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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
September 14th - Denver Hilton Garden Inn
2017
2017




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

Sept 14th, 2017 • Denver

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive half day conference in Denver. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry.

Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. We’ll explore the features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modeling and analysis accessible and powerful.

This event is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals.

See also: September 15th Conference at the Denver Marriott Westminster.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company


“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


Networking Opportunities

Mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. All networking events on the schedule are included with your complimentary registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2017 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2017 include our 2-day, multi-track conference in Nashville in November, plus Chicago, London, São Paulo, Madrid, Beijing, and more.

Information about 2017 Conferences and Workshops

Schedule

Thursday 14 September 2017

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 8:30
Registration and Coffee
8:30 - 8:45
WELCOME REMARKS

Andrew Sich
Palisade Corporation

8:45 - 9:30
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Dr. José Raúl Castro Esparza
Palisade Corporation

9:30 - 10:15
CASE STUDY

Exit Cap Rate Risk: Underestimated and Ignored, but Still Very Real
Randy Zisler
Zisler Capital Associates

10:15 - 10:30
Networking Break with Refreshments
10:30 - 11:15
CASE STUDY

Modeling an Engineering Change Process
Andrew Sleeper
Successful Statistics

11:15 - 12:00
12:00 - 12:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Dr. José Raúl Castro Esparza
Palisade Corporation

12:45 - 1:00
Closing Remarks

Andrew Sich
Palisade Corporation

Presenters

  Dr. José Raúl Castro Esparza

Training Consultant
Palisade Corporation

José Raúl Castro Esparza is a consultant and a full time professor at BUAP (Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla) in Puebla, Mexico where he co-founded the career of Actuarial Sciences. He earned his bachelor’s degree as an Actuary from Universidad de las Américas, Puebla (UDLAP), an MBA at Universidad Iberoamericana (IBERO) and a Ph. D. in Finance from Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla (UPAEP). Dr. Castro’s experience accounts for over 10 years in the chemical industry, working in the areas of Financial and Logistics Planning for companies such as Ciba-Geigy, Novartis Crop Protection and Syngenta. In the academic field he has taught for over 20 years a variety of Risk Analysis and Computer Modelling courses at a graduate and undergraduate level.

  Andrew Sich

Regional Sales Manager
Palisade Corporation

 

  Andrew Sleeper

General Manager
Successful Statistics, LLC

Andrew Sleeper is a Six Sigma expert and General Manager of Successful Statistics, LLC. Since 1981 he has worked with product development teams as an engineer, statistician, project manager, Six Sigma Black Belt, and consultant. Mr. Sleeper is the author of two books, Design for Six Sigma Statistics and Six Sigma Distribution Modeling, both published by McGraw-Hill Professional Books. Mr. Sleeper holds degrees in electrical engineering and statistics, and is a licensed Professional Engineer. A senior member of the American Society for Quality, he is certified by ASQ as a Quality Manager, Reliability Engineer, and Quality Engineer. He provides customized Six Sigma and DFSS training and problem solving services to companies around the world.

  Dr. Francisco J. Zagmutt, DVM, MPVM, PhD

Managing Partner
EpiX Analytics

Francisco is a managing partner of EpiX Analytics LLC. He has a Masters from UC Davis, and a PhD from Colorado State University, where he is also an adjunct professor. Francisco has led simulation, risk modeling, optimization, and decision-analysis projects in a wide variety of industries on every continent. Examples of his consulting work include strategic forecasting and optimization of inventory under high uncertainty, modeling of catastrophic events, and risk modeling for government rulemaking. His experience working with a diverse clientele allows him and his team to use cutting edge methods to customize solutions to the specific client’s needs while also being able to effectively communicate the applicability and strategic value of the work with senior management.

  Randy Zisler

Principal
Zisler Capital Associates, LLC

Randy is the managing principal and co-founder of Zisler Capital Associates. Randy started his career as a faculty member at Princeton University, where he taught economics and real estate finance. He left the faculty of Princeton to join Jones Lang Wooten (JLW). As a partner at JLW, he helped launch the company’s pension money management advisory business (now ING Real Estate). As a director at Goldman Sachs, he established Wall Street’s first real estate research department where he developed many innovative applications of modern finance, including swaps, options, and modern portfolio theory, to the financing and management of real estate portfolios. Randy left Goldman to advise pension funds with regard to their troubled real estate portfolios, real estate strategy, their money managers, and workouts. As a managing director at Pension Consulting Alliance, he served many institutional investors, a sample of which included AT&T, IBM, GM, Digital Equipment Corporation, CALPERS, Government of Singapore, the U.S. Department of Labor, and CALSTRS.

Abstracts

  Exit Cap Rate Risk: Underestimated and Ignored, but Still Very Real

Randy Zisler
Zisler Capital Associates, LLC

Investors should not neglect exit cap rate risk. An investment with negligible tenant default risk can still present significant exit cap rate risk and this risk may not be obvious to the typical investor. Exit cap rate risk can be quite substantial especially if the holding period or targeted time of sale is rigid. The less flexible is the holding period, the greater is the danger that investors may be forced to accept a higher cap rate. Opportunistic and value-add investments are especially vulnerable since their targeted IRRs are sensitive to holding period. By contrast, core investors may be more flexible if selling conditions are less conducive. However, they too must contend with cap rate risk at the time of sale, whenever it occurs.

  Modeling an Engineering Change Process

Andrew Sleeper
Successful Statistics, LLC

An unnamed military contractor processes thousands of engineering changes every year. Many of these changes are delayed or stalled, while others create chaos when released into manufacturing. A team of consultants examined the process to look for opportunities to improve. Part of this work involved creating a simulation model of process, then using the model to try out potential improvements. The modeling provided insight into opportunities and risks of changes.

  What matters and what doesn't: Building pragmatic and robust simulation models with applications to oil and gas and beyond

Dr. Francisco J. Zagmutt
EpiX Analytics

George Box’s famous statement that ‘all models are wrong, but some are useful’ certainly applies to simulation modeling. In decision analysis, models must be insightful and correctly answer the decision question, which is typically affected by the complexity of the model, its data sources, and the methodological soundness of its structure.

Often, the analysts building stochastic models are also experts in the system being modeled. For example, oil and gas models are often built by reservoir engineers, and ecological models are built by ecologists. Therefore, the natural inclination of the modeler is to design very realistic models, but such detailed models have several drawbacks such as requiring abundant data (that are seldom available), being less tractable, and can be more prone to mistakes.

Similarly, many analysts are first exposed to stochastic modeling by converting deterministic models into stochastic ones, and during this process several mistakes are frequently made. Even the most seasoned analyst can make these mistakes, as some of them are not easily apparent when migrating to a stochastic modeling platform.

During this hands-on talk, we will use real-life examples to demonstrate some of the key principles to build sound simulation models, and we will provide a checklist for analysts to keep in mind while building their models.

Hilton Garden Inn

1400 Welton St
Denver, CO 80202
tel: (303) 603-8000
For more information, see the hotel website.

Palisade Corporation
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Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
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