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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
August 25, 2015 San Francisco
2015
2015
  PALISADE

Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

August 25th, 2015 • San Francisco

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day conference in San Francisco. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“Very good conference with good usage of time.”

Mark Mendonca, Program Risk Management, Ernst & Young


“Excellent conference. If there are numbers that vary, you should be here.”

George Chiang, Independent Cost Analyst, Boeing Company


“Excellent conference. Very informative. Great topics.”

Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk Management at CenterPoint Energy


“It was a great conference that was very well organized. The round tables were great. As always, I would highly recommend your conference to others. Lastly, @RISK v6 and the interface with MS Project is great.”

Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP, Manager - Business Solutions and Risk Management / Vice President Cardno Entrix


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“It was an outstanding opportunity to update current knowledge about the software.”

Dr José Raúl Castro Esparza, BUAP


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


“Another great conference - well done! It's always a stimulating and thought-provoking experience, and great hospitality.”

Michael Brand, Captum Capital

Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer two types of sessions to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Networking Opportunities – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. Lunches, breaks and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2015 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2015 include Toronto, Chicago, New York, Calgary and New Orleans

Information about 2015 Conferences

Schedule

  Networking Sessions      
   Software Presentations      
  Industry Case Studies

Tuesday 25 August 2015

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 09:00
Registration
9:00 - 9:15
WELCOME

Welcome and Conference Introduction
Andrew Sich
Palisade Corporation

9:20 - 10:10
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Applying @RISK to Your Unique Situation
Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

10:10 - 10:30
Break
10:30 - 11:20
CASE STUDY

Quantifying Nontraditional Insurance Risks
Jessica Christensen and Zoë Rico
AON Risk Services

11:25 - 12:15
CASE STUDY

Decision-Making on the Farm Under Drought Conditions
Steven Slezak
California Polytechnic State University

12:20 - 1:15
Lunch
1:20 - 2:10
CASE STUDY

Extreme Tribological Performance Required. No Known Way To Make It Happen
Scott Burr
Innovation Scientific, LLC

2:15 - 3:05
3:05 - 3:25
Break
3:25 - 4:15
4:15 - 5:30
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Scott Burr

Principal
Innovation Scientific, LLC

Information Coming Soon.

  Jessica Christensen

Director
AON Risk Services

Jessica Christensen evaluates risk-financing strategies from an actuarial and financial perspective. She provides expertise in alternative risk mechanisms, including self-insurance and captive insurance companies. Jessica serves as lead consultant for high profile and large accounts, provides management to Los Angeles team, and ensures adherence to standards of practice. She has been with Aon for 23 years, and is a member of the ARS Leadership Committee, Los Angeles and the Risk Consulting Leadership Ops Committee, Americas. Special areas of expertise include professional liability, medical malpractice, products liability, general liability, workers compensation, and auto liability lines of insurance; health care, financial institution, grocery and food, retail, and manufacturing business sectors; government contractors, including defense industry; and captive insurance company evaluation, formation, monitoring.

Prior to joining Aon, Jessica was Manager of Financial Risk Analysis at Jardine Risk Management Inc. She was responsible for creating and managing actuarial and analytic services for clients, with emphasis on captive insurance companies. Prior to that, Jessica worked as Manager of Loss Reserve Accounting at Transamerica Insurance Group. She was responsible for managing calculation, dissemination, and audit of insurance company loss reserves, including preparation of reserve-based Annual Statement schedules.

  Zoë Rico

Associate Director & Actuary
AON Risk Services

Currently, Zoë Rico provides state-of-the-art actuarial techniques and solutions for Aon and independent clients, with a focus on analytical tools to enhance knowledgeable decision making. Zoë also provides professional actuarial analysis and certification of required studies and analyses. Areas of expertise include development and maintenance of the practice’s loss forecast template; accrual analysis, loss forecasting, captives (from feasibility to implementation to ongoing support), retention analysis and allocation; workers compensation, general liability, auto liability and property (business interruption, TRIA, catastrophe) lines of insurance; and developing stochastic Monte Carlo simulation models to aid Aon’s clients in better understanding the financial and operations risks they face.

 

  Sarah Sherry

Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Sarah Sherry is a software consultant for Palisade Corporation. Sarah was previously a Senior Lecturer at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. She taught spreadsheet modelling techniques and programs in the DecisionTools Suite for over thirteen years, and was nominated for the Kelley School’s highest teaching award four times, and received it once. After graduating, many of her former students and teaching assistants seek her advice and counsel in their places of work (accounting firms, loan departments, manufacturing operations, hospitals, political campaigns, and so on), on difficulties ranging from issues with data integrity to troubles in spreadsheet modeling.

Sarah collaborated with Dr Wayne Winston on two Harvard Business School Press courses, Spreadsheet Modeling and Mathematics for Management, and she is currently co-authoring an introductory business analytics textbook, to be published by Indiana University Press.

Sarah earned an M.A. in Applied Linguistics at Indiana University and completed the required coursework for a Ph.D. in Linguistics.

  Andrew Sich

Western Region Sales Manager
Palisade Corporation

Andrew Sich is a 7 year Palisade Corporation veteran, having worked in marketing, as well as in academic sales and commercial sales. He regularly coaches customers on how to incorporate probabilistic analysis into their spreadsheets and MS Project schedules using @RISK. Equally as important, Andrew also coaches customers on how to interpret and convey simulation results to decision makers in a palatable, easy to understand manner. Andrew holds a BS in Communications from Ithaca College and is a 30 year sales and marketing professional.

  Steven Slezak

Lecturer
California Polytechnic State University

Steven Slezak is a Lecturer in the Agribusiness Department of the College of Agriculture at Cal Poly. He teaches risk management, quantitative finance, financial management, and strategic planning classes. Professor Slezak uses @RISK to perform economic and financial analysis on a wide range of problems in industries as diverse as agribusiness, energy, investment management, banking, interest rate forecasting, education, and health care.

  Basil Stumborg

Decision Analysis
BC Hydro

Basil Stumborg is BC Hydro’s Decision Analysis expert. Basil joined BC Hydro in 2000 and has worked on a number of projects across the company, assisting BC Hydro in structuring its decision processes where decisions are complex and outcomes are uncertain.

In particular, Basil helped structure and implement the following: the Water Use Planning program that rebalanced competing interests at Hydro’s dams, its long-term provincial energy planning processes, BC Hydro’s Business Case Requirements, some litigation strategies and its load forecast model.

Basil also created and hosts BC Hydro’s internal training on Structured Decision-Making, to assist staff in implementing the business case requirements for complex projects and process changes.

Before joining BC Hydro, Basil did graduate work in economics (University of Wisconsin – Madison and McGill University) and psychology (Cornell University), taught university-level math and economics (University of Victoria and Pearson College), and consulted in the private and public sectors. The core focus of all of these activities has been decision-making under uncertainty and multiple-objective decision analysis—a discipline now known as behavioural economics.

  Jim Wolf

Project Governance
Pacific Gas & Electricc

Jim Wolf is an project management and cost engineering subject matter expert in the Strategic Business Management division of Pacific Gas & Electric. For the last 10 years, Jim has worked with major projects, programs, and portfolios within the oil and energy industry. As a member of the Project Governance team, he currently leads enterprise initiatives to improve project management and supports PG&E's portfolio of major projects. Jim's prior roles include Enterprise PMO Lead for Chevron's IT Project Management Center of Excellence, Lead Cost Engineer for Chevron's Environmental Management Company, and Project Manager for Belshire Environmental Services.

Jim has extensive experience applying stochastic modeling and simulation techniques to project risk and economic analysis. This includes rolling out @RISK to multiple large portfolios to support integrated cost and schedule risk analysis for major projects.

Jim earned his BA in Geography and minor in Statistical Science at UC Santa Barbara and his MBA from St. Mary's College of California.

Abstracts

  Welcome and Conference Introduction

Andrew Sich
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Regional Sales Manager Andrew Sich will set the stage for maximizing the benefits you’ll receive from the conference. After reviewing the conference goals, he will give some context about Palisade as a company. He will then give a brief introduction to quantitative decision-making using @RISK, demonstrating the powerful methodology that underpins the case studies to follow.

  Applying @RISK to Your Unique Situation

Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Consultant Sarah Sherry will draw on experience in several different industries to illustrate how you can apply Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques to your situation. We’ll review models taken from real-world problems in supply chain, project management, banking, and other sectors. You’ll experience straightforward Excel spreadsheet models as well as more robust, customized solutions built on @RISK using VBA. @RISK and other tools in the DecisionTools Suite will be touched upon.

  Quantifying Nontraditional Insurance Risks

Jessica Christensen and Zoë Rico
AON Risk Solutions

» Download the presentation

You can’t manage what you can’t measure, but what if there’s no data available for the measurement estimate? For some risks, there may be no loss data (traditional data) or at least not credible loss data to estimate future losses. However, by using a decision tree approach and nontraditional data sources, it may still be possible to quantify these risks. This session will include case studies to demonstrate the approach.

  Decision-Making on the Farm Under Drought Conditions

Steven Slezak
California Polytechnic State University

Agricultural producers facing extended drought conditions must make economic and strategic decisions regarding water use, land use, cropping patterns, cultivation methods, irrigation technology, and financing any revenue shortfalls. Some producers face the difficult decision of whether to end farm operations entirely.

Studies of agricultural decision-making processes during droughts and other times of water supply uncertainties show operators use a variety of strategies to cope. This is a complicated problem which farmers address by considering numerous natural, economic, structural, and behavioral factors.

These studies attempt to estimate the effectiveness of the different strategies. They also try to identify different combinations of strategies that might be employed at different stages of a drought – beginning, middle, and end.

Using empirical data from these studies, it is possible to create a decision tree illustrating the processes agricultural producers employ under conditions of drought. In some instances, Bayesian methods can be used to help understand the different decision-making options and their effectiveness.

Palisade PrecisionTree is used to perform this analysis.

  Extreme Tribological Performance Required. No Known Way To Make It Happen

Scott Burr
Innovation Scientific, LLC

In this case study, a 100-year old tribological performance limit was overcome preventing catastrophic hardware failures under extreme conditions. Traditional scientific knowledge and good engineering practice at the time indicated these limits could not be exceeded. The topic was charged with beliefs thought to be based in science.

Innovation Scientific has a 10 year history of leveraging their innovation process with their client’s domain experts to create extraordinary results. Using their highly-constrained problem solving methodology combined with Palisade’s Evolver genetic algorithm, they defined topological features that ultimately extended tribological performance limits while meeting critical system constraints.

“Tribology is defined as the science and technology of interacting surfaces in relative motion, and embraces the study of friction, wear and lubrication.” from Tribology-abc.com

  An Owner's Approach to Modeling Uncertainty through Project Risk Analysis

Jim Wolf
Pacific Gas & Electric

» Download the presentation

This session will present a fit-for-purpose approach to estimating cost and schedule uncertainty through project risk analysis. The focus will be on the asset owner's perspective, including examples of how owners can use historical project data, facilitated workshops, and scope quantification to predict project outcomes early in the project lifecycle. Business applications include estimate validation and contingency determination for large projects.

  Finding the perfect grain of sand – using Evolver and Optimizer to assist in procurement processes

Basil Stumborg
BC Hydro

» Download the presentation

The traditional approach to procurement at BC Hydro had developed into an excellent way to balance price and non-price factors in order to select one vendor for one widget. But when BC Hydro shifted its strategy to grouping purchases into category-wide classes and signalled its desire to select a small number of firms to service these needs, it faced a conundrum; choosing the best handful of vendors from a group of 20 based on their partial bids on 30 or so items was computationally more challenging than finding the perfect grain of sand on a beach.

In order to crack this conundrum, BC Hydro has started to make Evolver and Optimizer central tools in optimizing its procurement decisions. By using this optimization software, the procurement group can chew through the mind boggling large number of possible vendor/product combinations in order to find the solution that best balances cost and non-cost objectives.

This presentation will demonstrate how BC Hydro was able to move from optimization models, economic theory and detailed analysis of model outputs to preferred vendor selection and final awards. A range of practical tips will also be shared, from some key visuals to help non-mathematicians visualize the results, to some VBA tricks and tips for embedding Evolver into loops for more efficient sensitivity

Hyatt Regency San Francisco Airport


The Palisade Risk Conference will be held at the beautiful Hyatt Regency San Francisco Airport.

Address: 1333 Old Bayshore Hwy, Burlingame, CA 94010
Phone: (650) 347 1234
Website: Hyatt Regency San Francisco Airport

Palisade Corporation
798 Cascadilla Street
Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
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sales@palisade.com
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