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Brazilian oil company Petrobras uses @RISK for Exploration & Production analysis

1 July 2011, Brasil - Petrobras, the Brazilian oil producer and refinery operator, and the eighth largest global company in the world, is using @RISK from Palisade for Exploration & Production (E&P) analysis. The company integrated @RISK with Progride, the system that it developed internally to evaluate the economic risks associated with potential investments.

Modelling a variety of E&P data including oil prices, exchange rates and capital expenditure, Progride returns key information such as the Net Present Value (NPV) and return time of a project, as well as the financial exposure it presents to the company. However, although the tool is highly useful in helping the company to make more informed decisions, it has some limitations, which prompted the decision to use @RISK.

Progride’s risk analysis does not provide user access to the simulation data, preventing analysts from getting a closer look at different probabilistic scenarios. In addition, it cannot effectively handle more complex projects, such as those done in partnership with other companies, projects that share common infrastructure, or integrated projects with multiple concessions.

Combining Progride with @RISK (in Excel), enables accurate and comprehensive assessment of a production platform with multiple concessions. Specifically, Petrobras’s integrated solution gives the company a number of valuable benefits:

  • It permits the separation of probabilistic scenarios for shared risk factors common to the projects being analyzed
  • The use of @RISK allows the analysis of projects undertaken with partners.  (A separate Progride analysis is done for each partner, treating the fiscal aspects individually, but sharing the project risk factors)
  • This approach enables the analysis of integrated projects with multiple concessions, with a separate Progride analysis for each concession that treats the fiscal and depreciation aspects individually while sharing project risk factors. 
  • Similarly, projects that share infrastructure with other, separate projects or concessions can now also be modeled in the same manner.
  • @RISK helps Petrobras reduce the calculation time for projections that used to take thousands of hours to a single day.

Case study: Petrobras uses @RISK for E&P Analysis

For more information, contact:

Randy Heffernan
Tel: +1 607-277-8000
Fax: +1 607-277-8001

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