heffernan takes the reader through a step-by step guide on how to use Monte Carlo simulation to best predict how many touchdown passes Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning will throw against the Seahawks vaunted defense.
by Gregory DL Morris, American Metal Market, June 26, 2013
Although some steelmakers have been slow to embrace some of the enterprise resource planning (ERP) software systems, others have had success with them. A mill in the United Kingdom recently employed a latest-generation risk-management system to plan and execute a plantwide maintenance turn. One of their largest blast furnaces in Europe had suffered cost and schedule overruns on previous maintenance turns. This time the mill hired a management firm that used @RISK to identify key risks and forecast throughput at the business sites incorporating those risks. The project was a major success and was even completed ahead of schedule.
by Gregory DL Morris, Risk & Insurance, April 2, 2013
Det Norske Veritas (DNV) is a global consultancy that evaluates the technical viability of solar and other renewable energy projects. In its evaluations DNV has developed proprietary systems, but also relies heavily on @RISK. According to Davion Hill, principal engineer with DNV, a higher level of risk analyses, including Monte Carlo simulation, are extremely important for solar projects because they have to be integrated with other sources of power. Whether solar power is being consumed on site, fed to a grid, or stored, the cycling has everything to do with the operating ratio of each source.
by Michelle Bangert, Quality Magazine, 7 August 2013
Monte Carlo simulations, named for the city in Monaco, were developed during the 1940s with the Manhattan Project. But today’s simulation software can be used for a range of industries and applications to help people make decisions about their products and processes. Dr. Eric Maass, co-author of the book "Applying Design for Six Sigma to Software and Hardware Systems," explains that a lot of people don’t realize what they are missing out on by not using simulation software. By running simulations, they can take the guesswork out of applications. In addition, simulation modeling allows everyone involved in the process, from operators on the shop floor to those in management, to visually understand a system.
by Joe Mullich, The Wall Street Journal, 23 September 2013
As green options move toward becoming the norm, new risks can result, such as whether environmentally-friendly materials can withstand a major earthquake, hurricane or flood. Green builders are turning to Monte Carlo simulation, a computational model that examines all possible outcomes and identifies the probabilities of different scenarios happening. According to Randy Heffernan, Palisade's vice-president, “Managers employ the technique to account for budgetary risk, cost risk, schedule risk and more. When you bring in elements such as new and often more expensive building materials or building features that are more weather-dependent—like solar and green roofs—the uncertainty of the entire project is compounded.”
by Gregory DL Morris, Risk & Insurance, 22 July 2013
While momentum of hydropower legislation continues to build on Capitol Hill, companies such as BC Hydro are using @RISK to communicate complex analyses, and have been able to set very aggressive energy conservation goals. According to Basil Stumborg, a decision analysis expert for BC Hydro, “There is a huge incentive for utilities such as BC Hydro to encourage energy conservation. But while the motivation is there, it is often difficult to know whether these ambitious targets can be achieved.”
by Gregory DL Morris, Risk & Insurance, 1 May 2013
A recurring problem in solar energy is the long-term viability of the companies that make the panels and issue long warranties for their performance. Det Norske Veritas is a global consultancy that evaluates the technical viability of solar and other renewable energy projects. DNV analyses show there is usually a 5 percent to 10 percent drop in a panel's power output in the first 12 to 18 months, and then it levels off to a degradation of just about 1 percent per year for the life of the panel. In its evaluations, DNV has developed proprietary systems, but also relies heavily on commercial risk-simulation software such as @RISK.
by Randy Heffernan, Risk Management, 4 March 2013
The article explores 3 examples of Monte Carlo simulation technology applied for non-business uses: Hurricane Katrina call center, Guatamala volcano evaluation, and pandemic preparation.
by Emmanuel A. Donkor, The Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment - Volume 58, Issue 1, 2013
This paper investigates the use of chance constraints in modeling the debt financing decision under conditions of debt heterogeneity and uncertainty. We develop a stochastic financial model that uses simulation optimization to select an optimal mix of fixed-rate debt instruments from different sources, with the objective of maximizing net present value (NPV) while limiting default risk. We then use simulation to evaluate the performance of the resulting debt policy. Numerical results from our model indicate that in a world of uncertainty, project promoters who wish to create bankable proposals for project financing, by limiting the probability of default, should spread debt across different maturities.
by Randy Heffernan, Executive Insight, 12 December 2012
For many healthcare providers, risk analysis technology, which utilizes a computational method called Monte Carlo simulation, has proven to be a valuable asset in understanding risk factors and making crucial decisions that address real-world healthcare concerns, such as determining optimal staffing, patient capacity and facility expansion.
by Bill Kenealy, Business Insurance, 23 September 2012
In light of evolving demands from customers, makers of enterprise risk management software programs are reworking their offerings with an emphasis on increased speed and usability. Randy Heffernan, vice president of Palisade, is quoted in the article.
by Randy Heffernan, Supply Chain Digital, 8 August 2012
The lack of extensive risk analysis performed in the supply chain will continue to be detrimental to efficiency. As supply chains expand globally, their risk of disruption also grows. Catastrophic events, such as the Japanese earthquake and Hurricane Katrina, have highlighted the need for analysis of disruption risk and development of mitigation plans to cope with that risk.
by Randy Heffernan, E-Commerce Times, 14 July 2012
How do businesses eliminate risk? The simple answer is this: They can't. It is impossible. Understand the nature of risk factors, and plan strategies accordingly. Create an environment in which the reality of risk is communicated, and employ the latest technological advances to forecast risk in order to improve the company's "risk health."
by Randy Heffernan, Actuarial Post, July 2012
Increased use of risk analysis in the form of quantitative risk management (QRM) and decision-making under uncertainty (DMUU) is helping organizations to be prepared for unforeseen risk.
by Fernando Hernandez, SupplyChainBrain magazine, July 3, 2012
The expansion of global supply chains has meant an exponential growth of the risk of disruptions to those networks. Organizations around the world are turning their eyes away from decision making processes based on single-point estimates, and viewing their risks and opportunities with more sophisticated techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation.
by Fernando Hernandez, SupplyChainBrain magazine, July 3, 2012
Alternative Energy eMagazine interviewed Randy Heffernan, Vice President of Palisade, about risk analysis in the energy industry. The article highlights FutureMetrics’ use of @RISK to hedge wood prices in the production of burning wood pellets.
by Stephen Johnson, Baseline, 5 June 2012
Community services provider Arc of Yates utilizes simulation program to predict potential budget shortfalls
The Actuary, 13 March 2012
A South African infrastructure development company has used @RISK risk analysis software to ensure it attracts funding for projects to deliver basic community services that would otherwise be ‘unbankable’.
by Randy Heffernan, Banking New York, March, 2012
Taken separately, the most severe natural events are unlikely to occur. However, Mother Nature can take many forms, and her wrath is notoriously difficult to predict accurately, even with the best practices and software tools used by meteorologists. It is that unpredictability that makes such events so destructive.
by Scott Mongeau, Energy & Environmental Management, February 9, 2012
Using risk analysis software such as Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite enables the development of profitable business cases for sustainable energy projects. A biofuel plant provides a good example, although the principles are equally applicable to sustainable energy initiatives such as wind or solar energy.
by Randy Heffernan, PropertyCasualty360, 19 January 2012
In the world of reinsurance, accurately determining risk is critical. The application of Monte Carlo simulation is being considered more often in order to better prepare a variety of industries for a range of events.
by Randy Heffernan, Enterprise Systems Journal, January 16, 2012
Risk is not an exact science, but there are specific trends that should impact decision makers in the year to come.
by Randy Heffernan Risk Management Monitor, December 16, 2011
This article discusses how organizations should take a more strategic approach to weather risk. Heffernan explains how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to help with flood planning, hurricane response, and even volcano mitigation planning. He also advises on the right strategy to implement quantitative weather risk analysis; which includes supplying evidence; communicating clearly; illustrating with numbers; creating the right organizational structure; thinking laterally; viewing the complete picture; reporting and reviewing, and learning new tricks.
Environment Industry Magazine, December 2011
This case study takes a biofuel plant as an example where @RISK models the project's Net Present Value (NPV), PrecisionTree informs strategic scenario decision-making, and Evolver suggests plant optimisation strategies.
by Craig Ferri, Contingency Today, 1 December 2011
The riots in the UK this summer prompted discussions on the trade-offs between adequate policing and budget cuts. Palisade's Craig Ferri asks whether it is possible to learn from how other sectors predict risk to find better, more cost-effective ways to control crime. (free registration necessary to view the article)
by Randy Heffernan, ZDNet, October 14, 2011
In this byline, Randy Heffernan, vice president of Palisade Corporation, outlines risk management best practices to ensure the success of software projects and shares tips for crafting effective risk management strategies. He discusses how to effectively calculate and manage risk and explains the significance of the concept of probabilities.
by Pam Baker, CIO Update, October 5, 2011
In this article, Randy Heffernan, vice president of Palisade Corporation is quoted on the emerging risk management software market. The article discusses the appeal of risk management software to large enterprises and talks about the current state of risk management market and its possible future.
by Randy Heffernan, Actuarial Post, October 2011
The reinsurance industry has endured numerous larger than expected losses in the last decade or so -- everything from Hurricane Katrina to the global financial crisis to the Japanese earthquakes. Perhaps spurred by these losses, the world of reinsurance is looking at different ways of thinking about risk and how to manage it.
by Craig Ferri, Risk UK, October 2010
Palisade Europe Managing Director Craig Ferri provides a list of guidelines for implementing Quantitative Risk Management (QRM) and Decision Making under Uncertainty (DMU).
by James Powell, Enterprise Systems, September 19, 2011
Given the state of the current global economy, there's been a lot of talk about the need for "proper risk analysis." The concept of risk analysis and management has been around for many years but still is not executed well within the software industry. For any risk analysis assessment to be meaningful, it must take into account the concept of probabilities -- still a relatively foreign concept to many decision-makers. Q&A with Randy Heffernan, vice president of Palisade Corporation, discussing some of the most common reasons for the failure of risk management initiatives that can be applied to ensure the success of software projects.
by Craig Ferri, Risk Management Professional, September 2010
Palisade Europe Managing Director Craig Ferri explains how 'Black Swan' events are changing perceptions of risk analysis.
by Craig Ferri, BSC: The Chartered Institute for IT, September 2010
Palisade Europe Managing Director Craig Ferri explains why it is so crucial that risk managers have a higher profile.
by Craig Ferri, Strategic Risk, July 20, 2010
Palisade Europe Managing Director Craig Ferri explains why now is the perfect opportunity for risk managers to play a more important role in companies than ever before.
by Lora Bentley, IT Business Edge, March 3, 2009
Yale University behavioral economists professor Robert Shiller recently identified the cause of the financial crisis, stating: "The real problem is that we weren’t managing risk." But risk management is more than panic: it's also good business. Once companies begin to better manage risks, other corporations that wish to retain competitive advantage will follow suit.
by Douglas Hubbard and Douglas Samuelson, Analytics magazine, Fall 2009
The authors examine decision analysis methods that merely make people feel better about their decisions with those that produce measurable improvements over time. They find that Monte Carlo simulation is one of the most effective methods for decision and risk analysis.
by Kate Plourd, CFO Magazine, January 1, 2009
This article cites a survey of 125 CFOs in which nearly 75 percent of respondents said risk management now outranks key issues such as debt financing, relationships with banks, pension-plan asset allocation, and equity financing.
Digital Energy Journal, June/July 2008
@RISK is used to assess the relative benefits of different drilling strategies for Lundin, a small exploration company, for field development.
by Alex Forrest, MiningNewsPremium.net, 10 January 2008
A MINING project's viability ultimately hinges on minimising risk. While doing this may not be as simple as analysing your chances at the tables in Vegas, the software available to help mining companies assess their project risk is becoming increasingly advanced. Alex Forrest looks at a leading risk management software provider.
by David Robson, Scientific Computing World, August/September 2007
A discussion of how modelling software is having an impact on monitoring the spread of global diseases. An example using @RISK to combat avian flu is included.
by Ninad Patil, M.D., M.S. and Timothy J. Smith, R.Ph., Ph.D.,Scientific Computing, July 2007, pps 36-38
Researchers at the University of the Pacific’s Thomas J. Long School of Pharmacy and Health Sciences used Palisade’s NeuralTools to assist in the evaluation of both the impact of pathological processes and their implications for drug therapy.
by Nicholas Pratt, Banking and Technology, 1 July 2006
Palisade's Dr. Michael Rees discusses credit risk assessment in banking.
by Mirek Janusz, Quality Digest, February 2006
Palisade's Mirek Janusz provides a summary of the methodology and applications of neural networks software, including Palisade's NeuralTools.
by Peter Coffee, eWEEK, February 2006
I was looking for a software tool that was easy to use and would do forecasting based on complex parameters,’ said independent health care consultant Barb Tawney, who described to eWEEK Labs her use of NeuralTools from Palisade.
by Marcia Gulesian, Developer.com, 2006
According to a recent Harvard Business School study, higher IT capability directly correlates with superior revenue growth. Nearly all IT managers (at more than 150 large enterprises) surveyed for the study said they plan to increase outsourcing, particularly in the areas of application development and IT infrastructure. This article features PrecisionTree to evaluate outsourcing decisions.
by Marcia Gulesian, Developer.com, 2006
This is the first in a series of articles that will examine some of the most commonly used decision-making methods for the selection or rejection of individual projects throughout the project portfolio management process. These methods determine whether or not a given project (either proposed or in process) should be included in your next capital budget. The article features Evolver for optimization.
Business Continuity, 23 November 2005
Palisade Europe Managing Director Craig Ferri answers questions about business continuity risk in the Ask The Experts column.
by Lauren Barack, On Wall Street, June 2005
In this article, @RISK is used to illustrate how to plan for retirement more accurately using Monte Carlo simulation.
by Dr. Michael Rees of Palisade Corp, Risk Magazine, 2004,
Palisade's Dr. Michael Rees demonstrates a practical example of how, using @RISK, it's possible to analyze house lending.
by George Birbilis and Gautam Mitra, CARISMA Centre for the Analysis of Risk and Optimisation Modelling Applications, Brunel University, UK, Risk International Yearbook 2003, 15 August 2003
This article demonstrates how a simulation approach using @RISK can be used as a simple but effective financial planning tool.
by Alan Carpenter, June 11, 2003
@RISK is used to achieve "play balance" - that is, making sure a game is neither too hard nor too easy - for sophisticated interactive role-playing video games.
A Case Study from London Business School using @RISK, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer
BusinessWeek, January 22, 2001
Public Roads Magazine, November/December 2000
PCWeek, March 1999
Derivatives Strategy, August 1996
Sam O. Sugiyama & Jeffrey Chow
European Journal of Operational Research