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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
November 1-2, 2016 New Orleans
2016
2016




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

November 1-2, 2016 • New Orleans

Our Biggest Event of the Year – Palisade’s 2016 Risk Conference New Orleans

The 2016 Palisade Risk Conference in New Orleans brought together well over 100 decision-makers to discuss the latest trends and best practices in risk and decision analysis. The forum took place November 1-2 at the Hilton Riverside Hotel and Conference Center in New Orleans.

Sam McLafferty, President and CEO of Palisade, gave an overview of the latest developments in risk analysis software. VP Randy Heffernan followed with “The Future of Risk Management,” exploring new approaches to strategic risk. He explained how risk management is all about seeking opportunities, making nimble decisions, and incorporating risk management across multiple disciplines – not just disaster avoidance.

The well-received conference keynote was delivered by N. Ryan Smith of Ontario Power Generation. Smith described the cooperative effort with Palisade’s @RISK and Ontario Power Generation. He discusses developing and implementing an integrated cost and schedule model for a 10-year, multi-billion dollar megaproject from gathering and validation of inputs to progression and analysis of results using @RISK.

In addition, dozens of sessions were held across multiple conference tracks, including software training on @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite as well as real-world industry case studies. Case studies encompassed a wide range of applications, including an overview of Celsia Energy’s use of @RISK to reduce financial risk, tips and pointers to improve communication of concepts and solutions related to risk and reliability from CH2M Hill, credit portfolio loss modeling with @RISK at Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis, and many others.

Download presentations from the 2016 Conference

A Few Quotes from this Year's Attendees

“The conference is filled with interesting sessions, brilliant people, and great professional opportunities.”

Susan Parente, Principal, S3 Technologies

“Very worthwhile use of time.”

Eric Ho, Senior Risk Manager, Arcadis

“This conference was the perfect jump start to my learning experience.”

Vy Kieu, Engineer, Salt River Project

“An excellent mix of statistical knowledge, application, and focust on development.”

Dominic Abadie, Senior Risk Analyst, Whitney Bank

“Always a tough decision deciding which sessions to attend.”

Kevin Weaver, Consultant, First Energy Corp

Conference Tracks - Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer various ways to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Expert Sessions:

Sign up for a one-on-one session with a Palisade consultant to get advice on your particular model or risk modeling issue.

Networking – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. Lunches, breaks and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

Interested in Presenting?

Palisade is seeking submissions for the 2016 Risk Conference in New Orleans. If you have an interesting application of Palisade software which you would like to present, please send a short abstract to Austin Blank, at ablank@palisade.com. The closing date for abstracts to be submitted is July 31st, 2016.

Information for presenters

Join a Global Group

The 2016 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2016 include Houston, Chicago, Munich, Amsterdam, Edinburgh, Moscow, Abu Dhabi and Cape Town.

Information about 2016 Conferences


Register Now

Registration for this event has closed.

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Software Presentations      
  Industry Case Studies

Tuesday 1 November 2016 · New Orleans

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and coffee - Quarterdeck B
9:00 - 10:00
Chart A
Quarterdeck C
Quarterdeck A
10:10 - 11:00
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION
Chart A

Introduction to @RISK
Michelle Jackson
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck C

Stochastic End-Use Load Forecasting for Electric Utilities
David Robertson
Duke Energy

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck A

Project Portfolio Optimization Using RISKOptimizer
Dr. Prasad Kodukula, Yuchen Lu
Kodukula & Assoc

11:00 - 11:30
Break - Quarterdeck B
11:30 - 12:20
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION
Chart A

What's New in @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite 7
Sam McLafferty and Erik Westwig
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck C

Optimization of a Sales Territory using @RISK and Evolver
Sean Carranco
West Groupe

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck A

Taming the Real Estate Investment Beast!
Mark Rudd
Rudd Asset Management

12:20 - 1:20
Lunch - River Room
1:20 - 2:10
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION
Chart A

Selecting the Right Distribution for Use in @RISK
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck C

Modeling Business Strategies for a Colombian Utility Company Using @RISK
Maria Mercedes Aguilar, Laura Botero, Alejandro Uribe
Celsia Energy

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck A

Using @RISK to Quantify Portfolio Credit Risk
Brendan McGrath
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis

2:20 - 3:10
CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck A

Forecasting Portfolio Environmental Liabilities
Tim Havranek & Leigh Hostetter
Integral Consulting

3:10 - 3:40
Break - Quarterdeck B
3:40 - 4:30
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION
Chart A

Introduction to Project Risk Management with @RISK
Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck A

Strategic Forecasting with Risk Analysis for Novel Pharmaceuticals Using @RISK
Michael Kubica
Applied Quantitative Sciences Inc.

4:30
Welcome Reception - River Room

Wednesday 2 November 2016 · New Orleans

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee - Quarterdeck B
9:00 - 10:00
Keynote Chart BC

Quantifying Risk and Uncertainty for a MegaProject
N. Ryan Smith P.Eng.
Ontario Power Generation

Chart A
Quarterdeck C
Quarterdeck A
10:10 - 11:00
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION
Chart A

Introduction to the DecisionTools Suite
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck A

Using @RISK and BigPicture to Explore Manufacturing Business Expansion
Glen Justis
Acclaim Strategies

11:00 - 11:30
Break - Quarterdeck B
11:30 - 12:20
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION
Chart A

Decision Modeling with PrecisionTree and BigPicture
Erik Westwig
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck C

The Probability of Winning: Fact, Fantasy and Other Mysteries
Clay Graham
Advantage Analytics

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck A

Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
Roy Nersesian
Monmouth University

12:20 - 1:20
Lunch - Compass & Steering Rooms
1:20 - 2:10
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION
Chart A

Finding Optimal Solutions with RISKOptimizer and Evolver
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

SOFTWARE PRESENTATION
Quarterdeck C

Decision Strategies and Data Exploration with BigPicture
Michelle Jackson
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck A

Using @RISK to Estimate Costs When the Rules of Procurement Change
Palmer Boyle and Charles Berlin
CSG Government Solutions

2:20 - 3:10
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION
Chart A

Data Analysis and Prediction with StatTools and NeuralTools
Erik Westwig
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY
Quarterdeck C

Canceled due to unforeseen circumstances.
 
 

Presenters

  Maria Mercedes Aguilar

Energetic Market Specialist
Celsia Energy

Maria is a Mathematical Engineer (EAFIT University), Financial Engineering specialist and candidate for a Master in Engineering of Energetic Systems (National University of Colombia). She has been working for utility companies since 2011. Currently she works as an Energetic Market Specialist at Celsia, a subsidiary of Grupo Argos.

  Cornelius W. "Neil" Barnes

Founding Member
IEPM Group, LLC

Neil Barnes is a founding Member of IEPMG LLC and a Founding Member of Strong Rock Energy LLC both founded in 2014. Neil holds a BS in Geology from LSU in 1978 and an MBA from Millsaps College in 1989. Neil has worked for Texaco in New Orleans from 1978 -1982 and worked for ANR Production Company/Coastal Oil and Gas from 1982-1991. Neil was also an independent petroleum geologist from 1991- 1995 and from 1995-1997 he was in business development for Skytel. Prior to being a founding member of IEPMG and Strong Rock, Neil worked in 1997-2014 for Tellus Operating Group LLC as a geologist and exploration manager. Neil has research interests in investment decision processes in the upstream oil and gas industry.

  Charles Berlin

Consultant
CSG Government Solutions

Charles Berlin has worked in the field of human services for over 19 years, focusing on the areas of program evaluation and public finance. His current role involves using Palisade's @RISK to develop cost benefit analysis models for state governments engaging in enterprise-scale information technology procurements. He also supports organizational strategic planning consulting teams through the presentation of analytical procurement strategy models to executive level audiences. Charles obtained his Masters of Public Administration from Eastern Kentucky University.

  Laura Botero

Financial Analyst
Celsia Energy

Laura is a Business Negotiator with a Master in Finance Administration (EAFIT University). She has worked as a Treasury Analyst at Grupo Argos. Currently she works as a Financial Analyst for the Corporate Finance Department at Celsia, a subsidiary of Grupo Argos.

  Palmer Boyle

Principal Consultant
CSG Government Solutions

Palmer Boyle has applied data, analytics and risk management processes in the areas of Finance, Regulatory Compliance, and Information Technology for global financial institutions and state governments. At present, Palmer is utilizing Palisade's DecisionTools Suite to design predictive models that incorporate uncertainties and risks in the evaluation of strategic approaches to enterprise-scale organizational re-design, as well as information technology procurements for state governments. He also facilitates executive leadership in the qualitative review of procurement strategies and the quantification of results. Palmer obtained his MBA in Finance from Drake University.

  Sean Carranco, MBA, LEAN Six Sigma Green Belt

Territory Manager
Westgroupe

Sean is a CEO/owner (Carranco Lunettes Consulting), territory manager (Westgroupe), and a published author who is a versatile professional with over 15 plus years of executive operational, financial, marketing and retail experience, creating company guidelines and protocols to preside over the work environment. He is a highly motivated and results driven business executive who builds lasting connections while traveling the globe to construct substantial opportunities. Sean is a competitive and successful personality outfitted with effectual communication and negotiating skills.

Sean has a B.S from the University of Texas in Austin and a Executive M.B.A from the University of Texas at El Paso.

  Todd Clark

President
Value of Insight Consulting

Todd Clark, MBA is the President of Value of Insight Consulting. For over 20 years he has worked with leading drug and biotech companies, advising them on global issues regarding clinical trial design, lifecycle management, regulatory compliance, marketing strategy, and more. He is the author of numerous industry publications including PharmaHandbook: A Guide to the International Pharmaceutical Industry® and GenericHandbook: A Guide to the U.S. Drug Industry. Todd has been published in peer-reviewed journals, served as an expert witness in pharmaceutical industry litigation, and is frequently quoted in trade publications. He holds an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management and teaches courses in health policy, managerial-decision making, marketing, and spreadsheet modeling at the graduate and undergraduate level.

  Clayton Graham, MBA

Professor
DePaul University

Clay Graham is currently an adjunct Professor at DePaul University teaching courses in statistics, economics and business analytics. He’s a management consultant with Advantage Analytics, LLC specializing in analytical and graphic econometrics. He has a BS from Purdue and graduate degrees in Economics (MA) and Business (MBA - Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University). He was a NASA Scholar (National Aeronautical and Space Administration) during his PhD studies at Northwestern (concentration in advanced large scale computer modeling and mathematical simulation). Clay has functioned in various advisory capacities to Purdue and Northwestern Universities. Prior to his current undertakings, he was CEO of an upstart aerospace, laser mapping and engineering firm. He also owned and operated a metal finishing firm in the Chicago area. He has introduced effective statistical process control technology to many firms including: Motorola, Siemens and Ford.

Prior to running his own companies, Clay worked as management consultant with Deloitte & Touche and A.T.Kearney, lnc. Clay and his companies have been the subject of articles in Forbes, Business Week, Modern Metals, Industrial Finishing and Arthur Andersen's Small Business Forum. In addition, the methods incorporated in the management of his firms have been utilized in academic case studies in the United States and Western Europe. He was selected to speak on “The Management of Professional Advisors” before a joint session of the American Bar Association and American Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

He has served as an Advisor to the White House, Members of Congress in the areas of economics, environmental control and management strategy. More recently, he consults in the investment gaming industry and with Major League Baseball teams.

  Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP

Principal
Integral Consulting

Mr. Havranek is a Principal at Integral Consulting, Inc. and leader of the Strategic Business Services group. This group is dedicated to helping clients identify optimum environmental strategies and implementing those strategies as efficiently as possible. Tim has over 30 combined years of experience in strategic planning and project management for the environmental remediation and oil and gas production industries. He specializes in the application of multi-criteria decision analysis and probabilistic modeling for a wide range of environmental projects including remediation, restoration, decommissioning, sediment environmental restoration and alternative energy projects. He is a certified Project Management Professional (PMP) and author of the book Modern Project Management Techniques for the Environmental Remediation Industry.

  Randy Heffernan, MBA

Vice President
Palisade Corporation

Randy Heffernan started with Palisade in 1997, and helped the company expand with its first overseas office in Plymouth, England, in 1998. Further geographic expansions included London in 2002 and Sydney, Australia in 2005. He has held a variety of roles in sales, marketing, and management, and currently oversees much of the corporate operations. Randy works closely with the sales staff to understand client needs and liaise with software development. Randy holds a BS degree in Business Management and Marketing, and an MBA, both from Cornell University.

  Fernando Hernández

Senior Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Fernando Hernández' areas of expertise are banking, finance, manufacturing, project evaluation, market forecasting and pricing. Fernando currently owns and operates InfoMasters, a company geared towards training, consulting and developing financial applications and decision making models for financial and manufacturing companies, using Microsoft Office and Palisade software. He has developed and taught courses including Intro to Corporate Finance, and Financial Simulation and Investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has created financial models, risk analyses and feasibility studies using @RISK. Fernando earned his licentiate degree in Finance Administration from the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar, he completed his MBA at Indiana University majoring in Finance & MIS.

  Leigh Hostetter

Senior Managing Scientist
Integral Consulting

Ms. Hostetter is a Senior Managing Scientist in the Strategic Business Services group at Integral Consulting, Inc., with over 14 years of experience in management consulting and project management consulting, working with both public and private clients on industrial, infrastructure and environmental projects. Leigh specializes in probabilistic modeling and earned value management with the goal of improving client decision making and project planning processes. Ms. Hostetter has a background in economics and environmental studies and worked in the financial industry prior to becoming a consultant. Leigh is a certified Project Management Professional (PMP), is certified by Microsoft for Managing Projects in MS Project, and has presented findings from her work in numerous academic papers and conferences.

  Michelle Jackson

@RISK Product Manager
Palisade Corporation

Michelle Jackson began her career with Palisade 10 years ago when she joined Palisade’s Marketing Department. Within the last few years she has shifted her focus to Palisade end users ­- initially with BigPicture ­- and now with @RISK. She is a liaison between the developers, sales managers, trainers and users of @RISK and BigPicture. She also helps with providing consistent webinars to help share the many features @RISK has to offer. Michelle received a Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematical Computing with a primary focus in Statistics from Plymouth State University. She also holds a double minor in Computer Programming and Biology.

  P. Glen Justis

Founder/CEO
Acclaim Strategies, LLC

Glen Justis founded Acclaim Strategies in 2011, and has over thirty years of combined consulting and industry experience. He works across multiple industries, with particular focus on government, infrastructure, utilities, manufacturing, and other capital-intensive organizations.

Prior to founding Acclaim Strategies, Mr. Justis served as a Director in the Governance, Risk, and Regulatory Strategies practice of Deloitte & Touche LLP. His work at Deloitte focused on capital investment decisions, business intelligence, risk management strategy and analytics, and corporate development. Prior to Deloitte, Mr. Justis was a partner at R. W. Beck Inc., leading multiple practice areas connected with energy markets, capital investment analysis, and risk management.

Mr. Justis has conducted and overseen projects for over one hundred individual client organizations, encompassing private, publicly-traded, governmental, not-for-profit, and cooperative entities. His business analytics work is frequently integrated with strategic advisory services in collaboration with Experience on Demand, a Chesterfield Missouri-based consulting firm.

Mr. Justis has an MBA with honors and Bachelor of Science in Nuclear Engineering degrees. He has also completed executive education at The University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and the American Association of Collegiate Schools of Business Bridge Program.

  Dr. Prasad S. Kodukula

CEO and Co-Founder
Kodukula & Associates, Inc. and Neochloris, Inc.

Dr. Prasad S. Kodukula, PMP, PgMP, is a speaker, coach, author, and inventor with more than 30 years of professional experience. Prasad has spoken in 40 countries, and his clients include 40 Fortune 100 companies (e.g., Abbott, Chrysler, Dow, Kraft Foods, IBM, JPMorgan Chase, Motorola, Stryker, United Technologies). He is co-founder and CEO of two companies: Kodukula & Associates, Inc. (www.kodukula.com), a project management speaking and coaching company; and Neochloris, Inc. (www.neochloris.com), a clean tech startup. Prasad holds degrees from the Illinois Institute of Technology, Cornell University, and Rutgers University. He is adjunct faculty at the University of Chicago and Illinois Institute of Technology. He was recognized by the Project Management Institute as "Best of the Best in project management" with 2010 PMI Distinguished Contribution Award. He aslo received prestigious awards from the USEPA and the States of Kansas and Illinois for outstanding achievements in education, training, and technology innovation. Prasad is a co-author or contributing author of seven books and more than 40 articles. His latest (2014) book is Organizational Project Portfolio Management: A Practioner's Guide.

  Michael A. Kubica

President
Applied Quantitative Sciences, Inc.

Michael Kubica has provided consultation in long term forecasting for major life science and consumer goods companies since 1999. He is a recognized expert in forecasting and predictive modeling. Michael has extensive experience in building forecast models for evaluating licensing & acquisition opportunities, strategic planning and supply chain optimization. He holds a MBA with specialization in healthcare finance and economics, and a MS degree in psychology both from Nova Southeastern University.

  Yuchen Lu

Research Analyst
Kodukula & Associates, Inc.

Yuchen Lu is a second-year graduate student at Illinois Institute of Technology’s Stuart School of Business majoring in Mathematical Finance. Her undergraduate degree is in Applied Mathematics from Hunan University. She is currently working part time as a Research Analyst at Kodukula & Associates, Inc. Her intern experience includes Bank of China and Weichai Power Company. Her research interest is in quantitative finance and risk control.

  Brendan McGrath, CFA, CPA

Vice President, Director of Credit Risk Analysis
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis

Brendan McGrath is a Vice President, Director of Credit Risk Analysis in the Enterprise Risk Management department at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis, one of 11 U.S. government sponsored entities that support housing finance by providing liquidity to its member financial institutions. He joined FHLBI's investments team in 2000 and has experience in trading, fixed income portfolio management, mortgage analytics, risk management, and credit and market risk modeling. Mr. McGrath earned a CFA charter and a CPA license and for six years sat on the Board of Directors for the CFA Society of Indianapolis, including serving as its President from 2009-2010. Mr. McGrath earned a BS in Finance and an MS in Accounting from Indiana University's Kelley School of Business and is also a member of the Beta Gamma Sigma honor society.

  Sam McLafferty

President and CEO
Palisade Corporation

Sam McLafferty is Palisade's founder, president, and CEO. He started the company in 1984 with the release of PRISM, a stand-alone Monte Carlo simulation package for DOS on the PC. PRISM later evolved into @RISK for Lotus 1-2-3, and then for Excel. Sam is Palisade's lead developer, with over thirty years of programming experience. He works closely with the technical and sales staff, ensuring that customer feedback is heard. He personally oversees the development and evolution of every one of the fifteen software products Palisade sells. Prior to Palisade, he was a risk analysis consultant.

  Roy Nersesian

Professor
Leon Hess Business School at Monmouth University

Roy Nersesian is a professor at the Leon Hess Business School at Monmouth University in New Jersey. He is the author of Energy Risk Modeling published by Palisade Corporation. This book is an outgrowth of his teaching energy modeling at Columbia University. He is also the author of Energy Economics recently published by Routledge.

  David Robertson

Enterprise Risk Management
Duke Energy

David Robertson has over 18 years of experience in regulated utilities, manufacturing, public accounting and financial accounting. He specializes in drawing upon many disciplines to find creative solutions to complex problems. At Duke Energy, David is responsible for the completion of the Enterprise Risk Assessment, an annual presentation to the Board of Directors that outlines the top risks to the company, and the development of the company's risk registers. David has a background in economics and engineering. He is a licensed Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and holds a Master's of Business Administration (MBA) from Wayne State University

  Mark Rudd

President
Rudd Asset Management

Mark Rudd is President and Founder of Rudd Asset Management (RAM). Based on a strong technical background, RAM applies proven risk management techniques to a variety of assets. In addition to energy project consulting and development, RAM provides risk management analysis for investments, and financial projects. Drawing upon an MBA from the University of Chicago and over 12 years as a commercial realtor, Mark Rudd is experienced in doing real estate project analysis and financial modeling.

  N. Ryan Smith, P.Eng

Manager - Project Risk Management
Ontario Power Generation

Ryan Smith is a Professional Engineer with 15 years of project management experience in a diverse set of roles for both contractor and owner organizations. Ryan's project management interests revolve around the strategic and intangible aspects of the project work, including organizational effectiveness, leadership, and risk and decision management. Most recently, Ryan was assigned to establish and implement from the ground up an industry leading project risk management program for the Nuclear Projects organization at Ontario Power Generation and develop the life cycle contingency estimate for the 10 year $12.8 billion refurbishment of four nuclear units on the shores of Lake Ontario.

  JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP

Vice President
CH2M

JD Solomon is the Vice President with CH2M and serves as a senior consultant focusing on risk, reliability, and strategic decision making. Some of his areas of practice include infrastructure health and prognostics, financial management, operations and maintenance (O&M) optimization, and master planning. He is a Certified Reliability Engineer (CRE), Certified Maintenance and Reliability Professional (CMRP), is certified in Lean Management, and is a Six Sigma Black Belt. JD has a Professional Certificate in Strategic Decision and Risk Management from Stanford, an MBA from the University of South Carolina, and a BS Civil Engineering from NC State.

  Alejandro Uribe

Wholesale Market Planning Leader
Celsia Energy

Alejandro is a Mechanical Engineer with a Master in Systems Engineering (National University of Colombia). He has worked in the electricity sector since 2001. He has worked for the Electricity Market Administrator (XM), and for several utility companies in Colombia. Currently he works as Wholesale Market Planning Leader at Celsia, a subsidiary of Grupo Argos.

  Gustavo Vinueza

Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Gustavo Vinueza is a Systems Engineer from University in Cuenca, Ecuador. He also earned an MBA from Torcuato Di Tella University in Argentina and a MS in Finance from Adolfo Ibáñez University in Chile. His main topics of interest include financial and operational modeling, including scientific and academic research into business practice as well as data mining relative matters. He has 16 years of experience and he’s been a consultant for companies in several industries: finance & banking, telecommunications, insurance and IT related services.

His experience includes managing project portfolios both operational and IT related, cost reduction programs, public purchases bidding, operational controls, capacity analysis and audit processes and software development projects, besides technological infrastructure implementation. He has also earned diplomas in Project Management, Usability, Business Process Management and Business Analytics.

  Erik Westwig

Software Engineer
Palisade Corporation

Erik Westwig received his BS in 1991 and MS in 1994 from the School of Applied and Engineering Physics at Cornell University. In 1998 he published the book Mathematical Physics with co-author Bruce Kusse, which was re-released in its second edition in 2006. Since 1995, Erik has worked as a software engineer at Palisade as part of the DecisionTools Suite development team.

  Francisco J. Zagmutt, DVM, MPVM, PhD

Managing Partner
EpiX Analytics

Francisco is a managing partner of EpiX Analytics LLC. He has a Masters from UC Davis, and a PhD in epidemiological modeling from Colorado State University. Francisco has led simulation, risk modeling, optimization, and decision-analysis projects in a wide variety of industries on every continent. Examples of his consulting work include strategic forecasting and optimization of inventory under high uncertainty, modeling of catastrophic events, and risk modeling for government rulemaking. His experience working with a diverse clientele allows him and his team to use cutting edge methods to customize solutions to the specific client's needs while also being able to effectively communicate the applicability and strategic value of the work with senior management.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in New Orleans
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

Plenary Sessions

  Welcome: Palisade Overview, and The Future of Risk Management

Sam McLafferty, Randy Heffernan
Palisade Corporation

Palisade President Sam McLafferty reviews goals of this year’s conference and ways you can benefit from the event before giving some context and background about Palisade as a company. Then, Sam will touch on some of latest innovations in the latest releases of @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software, and will explain the added insights these tools bring to risk and decision analysis. More in-depth exploration of @RISK and DecisionTools Suite can be found in the Software Presentation track.

Following Sam's overview, Palisade Vice President Randy Heffernan will present "The Future of Risk Management."

Recent coverage in Harvard Business Review and Risk & Insurance has focused on how organizations are rethinking risk management. Risk management has traditionally focused most of its time on legal, compliance, and financial reporting functions. That’s starting to change as companies realize the importance of other factors, such as strategic risks, risks that span multiple disciplines, and the opportunities that can be uncovered. Clearly, the future of risk goes far beyond disaster-avoidance.

Randy will share Palisade’s unique perspective on this trend, including some examples of clients leading this transformation.

  Quantifying Risk and Uncertainty for a MegaProject

N. Ryan Smith P.Eng.
Ontario Power Generation

» Download the presentation

One of the most challenging aspects of any project is defining and quantifying the impact of risk and uncertainty over the project's life cycle. It is impossible to know for certain what the future will bring on any project, even with experienced teams doing familiar work in controlled environments. Add to this basic conundrum a megaproject with many first of a kind aspects and a 10 year multibillion dollar scale, and the ability to develp a defensible and informed contingency estimate becomes even more daunting. How can you be sure you have a strong integrated and informed contingency estimate, representative of the plausible outcomes of the project, that passes a prudence check, and gives the project management team the funds they need to deal with issues that arise?

An overview of the development and implementation of an integrated cost and schedule megaproject model co-developed between Palisade's @RISK and OPG will be presented, from gathering and validation of inputs to progression and analysis of results using @RISK.

Software Presentations

  Introduction to @RISK

Michelle Jackson
Palisade Corporation

This introduction to @RISK will walk you through a risk analysis using various example models. Key features of @RISK will be highlighted. You will experience the intuitive interface of @RISK as you define distributions, correlations, and other model components. During simulation you will be able to see all charts, thumbnails, and reports update in real time. View results with a variety of graphing and reporting options. There’s so much to see, we’ll cover as much as time permits.

  Introduction to the DecisionTools Suite

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

This session will show you how to use the elements of the DecisionTools Suite as a comprehensive risk analysis, decision-making, and statistical analysis toolkit. Each of the products in the Suite — @RISK, BigPicture, RISKOptimizer, Evolver, PrecisionTree, TopRank, StatTools, and NeuralTools — will be presented as time allows, showing how they can be used to solve practical problems in the real world. Pick up hints and tips for using the products together. We’ll also point out interface improvements along the way that can save time and enhance ease-of-use.

  Selecting the Right Distribution for Use in @RISK

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

This session covers choosing the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. The use of distributions to treat a variety of risk modeling situations is discussed, and some more advanced features such as bootstrapping, batch fitting, and the live fit function will be covered as time permits.

  Exploring Custom Solutions using Palisade Software: Examples from Finance, Manufacturing, Project Management, and More

Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Custom Development has written dozens of different types of specialized applications using the functionality of @RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank, and other DecisionTools products. These applications run the gamut of industry sectors and are specifically designed to accomplish just what the client needs. In this way, Palisade custom-designed applications simplify the rollout of powerful decision-making analytics within organizations by reducing learning curves and removing any potentially confusing options for users. Interfaces, model logic, and reports can all be tailored to the client's exact specifications, driven by powerful Palisade analytics "under the hood."

Most Palisade custom solutions run directly in Excel, using VBA and the Excel Developer Kit (or XDK) feature of the DecisionTools Suite programs. Some are built using the @RISK Developer Kit (RDK), a programming toolkit that runs outside the Excel platform and can be used on a web server. This session will highlight a number of interesting examples of different types of custom applications we've done. They include cost estimation, risk registers, asset management, retirement planning, oil and gas prospecting, and more.

  What's New in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite 7

Sam McLafferty
Erik Westwig
Palisade Corporation

See a demonstration of key new features in version 7 and 7.5. New features include efficient frontiers, copulas, and graphical model sharing in @RISK. Additional distribution functions have also been added, as well as enhanced tornado graph types. StatTools features many new graphs, including dendrograms as part of the Cluster Analysis report, score plots in the Principal Component Analysis report, and categorical bar charts. And it adds an entirely new Excel add-in: BigPicture, for mind-mapping and data exploration, which integrates directly with PrecisionTree.

  Decision Modeling with PrecisionTree and BigPicture

Erik Westwig
Palisade Corporation

PrecisionTree is a powerful visual and analytical tool for mapping out complex, sequential decisions using decision trees directly in Excel. Using nodes, branches, and probabilities, you can represent and organize decisions ranging from oil prospecting to site development to options analysis. This presentation combines an introduction to the PrecisionTree interface with demonstrations of how PrecisionTree can be used to analyze various problems in decision analysis. It also includes a brief introduction to the new BigPicture add-in, showing how PrecisionTree models can be viewed using BigPicture’s sophisticated presentation quality interface.

  Introduction to Project Risk Management with @RISK

Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

The aim of this seminar is to provide a basic understanding of how @RISK can help you manage uncertainty in your Microsoft Project schedules. Using Monte Carlo simulation, you will learn how to account for schedule and costs risks in a quick and comprehensive way. At last, here is a way to answer the question “What is the probability that my project will come in on time and within budget?” With @RISK, risk modeling of your Project schedules is much more flexible and powerful than ever before.

We will show you how to set up and run simulations, and how to interpret the results. You will learn how to use @RISK step by step, and become familiar with basic concepts and terminology. We’ll demonstrate powerful graphing and reporting that pinpoints where your risks lie and what their impact may be.

You will see how using @RISK for your projects enables you to:

  • Calculate the probability of success
  • Graph the margin of error around the most likely outcome
  • Quantify and prioritize the risk drivers
  • Quantify the amount ‘@RISK’

  Finding Optimal Solutions with RISKOptimizer and Evolver

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

RISKOptimizer and Evolver use powerful algorithms to perform optimization in Microsoft Excel. RISKOptimizer – an advanced analytical tool that comes with @RISK Industrial – builds on traditional optimization by adding Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertain (stochastic), uncontrollable factors in your optimization problem. RISKOptimizer and Evolver employ genetic algorithms to arrive at solutions to nonlinear problems that are impossible to find using traditional methods, and they also offer different methods for quickly solving other types of problems.

This session introduces you to these powerful tools, showing you how to set up a model, define constraints within the model, and ultimately arrive at the optimal outcome. These steps will be illustrated by means of a detailed retirement portfolio optimization example.

  Decision Strategies and Data Exploration with BigPicture

Michelle Jackson
Palisade Corporation

BigPicture takes advantage of the fact that humans are visual animals - we tend to grasp relationships and understand data better when they are presented in a diagram or map. This session will cover some of the basics of BigPicture and how it can be used for brainstorming, strategic planning, human resources analysis and data exploration. Learn how BigPicture can be incorporated into your everyday decision making processes and how it is a valuable complement to Palisade’s other DecisionTools Suite programs.

  Data Analysis and Prediction with StatTools and NeuralTools

Erik Westwig
Palisade Corporation

In this session you will learn how to use Palisade’s two data analysis tools: StatTools and NeuralTools.

StatTools is a Microsoft Excel statistics add-in. This session will cover how to perform the most common statistical tests, and will include topics such as: Statistical Inference, Forecasting, Data Management, Summary Analyses, and Regression Analysis.

NeuralTools imitates brain functions in order to “learn” the structure of your data. Once NeuralTools understands the data, it can take new inputs and make intelligent predictions. The new predictions are based on the patterns in known data, and offer uncanny accuracy. NeuralTools can automatically update predictions when input data changes, and it can even be combined with Palisade’s Evolver or Excel’s Solver to optimize tough decisions and achieve desired goals. This session uses easy-to-understand examples to demonstrate applications of NeuralTools predictions. We will also touch upon some of the exciting new procedures in StatTools version 7.

Case Studies

  Stochastic End-Use Load Forecasting for Electric Utilities

David Roberston
Duke Energy

» Download the presentation

Accurate models for electricity sales are critical to the planning and operations of a regulated utility - especially when multi-billion dollar decisions will have impacts on the economic viability of a region for decades. In the past, load forecasting was fairly straightforward: a continuation of past trends, population growth and housing expansion. New technology, evolving demographic preferences and highly unpredictable weather patterns have obscured the clarity of the old modeling techniques.

This session will talk about how risk management used stochastic techniques in @RISK and StatTools to challenge the status quo on the load forecast. Several approaches included in this discussion are:

  • Modified Delphi methods for the prediction of a recession
  • Fitting sample distributions for weather variables
  • Linear time-series regression with sampled error terms
  • PERT distribution end-use appliance efficiencies

  Project Portfolio Optimization Using RISKOptimizer

Dr. Prasad S. Kodukula
Yuchen Lu
Kodukula & Associates, Inc.

» Download the presentation

This presentation walks you through the major steps involved in applying RISKOptimizer for project portfolio analysis. Using a hypothetical portfolio, we will demonstrate the application of the tool. First we will quickly set up the portfolio model on an Excel spreadsheet with inputs including project costs, NPVs, distribution data, and the portfolio constraints mentioned earlier. Then we will show how to formulate the constraints for the optimization part of the tool followed by simulations. Finally, we will compare and discuss the RISKOptimizer results with those obtained from the other aforementioned project selection methods to underscore why optimization combined with probabilistic analysis is a preferred approach.

  Using @RISK to Find Optimal Prices for Hospital Capital Equipment across Multiple Countries and Market Segments

Todd Clark
Value of Insight Consulting

» Download the presentation

Identifying an optimal price is always challenging and complexity is greatly compounded when there are many different customer segments, each having its own value proposition and price sensitivity.

Recently, VOI Consulting was engaged to identify an optimal price for a new hospital technology. The project covered seven countries with substantial differences in financing, management, and capital purchasing mechanisms. Hospitals within these countries are further distinguished by differences in size, clinical practice, and other factors.

After extensive market research, VOI developed quantitative models expressing willingness to pay as a function of the trade-off between cost and customer value. These models were an excellent foundation and proved useful in other aspects of marketing but they did not yet provide optimal prices across multiple countries and hospital types.

To meet this objective, VOI employed @RISK for both probabilistic simulation and iterative optimization. The probabilistic component involved analysis of uncertain variables such as hospital demand and patient volume. The iterative component involved testing potential prices with outputs for revenues, market share, and profitability. Iterations were also run using a single price across all seven countries and with variable pricing for each country.

In this presentation, VOI Consulting describes the problem, the modeling approach, and the @RISK-generated results supporting a value-based pricing strategy that is currently being employed by our client.

  Optimization of a Sales Territory using @RISK and Evolver

Sean Carranco
West Groupe

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Knowing how to run a territory is a science and an art form. You can sell for a number of years but still not know how to sell effectively and efficiently. Westgroupe (Fysh, Kliik, Evatik, and Superflex) eyewear is a multi-million dollar operation whose main focus is to sell to the independent eye doctors. There are various choices within Westgroupe that these independent practices have available to them! The problem that Westgroupe has is they are not maximizing their products potential within the marketplace. Leaving money on the table that could be seized by Westgroupe if they just holistically optimized their outside sales representatives and their approach to their products.

How do you increase sales using the least amount of capital while garnering the most margin has been a question that firms have dealt with throughout millennia? Sales of any type of goods/services have been what most societies have based their prosperity. What I am going to show you is a Value Added and efficient way to solve Westgroupe's lack of maximizing profits holistically. I am first using a Value Added Driver (VAD) formula I created that will increase sales from those underperforming/underdeveloped accounts. I will then show you a model (Using RISK and Evolver) I have established by pairing non-parametric data points to bring efficient yield to your firm. Next I created a model called Fluid Merchandise Yield (FMY) that maximizes firm margin while minimizing product compliancy. Lastly I will use forecasting analysis (RISK Time Series) to show how all these impressions will help increase your margins and better monetize our outlays over time.

  Taming the Real Estate Beast!

Mark Rudd
Rudd Asset Management

» Download the presentation and model

Buy land. They ain't making any more of the stuff. - Will Rogers

Was Will right? How do we tame real estate investment cycles? How can we prevent effects like the 2008 housing "bubble" from wiping us out? @RISK may help!

Investments have cycles. Investments have cycles, as well as unforeseen, abrupt shocks. Here are some recent market "shocks" that had profound effects:

  • Interest rates (at historic lows)
  • Political upheaval (Brexit)
  • Catastrophe (Fukushima)
  • Oil Prices (at historic lows)

None were "expected", but how do you choose your real estate investments to better withstand these events? What do the "big boys" do?

Real Estate can be a great wealth builder but old assumptions like "...real estate can never go down, only go up..." have been dashed forever! Smart investors know that variables exist, and that variables have consequences. Luckily, risk can be managed.

  Why Don't They Understand? Communicating Risk and Reliability to Decision Makers

JD Solomon
CH2M

Communication of concepts and solutions related to risk and reliability is frequently cited by technical professionals as the most challenging and overlooked aspects of their work. Texts and guidance documents frequently reference the importance of better communication and education; however, there are few practical examples and limited practical guidance provided. This presentation will provide tips, pointers, and lessons learned to help the practitioner bridge these gaps. The use of the Palisade DecisionTools Suite will also be highlighted. The presentation will be provided from the perspective of an individual who dually serves on decision making bodies as well as who also provides risk and reliability information to decision makers.

  Modeling business strategies for a Colombian utility company using @RISK Industrial Suite

Maria Mercedes Aguilar
Laura Botero
Alejandro Uribe
Celsia Energy

» Download the presentation

In 2015, Colombia experienced the most difficult years in the electricity sector since the market was deregulated in 1995, when its inflows and reservoirs were impacted by one of the strongest El Niño events ever registered, domestic natural gas reserves declined and heat waves increased electricity demand.

In this complex environment, new business strategies were considered for a utility company which might reduce its financial risk. However, investment were limited and capital allocation was required to assess.

Through an ensemble of a genetic algorithm model for long term spot prices forecasts, a financial model and @RISK tools for simulations and optimization, a study was presented the corporate board of directors which included a broad ROIC / Risk map, with each individual investment alternative (business opportunity) or combination of them were assessed for the upcoming 10 years.

This coupled model has also been use to define the efficient frontier for long term contracts / spot exposure position, through the optimization tool of @RISK.

In this paper, we develop how the main individual variables were evaluated, modelled and correlated allowing the coupled model to establish the performance (distribution) of the financial indicators, and how the new features of version 7.5 improved the performance of the model.

An overview of the development and implementation of an integrated cost and schedule megaproject model co-developed between Palisade's @RISK and OPG will be presented, from gathering and validation of inputs to progression and analysis of results using @RISK.

  Using @RISK to Quantify Porfolio Credit Risk

Brendan McGrath
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis

» Download the presentation

Mr. McGrath will discuss how, with a limited budget and limited staff, Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis' Enterprise Risk Management team created a robust credit portfolio loss model using @RISK. He will walk through some common credit modeling methodologies, including the Merton Distance-to-Default model, as well as a portfolio-level credit model that uses @RISK to generate loss distributions and Value-at-Risk metrics. Topics discussed will include individual borrower default modeling, modeling the joint probability of default, correlation impacts and assumptions, portfolio modeling, and random sampling vs. time series approaches. While the topics are relevant to credit managers, the modeling approaches have applications across a variety of disciplines and industries.

  A More Robust View of an Uncertain Future - Creating and Adopting an Improved Methodology

Cornelius W. "Neil" Barnes
IEPM Group

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Performance of oil and gas wells in the future is uncertain. In a prior presentation a methodology was presented which used distributions of production and decline rates to simulate a range of possible investment outcomes thereby yielding a more robust view of an uncertain future. This representation of an uncertain future is superior to a single value representation of the uncertain future. However, even convinced of this truth, there are substantial challenges to utilizing this improved methodology, two of which are the focus of this presentation.

Two "ease of use" horizons exist – ease of creating and ease of utilizing the results. Ease of creating refers to creating the basic distributions of outcomes and creating a realistic model from which the distribution of outcomes is derived. Within common industry workflows most of the content for creating the distributions are in place. What is not in the common workflow is constructing the model. The model governs costs, risks, and timing. This information is available but seldom related to a range of future well performance.

The bigger ease of use challenge is in utilizing the results – i.e., adoption of the new workflow. Having a better mouse trap is of limited value if no one chooses to use it! Two key hurdles for adoption are offering meaningful content and demonstrating its significant and relevant value to decision makers. Change is often not easy; often costly; and often not welcome. For improved processes to be adopted the value delivered must be substantial, meaningful, and well communicated.

This presentation, while focusing on the upstream oil and gas decision making, is relevant for any industry in need of replacing ineffective, single value representations of an uncertain future with a more robust and more complicated but realistic representation of an uncertain future by using @RISK.

  Strategic Forecasting with Risk Analysis for Novel Pharmaceuticals Using @RISK

Michael J. Kubica
Applied Quantitative Sciences Inc.

» Download the presentation

Forecasting is central to the planning process for any business. This is particularly true in the pharmaceutical industry. Whether it be a small molecule pharmaceutical or a genetically engineered biological agent, the development cost and risk are great. The decision to invest, or continue to invest in a drug in development is largely influenced by the amount of belief that the product will achieve a level of commercial success sufficient to realize a meaningful profit. C-suite leaders have little tolerance for complexity, often times resorting to "base-upside-downside" case analyses to drive decision-making. While this method has its merits, it lacks the guidance to provide the likelihood of achieving those outcomes. It also lacks consistency from one project to the next, or even between different individuals for the same project, regarding the definitions of the base, upside and downside case.

Applied Quantitative Sciences, Inc. (AQS) has developed methodologies and mathematical libraries to construct robust strategic forecasts. While they provide customers with traditional base case, upside and downside scenarios, they use @RISK to build a risk analysis around these scenarios and provide a comprehensive decision support tool regardless of the development phase for novel life science products. In this presentation, Michael will provide an overview of the AQS forecasting process and demonstrate using a live pharmaceutical forecast model how the scenario and risk analysis results are presented in a fashion that provides clear direction in a simple framework suitable for communicating with C-suite leadership.

  Forecasting Portfolio Environmental Liabilities

Timothy J. Havranek
Leigh Hostetter
Integral Consulting

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Corporate environmental departments responsible for managing remediation projects are faced not only with the technical challenges posed by these projects but also managerial challenges of forecasting future expenditures, estimating human resource needs and demonstrating the value of their work to the corporation. These management challenges cannot be met by using only Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) compliant environmental reserve estimates as benchmarks. This is because proper application of the GAAP standards does not produce estimates that encompass the potential total lifecycle for all environmental projects.

This case study presentation describes a robust financial model developed to help an Energy Company, forecast lifecycle costs for a portfolio of gas station and terminal sites. The model captures uncertainty around the number of new sites entering the portfolio due to future mergers and acquisitions, uncertain remediation durations and costs, potential changes in regulations, and other risks potentially impacting expenditures. The model also included the potential for modified paths through the project life-cycle, based on historical trends (e.g. projects can skip lifecycle phases, recycle back through previous phases, and transfer out of the portfolio before completing a full lifecycle).

The model draws on historical data and captures a variety of parameters to produce a portfolio forecast over a 100 year economic horizon. The results help senior management to understand, anticipate, and effectively communicate the entirety of their environmental liability to their operating companies and other key stakeholders, as well as predict annual spending and anticipate resource needs.

The model's structure will be described and presented along with example outputs. Best practices for gathering data and including a risk register to address uncertain future events that have portfolio-wide impacts will be described. This case study is based on a recently performed project but details have been significantly modified to protect client confidentiality. We believe that the approach employed for this project has applications beyond environmental remediation and will apply to many other types of portfolios.

  Using @RISK and BigPicture to Explore Manufacturing Business Expansion

Glen Justis
Acclaim Strategies, LLC.

The subject company is a US based plastics and silicon molding business that continues to experience growth. The company is nearing capacity at its existing facilities, and is considering a number of expansion alternatives, all of which involve multiple uncertainties. This presentation covers how the company used @RISK analysis combined with BigPicture to explore, evaluate, and communicate the expected performance and risk of its top options.

  Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage

Roy Nersesian
Leon Hess Business School at Monmouth University

» Download the presentation

Building on Nersesian's mini-case material available for download at http://go.palisade.com/WC2016-04NersesianReNew.html, the presentation will focus on actions a utility can take to reduce the capacity and investment in a gravity battery to translate unreliable solar and wind to a reliable supply. The unique features of @RISK, Evolver, and RISKOptimizer software were tapped to analyze the various facets of uncertainty in both supply and demand for electricity that challenge utility managers.

» Download the white paper for this presentation here.

  How to model what we don't (exactly) know: real-world examples of modeling parameter and model uncertainty with @RISK

Dr. Francisco J. Zagmutt
EpiX Analytics

» Download the presentation

Contractor A has delivered all three projects on time. Is contractor A's on-time delivery rate better than contractor B that wasn't on time once in ten projects delivered? (Answer: No, B's rate is better).

If drilling a well in a new area with limited data and an average initial production (IP) of 870 BOPD, what are the chances that the IP of a new oil well in the area will exceed 1,000 BPD? (Answer: I wouldn't be writing this if I knew for sure). And what decline analysis model should I use to project the well's future production? (Hint: Relying on a single model can be risky).

The questions above are simplified representations of how uncertainty in estimates and model choice can affect a decision. Uncertainty modeling deals with variables or models that are not fully known. Correctly modeling uncertainty and distinguishing it from randomness can help identify key risk drivers and how those drivers can impact a decision.

In this talk, an introduction to the principles of uncertainty analysis will be presented, followed by several examples using @RISK to demonstrate the value of uncertainty analysis in a variety of applied settings, based on real-life case studies from the presenter's consulting practice.

This talk should appeal to practitioners from all skill levels. Example models shown during the talk will be made available to the participants.

  The Probability of Winning: Fact, Fantasy and Other Mysteries

Clay Graham
Advantage Analytics, LLC

» Download the presentation

Whether in a sporting event or identifying an investment strategy, the goal is simple: winning. Just what winning means will vary by the venue and methods of measurement. Accurately accessing the probability of winning (success) is at the heart of every sports-based decision.

Defining the decision-making process will be undertaken with alternative perspectives. From a baseball manager’s focus on winning today’s game to the professional investor quantifying season long betting strategies; some of the methodologies incorporated include:

  • Classic probabilitie
  • Logistics regression
  • Multiple regression
  • Bayesian statistics
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Pythagorean techniques
  • And other elusive and controversial procedures

Models will be constructed, to include:

  • Basic correlation analysis
  • Stepwise processing
  • Independence verification of each game
  • And measuring performance in units other than runs, e.g.,ratio of variances

Sensitivity analysis from an operational standpoint will be demonstrated to show the importance of variables and to support their prioritization; these will be described with tornado graphs. Probabilities of winning will be measured and enhanced through non-linear and stochastic optimization. Distributions of the probability of winning will be generated with some very counter intuitive results.

Software used: StatTools, @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer, BigPicture, PowerPivot.

  Using @RISK to Estimate Costs When the Rules of Procurement Change

Charles Berlin
Palmer Boyle
CSG Government Solutions

» Download the presentation

Medicaid Management Information System (MMIS) implementations are large-scale, multi-year information technology projects with costs extending to hundreds of millions of dollars. As such, the pricing is highly subject to uncertainty. Now, states planning to procure and implement these systems are faced with a new set of federal (match) funding requirements. More than any time in the past, these new requirements are forcing changes in the development of statewide procurement strategies that strengthen the case for using Palisade's @RISK to capture uncertainties and risks and present results in a visually compelling and easy to interpret format in order to support strategic planning and budgeting processes. For example, the procurement approaches for these enterprise level computer systems is transitioning away from large "big bang" procurements that have been subject to delays and cost overruns. Today, MMIS procurements contain numerous individual, specialized software modules that also include a technical integration services provider to connect each component and achieve interoperability of the individual software modules on a common service platform. Palisade's @RISK enables CSG Government Solutions to provide actionable cost estimates for this modular type of approach to enterprise system development in the face of increased uncertainty.

The Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel

The 2016 Palisade Conference will be held at:

Hilton New Orleans Riverside
Two Poydras Street
New Orleans, LA 70140

To reserve your room:

- Reserve online here
- Call 504-561-0500 and mention the Palisade Risk Conference

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