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2018




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

November 15-16, 2018 • San Diego

Our Biggest Event of the Year – Palisade’s 2018 Risk Conference San Diego

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

The 2018 Palisade Risk Conference in San Diego will take place November 15-16 at The Westgate Hotel. The conference offers multiple tracks, including software training sessions on @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite, and practitioner case study sessions. Case studies encompass a wide range of applications. Past events have included topics such as supply chain management with Amway, quantifying megaproject risk with Ontario Power Generation, communicating risk to decision makers with CH2M Hill, valuing R&D projects with Novelis, and many more.

The 2017 Palisade Risk Conference in Nashville brought together over 100 decision-makers from a wide range of industries to discuss the latest trends and best practices in risk and decision analysis. This year’s event promises multiple tracks of real-world industry case studies, professional development, networking opportunities, and more.

Conference attendees will also be able to meet with Palisade consultants in one-on-one Expert Sessions. You’ll get a chance to bring your own models for the consultant to review.

Plus, you won’t want to miss all the networking opportunities included with your conference registration, including lunches, breaks, and a reception where you can share ideas and exchange business cards with other professionals facing similar challenges.

View the 2017 Risk Conference schedule and presentations

Quotes from Attendees

“The conference is filled with interesting sessions, brilliant people, and great professional opportunities.”

Susan Parente, Principal, S3 Technologies

“Very worthwhile use of time.”

Eric Ho, Senior Risk Manager, Arcadis

“This conference was the perfect jump start to my learning experience.”

Vy Kieu, Engineer, Salt River Project

“An excellent mix of statistical knowledge, application, and focus on development.”

Dominic Abadie, Senior Risk Analyst, Whitney Bank

“Always a tough decision deciding which sessions to attend.”

Kevin Weaver, Consultant, First Energy Corp

“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development

Conference Tracks - Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer various ways to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Expert Sessions:

Sign up for a one-on-one session with a Palisade consultant to get advice on your particular model or risk modeling issue.

Networking – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. Lunches, breaks and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2018 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2018 include Austin, Minneapolis, New York, Mumbai, Shanghai, Taipei, Paris, Glasgow, Vienna and more.

Information about 2018 Conferences


Register Now

Register today to attend the conference.

San Diego: 15-16 November 2018  Palisade Risk Conference
San Diego: 15-16 November 2018
Palisade Risk Conference

Offer
Register now for only $395  $295.  Save $100.
Includes breaks, lunches, receptions, complete schedule, and Expert Session.
Offer

 
Price: $295.00

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Software Presentations      
  Industry Case Studies

Thursday 15 November 2018 · San Diego

This is a preliminary schedule and may change without notice at any time.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and coffee
9:00 - 9:50
10:00 - 10:50
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Introduction to @RISK
Michelle Jackson
Palisade Corporation

10:50 - 11:20
Break
11:20 - 12:10
CASE STUDY

TBD
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY

TBD
Dr. Francisco Zagmutt
EpiX Analytics

12:20 - 1:10
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Selecting the Right Distribution to use in @RISK
Dr. José Raúl Castro Esparza
Palisade Corporation

1:10 - 2:10
Lunch
2:10 - 3:00
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Tips and Tricks in @RISK
Michelle Jackson
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY

Top Line: It's Legal! Now What?
Clay Graham
Advantage Analytics, LLC

3:10 - 4:00
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Exploring Custom Solutions using Palisade Technologies
Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY

Value of @RISK in Resource Planning and Energy Risk Management
Glen Justis
Experience on Demand
Lina Alvarez
Brownsville Public Utilities

CASE STUDY

Helping Renewables Make Cent$
Mark Rudd
Rudd Asset Manager

4:10-6:30
Welcome Reception

Friday 16 November 2018 · San Diego

This is a preliminary schedule and may change without notice at any time.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:50
Keynote

Brendan McGrath
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis

10:00 - 10:50
10:50 - 11:20
Break
11:20 - 12:10
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Time Series Analysis in @RISK
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY

TBD
Edward Jeack
Lowell Corporation

12:20 - 1:10
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Data Analysis and Prediction with StatTools and NeuralTools
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY

NextGen Project Risk Management
Dr. Prasad Kodukula
Kodukula & Associates

1:10 - 2:10
Lunch
2:10 - 3:00
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Finding Optimal Solutions with RISKOptimizer and Evolver
Dr. José Raúl Castro Esparza
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY

Making Better-Informed Business Decisions About Cyber-Security Risk
Derek Brink
Aberdeen Group

CASE STUDY

Applying Risk Mitigation Index and @RISK
JD Solomon
Jacobs Engineering

3:10 - 4:00
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Decision Modeling with PrecisionTree
Dr. José Raúl Castro Esparza
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY

Simulating the Economic Impact of Rice Disease in the United States
Dr. Lanier Nalley
University of Arkansas

4:10 - 4:25
Closing Remarks and Raffle

Presenters

  Lina Alvarez, M.Eng.

Energy Risk Manager
Brownsville Public Utilities Board

Lina Alvarez, Energy Risk Manager has worked at Brownsville Public Utilities Board for 15 years. She currently leads BPUB’s energy risk management program, including implementation and maintenance of policies, procedures, risk exposure limits, and analytics. In addition, Lina provides project management coordination for resource planning-related activities such as long-term resource analysis and contracting. Lina holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in electrical engineering, and previously completed training in the Palisade Decision Tools Suite.

  José Raúl Castro Esparza, Ph.D., MBA

Training Consultant
Palisade Corporation

José Raúl Castro Esparza is a consultant and a full time professor at BUAP (Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla) in Puebla, Mexico where he co-founded the career of Actuarial Sciences. He earned his bachelor’s degree as an Actuary from Universidad de las Américas, Puebla (UDLAP), an MBA at Universidad Iberoamericana (IBERO) and a Ph. D. in Finance from Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla (UPAEP). Dr. Castro’s experience accounts for over 10 years in the chemical industry, working in the areas of Financial and Logistics Planning for companies such as Ciba-Geigy, Novartis Crop Protection and Syngenta. In the academic field he has taught for over 20 years a variety of Risk Analysis and Computer Modelling courses at a graduate and undergraduate level.

  Mark Cronshaw, Ph.D., MBA

Principal
Resource Economics LLC

Dr. Mark Cronshaw is a natural resource economist, and the principal of Resource Economics LLC. He has over twenty five years of experience in oil & gas, mining, telecommunications, and academics. He has been an expert witness for an oil and gas contract dispute in Kurdistan and property tax disputes for the Trans Alaska Pipeline System. He has participated in numerous valuations of upstream oil and gas properties and several mines. He has built economic models of production sharing contracts in Kazakhstan, Kurdistan, Egypt, Albania, and Bangladesh. He worked on developing the natural gas market in Afghanistan, and on natural gas storage in the Republic of Georgia. He advised an international client on onshore oil and gas bidding in Brazil.

He has taught energy economics, microeconomics, mathematical economics, game theory, decision analysis, and business strategy at the University of Colorado-Boulder and the Colorado School of Mines. He has a PhD from Stanford (where he was a Hertz Fellow), an MBA from Southern Methodist University, an MS in Chemical Engineering from the California Institute of Technology and BA/MA/M Eng in Chemical Engineering from Cambridge University (UK).

  Rob Firmin, Ph.D., MBA

CEO
Proclamation

Rob Firmin, currently CEO of an electronics startup, is a serial inventor, entrepreneur and public artist. His speaking experience encompasses three on-air interviews on C-SPAN, formal presentations to seven engineering societies on his published automated process control innovations, the National Historical Society, many speeches to large crowds at his public sculpture dedications, and panel discussions at various computer software conventions (one with Bill Gates). He is at ease providing clear explanations of technical material, often with spontaneous humor thrown in.

Experience with @RISK spans large and small-scale financial modeling for his own ventures, risk assessment for a California municipality, and plans for public sculpture projects, among others. His career also includes: founder of Javelin Software and its CEO and chief inventor; head of financial planning & analysis at Prime Computer; Sr. VP at two large software companies; and CFO of an early color printer company. His formal education includes a doctorate in demography from UChicago and an MBA from Columbia.

  Carolyn Ford, Ph.D., MBA

Director of International Undergraduate Recruitment
University of Western Ontario

Carolyn Ford has been with The University of Western Ontario for seven years, serving as Director International Undergraduate Recruitment since 2013, where her operational and research interests focus on strategic enrolment management in the higher education sector. Prior to Western, she served 14 years in the US Army and US Army Reserve. Her academic background includes DPhil and MBA degrees at The University of Oxford (2005) and The University of Western Ontario (Ivey Business School 2011). Over the course of her career, Carolyn has lived, studied and worked in Canada, United Kingdom, United States, Germany, and Taiwan (Republic of China).

  Mumbie Fredson-Cole

Branch Chief of the Risk Management Unit
Caltrans

Mumbie Fredson-Cole has been a professional engineer for many years, during which he has been involved in the design of transportation projects, taught computer aided drafting and design to other engineers and managed major transportation projects.

As a senior engineer and project manager, for several years he managed a portfolio of projects totaling over one billion dollars. From his experience, he believes that risk management or probability management as some are choosing to call it, is just a pragmatic way of dealing with the most important responsibility of every project manager.

  Clayton J. Graham

Management Consultant
Advantage Analytics, LLC

Clay is an analytical professional with broad experiences in mathematical modeling. Applications include and are not limited to: Aerospace engineering, Financial stochastics (merger and acquisition), Educational value and performance measurement, Sports gaming (gambling). He started his career with A.T. Kearney, Inc. Since then he’s been an entrepreneur owning and operating companies in the – metal finishing, management consulting and aerospace industries. He holds a BS from Purdue and graduate degrees in economics and business (Kellogg Graduate School of Business) and is an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University.

  Rafael Hartke

Oil and Energy Industry Consultant
Palisade Corporation

Rafael Hartke is an Oil and Energy Industry Consultant at Palisade Corporation, where he works in the development and strategy of quantitative risk analysis methods. He has particular experience in the energy industry, having served as a Financial Engineer in Risk Management at Brazilian-based energy corporation, Petrobras in the Financial Planning and Risk Management department.  There, he created risk models for complex investments and assessed project risks for medium and large projects, including Brazilian Pre-Salt giant fields, projects in the Gulf of Mexico, and offshore infrastructure projects.  

Rafael has an MSc degree in Mechanical Engineering and is also a Global Association of Risk Professionals-certified Energy Risk Professional.
Rafael’s main interests and activities include:

  • Development of mathematical models in engineering and finance
  • Modeling of complex investment projects (risks, options, real options)
  • Monitoring, econometric modeling and forecasting of time series (commodity prices, commodity demands and financial series)
  • Research and training in risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

  Randy Heffernan, MBA

Chief Executive Officer
Palisade Corporation

With over two decades at Palisade, Randy Heffernan has seen the company transform from a US-based provider of industry-leading Excel tools to a global powerhouse in the field of risk analysis and decision science. His history at Palisade has included management of sales, marketing, operations, infrastructure, legal and other functions. Randy spearheaded a number of notable company expansions, including the establishment of offices in Europe and Australia. More recently, his focus has shifted into product development and support, as well as strategic planning.

Randy holds a BS degree in Business Management and Marketing, and an MBA, both from Cornell University.

  Fernando Hernández

Senior Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Fernando Hernández' areas of expertise are banking, finance, manufacturing, project evaluation, market forecasting and pricing. Fernando currently owns and operates InfoMasters, a company geared towards training, consulting and developing financial applications and decision making models for financial and manufacturing companies, using Microsoft Office and Palisade software. He has developed and taught courses including Intro to Corporate Finance, and Financial Simulation and Investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has created financial models, risk analyses and feasibility studies using @RISK. Fernando earned his licentiate degree in Finance Administration from the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar, he completed his MBA at Indiana University majoring in Finance & MIS.

  Michelle Jackson

@RISK Product Manager
Palisade Corporation

Michelle Jackson began her career with Palisade 10 years ago when she joined Palisade’s Marketing Department. Within the last few years she has shifted her focus to Palisade end users ­- initially with BigPicture ­- and now with @RISK. She is a liaison between the developers, sales managers, trainers and users of @RISK and BigPicture. She also helps with providing consistent webinars to help share the many features @RISK has to offer. Michelle received a Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematical Computing with a primary focus in Statistics from Plymouth State University. She also holds a double minor in Computer Programming and Biology.

  Glen Justis, MBA

Senior Partner
Experience on Demand

Glen Justis is a Senior Partner at Experience on Demand, a St. Louis-based management consulting firm. He previously worked for Deloitte & Touche, R. W. Beck, and Ameren Corporation. Over his 30+ year career in consulting and industry, Glen has served municipal, cooperative, investor-owned, state, and federal utilities across the U.S. and Canada. His professional focus areas include strategy, business analytics, forecasting, and risk management. In addition to utilities, Glen serves other capital-intensive industries such as infrastructure and manufacturing. He holds MBA and engineering degrees and has completed executive education at The Wharton School in competitive strategy.

  Dr. Prasad S. Kodukula, PMP, PgMP

Founder and CEO
Kodukula & Associates, Inc.

Dr. Prasad S. Kodukula, PMP, PgMP, is a speaker, coach, author, inventor, and entrepreneur with more than 30 years of professional experience. Prasad has spoken in 45 countries and worked with 40 Fortune 100 companies (e.g., Abbott, BP, Chrysler, Dow, Kraft Foods, IBM, JPMorgan Chase, Motorola, Stryker, United Technologies). He is co-founder and CEO of two companies: Kodukula & Associates, Inc., a project management services company; and NeoChloris, Inc., a clean energy startup. He is Lecturer at the University of Chicago and Adjunct Faculty at Illinois Institute of Technology. He was recognized twice by the Project Management Institute as “Best of the Best in Project Management” with 2016 Eric Jenett Project Management Award of Excellence and 2010 PMI Distinguished Contribution Award. 2Ci, a company Prasad cofounded, was recognized in 2005 as the most innovative company in the environmetal business category by the state of Illinois. He is a co-author or contributing author of eight books and more than 40 articles. He co-owns three patents.

  Karl San Luis, MS

Engineer
Pure Technologies

Karl San Luis is a professional engineer with nine years of project experience working for public utilities as well as private consultants designing and planning water and wastewater facilities. Over the past five years, Karl has developed statistical methods for pipeline condition assessment and stochastic models that incorporate condition data for identifying and managing risk associated with large diameter transmission mains. As part of his efforts with Pure Technologies, he has developed risk models comprehensive risk assessment approach and life cycle analysis that utilizes machine learning to better identify assets that should be investigated to clearly identify actual condition in order to justify repair and replacement decisions.

He has a Masters of Science degree in Applied and Computational Mathematics at Johns Hopkins University (2018) and a Bachelor of Science degree in Chemical Engineering (2005).

  Brendan McGrath, CFA, CPA

First Vice President, Director of Credit Risk Analysis
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis

Brendan McGrath is a First Vice President, Director of Credit Risk Analysis in the Enterprise Risk Management department at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis, one of 11 U.S. government sponsored entities that support housing finance by providing liquidity to its member financial institutions. Brendan joined FHLBI’s investments team in 2000 and has experience in trading, fixed income portfolio management, mortgage analytics, risk management, and credit, market and operational risk modeling.

Mr. McGrath earned a CFA charter and a CPA license and for six years sat on the Board of Directors for the CFA Society of Indianapolis, including serving as its President from 2009-2010. Mr. McGrath earned a BS in Finance and an MS in Accounting from Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business and is also a member of the Beta Gamma Sigma honor society.

  Chris McKay

Turnaround Specialist
Nutrien

Chris McKay works for Nutrien, the product of a recent merger with Agrium and PCS (Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan). In his current role as a Turnaround Specialist, he is focused on the evolution of cost and schedule controls to contribute to the improved predictability of turnaround performance. His previous experience includes Operations, Turnaround Management, and Reliability. When not in school on the weekends, he works on shamelessly feeding his 2-year old, Isaac’s, obsession with airplanes.

  John McKenzie

Agricultural and Resource Economist
Innovastat

John McKenzie, Agricultural and Resource Economist, is especially interested in adapting corporate analytical tools and methods for policy decisions, and also for rural development. He spends his time between Fraser, Colorado and Bogotá, Colombia. Among his endeavors, he is a consultant/trainer with Palisade.

  Lanier Nalley, Ph.D.

Professor
University of Arkansas

Dr. Nalley is a Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Arkansas. His research focuses on the nexus of food security and climate change. He has published in over 70 journals including The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Climatic Change, Global Change Biology, Global Food Security and the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Dr. Nalley is also a Fellow of the University of Arkansas Teaching Academy.

  Robert C. Patev

National Risk Advisor
Risk Management Center, Institute for Water Resources, US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)

Robert Patev serves as the National Risk Advisor to the Director of the Risk Management Center, US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). In his current capacity, he supports Headquarters USACE, Divisions, Districts and other federal agencies in the development of methodologies for risk and reliability assessment of Civil Works Infrastructure Projects. Mr. Patev's professional experience and interests since joining the USACE in 1991 have focused primarily in the areas of risk and reliability assessment and asset management of the USACE Civil Works Infrastructure. In recent years, Mr. Patev has technically supported the USACE Dam and Levee Safety Programs, USACE Asset Management Program as well as Operations and Maintenance Divisions at Headquarters USACE. Mr. Patev currently works on international risk projects with other governmental agencies all over the world including Canada, Sweden, Germany, Netherlands, France, UK and Belgium. Mr. Patev has published numerous articles in both academic and industry journals and textbooks. Mr. Patev has two BS degrees (Geology and Geotechnical Engineering), a MS degree in Structural Engineering and is currently finishing his PhD in the Reliability Program at the University of Maryland.

  Mark Rudd

President
Rudd Asset Management LLC

Mark Rudd is President of Rudd Asset Management (RAM) and an experienced Palisade software user. @RISK is routinely used to assess project technical and financial performance. RISKOptimizer and PrecisionTree are used for design optimization and live option analysis. Analytical software and 46 years of power generation experience are a proven combination for better project results.

  JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP

Vice President
CH2M Hill

JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP is a practice area leader and senior consultant with CH2M/Jacobs focusing on risk, reliability, and strategic decision making. Some of his areas of practice include infrastructure health and prognostics, financial management, operations and maintenance (O&M) optimization, and master planning. JD’s 2017 book, Communicating Reliability, Risk, and Resiliency to Decision Makers, is a practitioner’s guide for bridging the gap between technical analysis and decision making. He is a Certified Reliability Engineer (CRE), Certified Maintenance and Reliability Professional (CMRP), is certified in Lean Management, and is a Six Sigma Black Belt. JD has a Professional Certificate in Strategic Decision and Risk Management from Stanford, an MBA from the University of South Carolina, and a BS Civil Engineering from NC State University.

  William Strauss, Ph.D.

President and Founder
FutureMetrics

William Strauss is the President and founder of FutureMetrics. FutureMetrics is the leading consultancy in the wood pellet sector. Bill continues to be a thought leader in the sector and has published numerous papers on a variety of subjects relevant to the wood pellet sector. Bill has been named as one of the most influential leaders in the biomass sector in 2016 and again in 2017 by Argus Media, and is the 2012 recipient of the International Excellence in Bioenergy award. Bill has more than forty years of strategic and policy planning, project management, data analysis, operations, and modeling experience in the renewable energy sector including 10 years operating large waste-to-energy plants in the 1980s. He has an MBA (specializing in finance) and a PhD (economics and earth systems science).

  Gustavo Vinueza, MBA, MS

Director of Custom Solutions
Palisade Corporation

Gustavo Vinueza is a Systems Engineer with more than 16 years of experience consulting for companies in finance & banking, telecommunications, insurance, and IT related services. Gustavo has worked with Palisade since 2011 as a Training Consultant and in the last year as Director of Custom Solutions. He earned his MBA from Torcuato Di Tella University in Argentina and a MS in Finance from Adolfo Ibáñez University in Chile. His main focuses are in financial and operational modeling, including scientific and academic research into business practice as well as data mining related matters.

His experience includes managing project portfolios (both operational and IT related), cost reduction programs, public purchases bidding, operational controls, capacity analysis, audit processes and software development projects, beside technological infrastructure implementation. He has also earned diplomas in Project Management, Usability, Business Process Management and Business Analytics.

  Francisco J. Zagmutt, PhD, DVM, MPVM

Managing Director
EpiX Analytics

Francisco is a managing director of EpiX Analytics LLC. Francisco has led simulation, risk modeling, optimization, and decision-analysis projects in a wide variety of industries on every continent. Examples of his consulting work include strategic forecasting and optimization of inventory under high uncertainty, modeling of catastrophic events, and risk modeling for government rulemaking. His experience working with a diverse clientele allows him and his team to use cutting-edge methods to customize solutions to the specific client’s needs while also being able to effectively communicate the applicability and strategic value of the work with senior management. Francisco has a Masters from UC Davis, and a PhD from Colorado State University, where he is also an adjunct professor.

Abstracts

Plenary Sessions

  Welcome and Introductions

Randy Heffernan
Palisade Corporation

  Keynote Speaker

Brendan McGrath
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis

Abstract coming soon.

Software Presentations

  Introduction to @RISK

Michelle Jackson
Palisade Corporation

This introduction to @RISK will walk you through a risk analysis using various example models. Key features of @RISK will be highlighted. You will experience the intuitive interface of @RISK as you define distributions, correlations, and other model components. During simulation you will be able to see all charts, thumbnails, and reports update in real time. View results with a variety of graphing and reporting options. There’s so much to see, we’ll cover as much as time permits.

  Introduction to Optimization, Decision Trees, and Sensitivity Analysis using The DecisionTools Suite

Rafael Hartke
Palisade Corporation

Palisade's DecisionTools Suite package provides a number of different tools for risk and decision analysis. In addition to @RISK, popular tools in the set include TopRank, a powerful program which allows fast and easy sensitivity analysis on any Excel model, PrecisionTree which allows users to build decision trees for evaluating options, and Evolver/RISKOptimizer for building optimization models. In this presentation, we will look at some example models that demonstrate the capabilities of each of these tools.

  Selecting the Right Distribution for Use in @RISK

Dr. José Raúl Castro Esparza
Palisade Corporation

This session covers choosing the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. The use of distributions to treat a variety of risk modeling situations is discussed, and some more advanced features such as bootstrapping, batch fitting, and the live fit function will be covered as time permits.

  Tips and Tricks for @RISK and The DecisionTools Suite

Michelle Jackson
Palisade Corporation

While many of the common features of @RISK have been explored in depth, there are some advanced and underutilized features that can add a lot of value to your modeling. This session will explain a number of tips and tricks, including: fitting distributions to output simulation data, custom reporting, filtering, and storing simulation data.

  Exploring Custom Solutions using Palisade Technologies Software: Examples from Finance, Manufacturing, Project Management, and More

Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Custom Development has written dozens of different types of specialized applications using the functionality of @RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank, and other DecisionTools products. These applications run the gamut of industry sectors and are specifically designed to accomplish just what the client needs. In this way, Palisade custom-designed applications simplify the rollout of powerful decision-making analytics within organizations by reducing learning curves and removing any potentially confusing options for users. Interfaces, model logic, and reports can all be tailored to the client's exact specifications, driven by powerful Palisade analytics "under the hood."

Most Palisade custom solutions run directly in Excel, using VBA and the Excel Developer Kit (or XDK) feature of the DecisionTools Suite programs. Some are built using the @RISK Developer Kit (RDK), a programming toolkit that runs outside the Excel platform and can be used on a web server. This session will highlight a number of interesting examples of different types of custom applications we've done. They include cost estimation, risk registers, asset management, retirement planning, oil and gas prospecting, and more.

  Introduction to Project Risk Management with @RISK

Rafael Hartke
Palisade Corporation

The aim of this seminar is to provide a basic understanding of how @RISK can help you manage uncertainty in your Microsoft Project schedules. Using Monte Carlo simulation, you will learn how to account for schedule and costs risks in a quick and comprehensive way. At last, here is a way to answer the question “What is the probability that my project will come in on time and within budget?” With @RISK, risk modeling of your Project schedules is much more flexible and powerful than ever before.

We will show you how to set up and run simulations, and how to interpret the results. You will learn how to use @RISK step by step, and become familiar with basic concepts and terminology. We’ll demonstrate powerful graphing and reporting that pinpoints where your risks lie and what their impact may be.

You will see how using @RISK for your projects enables you to:

  • Calculate the probability of success
  • Graph the margin of error around the most likely outcome
  • Quantify and prioritize the risk drivers
  • Quantify the amount ‘@RISK’

  Data Analysis and Prediction with StatTools and NeuralTools

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

In this session you will learn how to use Palisade’s two data analysis tools: StatTools and NeuralTools.

StatTools is a Microsoft Excel statistics add-in. This session will cover how to perform the most common statistical tests, and will include topics such as: Statistical Inference, Forecasting, Data Management, Summary Analyses, and Regression Analysis.

NeuralTools imitates brain functions in order to “learn” the structure of your data. Once NeuralTools understands the data, it can take new inputs and make intelligent predictions. The new predictions are based on the patterns in known data, and offer uncanny accuracy. NeuralTools can automatically update predictions when input data changes, and it can even be combined with Palisade’s Evolver or Excel’s Solver to optimize tough decisions and achieve desired goals. This session uses easy-to-understand examples to demonstrate applications of NeuralTools predictions. We will also touch upon some of the exciting new procedures in StatTools.

  Finding Optimal Solutions with RISKOptimizer and Evolver

Dr. José Raúl Castro Esparza
Palisade Corporation

RISKOptimizer and Evolver use powerful algorithms to perform optimization in Microsoft Excel. RISKOptimizer – an advanced analytical tool that comes with @RISK Industrial – builds on traditional optimization by adding Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertain (stochastic), uncontrollable factors in your optimization problem. RISKOptimizer and Evolver employ genetic algorithms to arrive at solutions to nonlinear problems that are impossible to find using traditional methods, and they also offer different methods for quickly solving other types of problems.

This session introduces you to these powerful tools, showing you how to set up a model, define constraints within the model, and ultimately arrive at the optimal outcome. These steps will be illustrated by means of a detailed retirement portfolio optimization example.

  Decision Modeling with PrecisionTree

Dr. José Raúl Castro Esparza
Palisade Corporation

PrecisionTree is a powerful visual and analytical tool for mapping out complex, sequential decisions using decision trees directly in Excel. Using nodes, branches, and probabilities, you can represent and organize decisions ranging from oil prospecting to site development to options analysis. This presentation combines an introduction to the PrecisionTree interface with demonstrations of how PrecisionTree can be used to analyze various problems in decision analysis.

Case Studies

  Operational Risk Exposure and Visualization Tool with Palisade Custom Development

Robert C. Patev
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will discuss the custom development of a software program and visualization tool to assist with the calculations of risks for ~15,000 subcomponents over a 50 year timeframe at 18 different USACE infrastructure projects. The Operational Risk Exposure (ORE) tool calculates the risks of critical components/subcomponents over time to assist with the risk prioritization of investments over the next 25 years. The ORE visualization tool assists the risk managers in their decision making by showing through a graphical interface and risk tables which of the critical components need investments and most importantly when. The ORE tool greatly helps the risk managers to plan and update his work budget and out year planning using risk informed decisions.

  Policy Stress Tests Integrating Advanced Time Series into @RISK, and Public Confidence in Planning

Dr. Rob Firmin
Proclamation

Ongoing analysis supports short and long-range policy decisions for a California municipality. Challenges addressed within @RISK include: integration of advanced time series methods into @RISK to quantify financial effects forecasts of policy alternatives, anomalous events (e.g. wildfires and earthquakes), in addition to everyday variables (e.g., budget items and interest rate fluctuations); non-ad hoc simulations of forecast errors based on asymmetric time series error predictions; and evolutionary probability distributions around timing of critical financial-event triggers (e.g., advent of inadequate reserves). Packaging of results as easily understood stress tests of policy alternatives—presentable to officials and the public—increases confidence in town fiscal responsibility, and reduces discord at town hall meetings.

  Estimating Future Prices for Industrial Wood Pellet Fuel for Power Generation using DecisionTools

Dr. William Strauss
FutureMetrics

In many countries with carbon mitigation policies, the substitution of wood pellets for coal is an important component of an overall carbon reduction strategy. While wind and solar power are important components, they are not able to supply power on-demand; and sometimes cannot generate power at all. In 2018 about 17 million metric tonnes of pellets will be used in power stations instead of coal to provide peaking or baseload renewable power. Both producers and users need to be informed about potential future prices for the pellet fuel. This presentation will provide an overview of the markets for pellets used to produce electricity and explain the rational behind the sustainability and carbon accounting for pellet fuel. The presentation will present the historical supply and demand for pellet fuel and the historical prices for the fuel. Using the tools in DecisionTools Suite, we will model the supply and demand relationship including the potential for disequilibrium between supply and demand given the long lead time to bring on new production capacity. From that we will forecast the expected prices and confidence intervals.

  Arcane to Mundane: Our Journey Towards Articulating Turnaround Risk

Chris McKay
Nutrien

Turnarounds are high-risk events that have relied on point-estimates with inconsistent, or inadequate understanding of risk. This presentation focuses on a journey applying Monte-Carlo techniques to better understand and articulate risk to the critical-path in a turnaround. It will include tactics to ensure quality inputs, minimize bias, and articulate outputs. Comparison with a previous unsuccessful attempt at this process will help reinforce “why." Also included is an overview of how the model was constructed, and learnings for next time.

  Top Line: It's Legal! Now What?

Clayton J. Graham
Advantage Analytics, LLC

On May 14th the Supreme Court of the United States ruled (6-3) that the “Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act” violated the 10th Amendment. This action will open the internet and casinos to legalizes sports gambling across the United States. The gambling market, interest in modeling sports and investment strategies will inevitably proliferate. Monetizing the investment decision requires accurate estimations for the probability of winning the contest and the game. Multiple methods for calculating probability winning using and not limited to - artificial intelligence (Neural Network), logistical regression (Stat Tools), and Monte Carlo Simulation (@RISK) will be demonstrated. Investment tactics utilizing genetic programming (Evolver) will be covered.

  Value of @RISK in Resource Planning and Energy Risk Management at Brownsville Public Utilities Board

Glen Justis
Experience on Demand
Lina Alvarez
Brownsville Public Utilities Board

This presentation showcases the Brownsville Public Utilities Board’s success in adopting a unified @RISK model for resource planning and energy risk management. In addition to an overview of how the models have been developed and implemented, important lessons-learned relating to price behavior assumptions, model architecture, and feature improvements are covered.

  Risk Based Estimates using risk factors and Risk Driven Schedules

Mumbie Fredson-Cole
Caltrans

Deterministic estimates of project costs and their duration are most always off, because of uncertainty and risk events. During the development of a project the impact of uncertainty and risk on the capital cost can be accounted for using risk factors. On the other hand, the impact of uncertainty and risk on support cost is best accounted for using a risk driven schedule. An estimate that takes into account uncertainty and risk events best communicates the probable cost of the project and its probable schedule.

  Helping Renewables Make Cent$

Mark Rudd
Rudd Asset Managmement LLC

When people think about renewables and green power generation, we think of wind and solar projects. Though wind and solar have led to a massive change in the way electricity is generated, that is not the whole story. There are a lot more options.

But, regardless of the generation technology, @RISK can make a good project better or expose a bad project before it ends unhappily. This presentation will go over a biomass project in a step by step review, with particular focus on how to use @RISK to assess variables, manage risk, and optimize the design for a better project.

The flexibility and options for using @RISK will be noted and the application of other Palisade products such as Precision Tree and Risk Optimizer will be explored.

  Analytical Tools and Methods Involving Risk for Policy Makers and for International Rural Development

John McKenzie
Innovastat

Although, analytical tools and methods involving uncertainty are routinely used in the corporate world, they have not been used -to any great extent - to help make optimal decisions for most policy makers or for practitioners of international rural development. John will discuss the problem of the non-adoption of these valuable tools and how the business as usual approach is inadequate. Different ways of framing, modeling, and analyzing policy decisions will be examined during the presentation. He will demonstrate an applied example of how policy decisions can be more realistic, on-target, and have a better chance of success through the use of Monte Carlo Simulation and Optimization using the DecisionTools Suite.

  Possible Unintended Consequence of Triangular Probability Distributions in Monte Carlo Methods

Dr. Mark Cronshaw
Resource Economics LLC

Triangular probability distributions are often used in Monte Carlo analyses. They are usually specified by three intuitive parameters: a most likely value, a minimum value and a maximum value. However, a high maximum value inevitably results in a high probability of an overrun. A triangular probability distribution is unable to represent a low chance of a high overrun. This article highlights this limiting feature of triangular probability distributions and describes an alternative non-parametric probability distribution that is easy to use and much more general. A cost estimation example demonstrates that the non-parametric approach can result in significantly different findings.

  Bayesian Updating Tool for Risk Analysis of Critical Projects with Palisade Custom Development

Robert C. Patev
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will discuss the custom development of a software program to assist with updating the Weibull parameters used in the risk analysis of critical infrastructure projects such as dams, locks and hydropower plants. The tool utilizes state of the art Bayesian techniques to provide a continuous updating of USACE National Weibull curves based on failure and survivor data coming from the Maximo FEM database. The presentation will show the Bayesian updating process to National Weibull curves and how this tool has been applied to bring the results down to the project and component specific Weibull curves.

  How to Use @RISK to Quantify Monetary Damages Associated with Water Main Breaks

Karl San Luis
Pure Technologies

Water operators and utilities often utilize risk assessment strategies to deliver the level of service required in supplying water. A big challenge that utilities deal with is managing the water mains, where on average there is more than 1 break recorded for every 10 miles of pipe annually. To assess which pipes to prioritize for replacement, repair or inspection, a qualitative approach is commonly performed. However, factor inputs are grouped into bins, which tend to contribute to a slimmer amount of variance. An element of subjectivity comes into play as well in the form of making the cut-offs and determining which factors will influence the risk scores.

This presentation will describe the use of @RISK in monetary quantification of the damages associated through a water main break as a means of assessing risk. The monetized results from @RISK leads to a continuous scale distribution which highlights the concept of uncertainty in risk analysis.

  NextGen Project Risk Management

Dr. Prasad S. Kodukula, PMP, PgMP
Kodukula & Associates, Inc.

Risk is inherent to projects. It influences every project outcome. Ignoring risk in project investment decisions can result in project failures. Poor risk management is a major cause for cost overruns and schedule slippages. Many organizations have recently adopted risk registers and qualitative methods to manage project risks. While these methods are a first step, a strong need exists for more sophisticated next generation tools involving quantitative analysis. Such tools enable more accurate cost and schedule estimation, foster better decision making, and facilitate a greater project success rate. In this presentation we will demonstrate “NextGen” project risk management by hands on application of @Risk software using a hypothetical project example based on real world scenarios commonly experienced in many industries. The focus will be on project costs. What you will learn includes:

  • Four types of risk you must consider in cost estimation
  • Application of simulations to analyze cost risks
  • Difference between probabilistic and deterministic methods for cost risk analysis
  • Four key probability distributions you must understand
  • A novel approach for estimation of cost contingencies
  • Two common reasons behind most cost overruns and what you can do about it

  Simulating the Economic Impact of Rice Disease in the United States

Dr. Lanier Nalley
University of Arkansas

A brief description of the presentation: Rice blast (Magnaporthe oryzae) is a key concern in combating global food insecurity given the disease is responsible for approximately 30% of rice production losses globally—the equivalent of feeding 60 million people. Rice is the staple crop for more than half the world’s population so any reduction in rice blast would have substantial beneficial effects on consumer livelihoods. In 2012, researchers in the US began analyzing the feasibility of creating blast-resistant rice through cisgenic breeding. Correspondingly, our study uses @RISK to evaluate the changes in producer, consumer, and environmental welfare; if all the rice produced in the Mid-South of the US were blast. Our results show that US rice producers would gain 69.34 million dollars annually and increase the rice supply to feed an additional one million consumers globally by eliminating blast from production in the Mid-South. Our findings suggest that any reduction in blast via breeding will have significantly positive impacts on reducing global food insecurity through increased supply, as well as decreased price and environmental impacts in production.

  The Decision Factory at Utilitarian University: processing applications in an admissions office

Dr. Carolyn Ford
The Univeristy of Western Ontario

Every year, universities around the world face the challenge of processing a high volume of admissions applications in a timely manner. Their admissions offices are in essence a factory, one whose output is decisions, but with a critical difference. Where a factory has some degree of control over the timing, quality and volume of inputs, an admissions office has far less control over the timing, quality and volume of applications received. The application process starts with a pool of prospective students then proceeds through the stages of application initiated, application complete, decision (admit, deny or waitlist), offer (accepted or rejected), and finally to matriculation for those accepting their offers.

In recent application cycles, Utilitarian University received a volume of applications so high that the Admissions Office was taking over a month to render decisions on files ready for evaluation. Respondents to an ‘offer declined’ survey noted they received offers from Utilitarian’s main competitor – Veritas University – two weeks prior to receiving the Utilitarian offer. In response to this trend and out of concern for the potential detrimental impact on future enrollment, the Provost of Utilitarian asked a professor in the Department of Statistics, Dr. Cue, to analyze the applications queue in the Admissions Office. The hope is that Dr. Cue’s recommendations for improvement would be implemented over the course of the summer so that next year the University would be ready to handle the volume of applications with fewer delays.

As Dr. Cue reviewed the current situation, it was immediately apparent that the complexity of the applications queue, with its peak period and lack of steady state, merits a variety of approaches: analytical calculation based on queue characteristics to explore boundaries and approximations (Allen-Cuneen, deterministic fluid queues) as well as simulation modelling with RISKOptimizer and @RISK.

What recommendations will Dr. Cue submit to the Provost to help the University’s ‘decision factory’ tame its unwieldy applications queue?

The Westgate Hotel

Our two-day User Conference will be in San Diego, CA on November 15-16.

The Westgate Hotel
1055 Second Avenue
San Diego, CA 92101

The Westgate Hotel offers the luxury of the world’s finest metropolitan hotels, and the best of Southern California! Located just minutes from the airport, the Westgate is also steps from the trolley/train station and is readily accessible by freeway. Within walking distance is the Museum of Contemporary Art, the Opera and the Symphony, Horton Plaza shops and Gaslamp Quarter energy.

Please follow the link or the number below to reserve your room:

- Reserve online here
- Call +1 619-557-3617

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