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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
September 29, 2015 Oslo
2015
2015
  PALISADE

Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

September 29nd, 2015 • September

Oslo 2015 Risk Conference Brought Together Experts in Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

On September 29th, we brought our popular Regional Risk Conference series to Oslo, gathering at the premises of the Radisson Blu Plaza Hotel. This event explored quantitative risk and decision analysis for professionals dealing with risk across any industry. The attending delegates represented varied interests, from financial analysis to construction project risk assessment.

The Conference was opened by Palisade Business Development Manager – Manuel Carmona. He gave an overview of Palisade, and a presentation on "The World of Probability Analysis” including Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK. Over the course of the day there was further session from Palisade Consultant Sarah Sherry who demonstrated the best practices in Risk & Decision Analysis Modelling.

Throughout the day a number of highly educational and thought provoking case studies were presented by guest speakers from Alesco Risk Management Services - Ronan Barrett “How much Risk should you retain?”, DNV GL- Sophie Davidsson “How to estimate the benefits of Social Entrepreneurship” and RD&I Consulting - Hans Schjær-Jacobsen “Financial uncertainty profiles of the Fehmarn Belt immersed tunnel project by @RISK analysis”. These presentations covered industry case studies from fields as diverse as finance, optimization, project management and business development.

Delegates also found opportunities to network and share ideas during breaks and the evening networking session over a glass of wine.

If you want to find out more about this or any of our upcoming conferences visit http://www.palisade.com/Conf/.

» View photos from the conference

Join a Global Group

The 2015 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2015 include Rio de Janeiro, Johannesburg, Madrid, Melbourne, Munich, São Paulo, Oslo, Moscow, Zurich, London, Dubai and New Orleans.

Information about 2015 Conferences

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Tuesday 29 September 2015

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:30
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

9:30 - 10:30
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

10:30 - 11:00
Break
11:00 - 11:45
CASE STUDY

How much Risk should you retain?
Ronan Barrett
Alesco Risk Management Services

11:45 - 12:30
CASE STUDY

How to estimate the benefits of Social Entrepreneurship
Sophie Davidsson
DNV GL

12:30 - 1:30
Lunch
1:30 - 2:15
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Best Practices in Risk & Decision Analysis Modelling
Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

2:15 - 3:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Risk & Decision Analysis Solutions
Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

3:00 - 3:30
Break
3:30 - 4:15
4:15 - 4:30
Closing Remarks

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

4:30 - 5:30
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Ronan Barrett

Risk Consultant
Alesco Risk Management Services

Ronan qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 2010 at PKF Littlejohn in London. There he specialised in providing risk based consulting services to various Lloyd’s and London market insurance entities, including working on the analysis of industry mutual pricing, risk reviews of underwriting, reinsurance and claims functions and advising on the capital structuring of insurance groups.

He moved to Arthur J Gallagher in 2013 working as a Financial Business Partner before transferring to the groups specialist Energy broker Alesco Risk Management Services to work as a Risk Consultant. He now provides consulting services, including risk retention analysis, optimal captive strategies, complex programme design and alternative risk financing, to multinational Oil & Gas, Power and Petrochemical companies.

  Manuel Carmona

Business Development Manager
Palisade EMEA, UK

Manuel joined Palisade UK Ltd in 2003 as European sales director. He currently works with Palisade’s European customers to help them implement @RISK and other Palisade products in their organisations. He has spent most of his career in Europe working in various management and business development positions in the software industry. In 1994 he received a diploma in Computing for Commerce and Industry from the University of Barcelona, and an MBA from the University of Westminster in 2002.

  Sophie Davidsson

Consultant
DNV GL

Sophie Davidsson holds a M.Sc. in Risk Management and Safety Engineering from the Faculty of Engineering (LTH), Lund University, Sweden and has worked in DNV since Spring 2012. Sophie works as a consultant within “Project Investment Risk” with main focus on statistical analysis and quantitative uncertainty analysis within investment projects.

In 2011/2012 she wrote her Master Thesis for DNV GL and Posten Norway. The thesis was an assessment of the advantages of performing a quantitative uncertainty analysis of a corporate CO2-reduction project. The analysis was performed in @Risk and the developed model was based on well applied methodologies used at DNV GL.

Since then she has been involved in several cost-benefit and investment analyses of Norwegian national investment projects. Among these the quality assurance of a new transportation system at Jæren on behalf of the Norwegian Ministry of Finance and the concept evaluation of a future decommissioning of the existing nuclear facilities in Norway on behalf of the Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries.

In 2014 Sophie was responsible for the @Risk based analysis model that was used to analyze the socio-economic effect of the four projects supported by TRH Crown Prince Haakon and Crown Princess Mette-Marit’s Foundation.

This year she was responsible for the statistical analysis in a project for UN Global Compact. The project involved an analysis of changes in Corporate Sustainability over the last 15 years and the role that United Nations Global Compact has played in enabling these changes.

  Hans Schjær-Jacobsen

Senior Consultant
RD&I Consulting

Hans Schjær-Jacobsen holds a M.Sc. and Ph.D. from the Technical University of Denmark and a B.Com. degree from Copenhagen Business School. He has held leading positions in industry as well as academia. His major research interest is now in uncertainty and risk analysis where he contributed to the understanding, representation and calculation of aleatory as well as epistemic uncertainty, primarily in connection with large infrastructure projects. He pursues his scientific interests as a senior consultant in RD&I Consulting which he founded after recently retiring as a professor and director at the Technical University of Denmark.

  Sarah Sherry

Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Sarah Sherry is a software consultant for Palisade Corporation. Sarah was previously a Senior Lecturer at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. She taught spreadsheet modelling techniques and programs in the DecisionTools Suite for over thirteen years, and was nominated for the Kelley School’s highest teaching award four times, and received it once. After graduating, many of her former students and teaching assistants seek her advice and counsel in their places of work (accounting firms, loan departments, manufacturing operations, hospitals, political campaigns, and so on), on difficulties ranging from issues with data integrity to troubles in spreadsheet modeling.

Sarah collaborated with Dr Wayne Winston on two Harvard Business School Press courses, Spreadsheet Modeling and Mathematics for Management, and she is currently co-authoring an introductory business analytics textbook, to be published by Indiana University Press.

Sarah earned an M.A. in Applied Linguistics at Indiana University and completed the required coursework for a Ph.D. in Linguistics.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in Oslo
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

  Conference Welcome & Introduction

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

Palisade General Manager Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst’s toolbox. Manuel Carmona will also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  How much Risk should you retain?

Ronan Barrett
Alesco Risk Management Services

» Download the presentation

Risk managers of large corporate groups are often faced with the question of how much risk their group should retain and how much they should transfer when deciding on a risk financing structure.

Traditionally an analysis of the optimal retention of a group has been to look at the “cost of risk”, what are my expected losses and what is the cost of my insurance. This approach cannot fully appeal to the financial decision makers, more often than not the groups CFO, who will make decisions based on whether a financial investment will exceed the internal cost of capital. A more advanced approach is needed, one that looks at the “cost of risk” but also the “cost of capital” when considering the level of retention a group should take.

The presentation will look to compare a traditional “cost of risk” approach against a “cost of risk and capital” approach for a large multinational energy group, using @RISK to calculate the distribution of different loss outcomes for different retention levels.

  Risk & Decision Analysis Solutions

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

For 30 years Palisade have been well known for their tools which add additional capabilities to Excel, such as @RISK and PrecisionTree. However, this is by no means all Palisade has to offer in 2015. Palisade are seen today as a ‘solution provider’, and year on year have seen their Consulting & Custom Solutions division grow from strength to strength. As well as consulting projects this team also build bespoke application solutions for customers all over the world. In this presentation, we’ll see examples of the types of solutions on offer.

  How to estimate the benefits of Social Entrepreneurship

Sophie Davidsson
DNV GL

» Download the presentation

According to ILO the average youth unemployment rate between 2010 and 2014 was 9.1 % in Norway, during the same period it was as high as 23.8 % in Sweden. When it comes to reducing youth unemployment and social exclusion social entrepreneurs may provide an important complement to government action plans. They spur cooperation between the public sector, civil society, private business and the education sector.

As for any other sector it is of immense importance to ensure the business case of the project or operation. The business case in the view of a social entrepreneur, working with youth, is to improve the participants' lives. The goals are partly qualitative (for example social inclusion and participation), but may also be quantitative. How is it possible to quantitatively ensure the business case of a social entrepreneur? It comes down to analyzing the youths lives after taking part in a project compared to a parallel universe were they are not participating.

In 2014 DNV GL performed an analysis of the socio-economic effect of projects supported by TRH Crown Prince Haakon and Crown Princess Mette-Marit’s Foundation. The overarching aim of the projects is to help young people into work or back to school. With @RISK as a tool we simulated the lifespan of the participants.

  Financial uncertainty profiles of the Fehmarn Belt immersed tunnel project by @RISK analysis

Hans Schjær-Jacobsen
RD&I Consulting

» Download the presentation

The Fehmarn Belt immersed tunnel project approved by the Danish parliament on 28 April 2015 is supposed to be built, owned (apart from the German land works), and operated by a Danish state agency Femern A/S, a subsidiary of Sund & Bælt Holding A/S, and financed by loans guaranteed by the Danish government. The loans are going to be amortized by incomes from the tunnel users. According to official plans construction work will start full scale this fall (awaiting clarification of three major uncertainty issues, though: 1) obtainable subsidies by the EU, 2) total construction costs, and 3) approval by German authorities) and the tunnel is going to be inaugurated and opened to public traffic by the beginning of 2022. Since the official financial model of Femern A/S is publically unavailable the uncertainty profiles presented in this paper are based on a model developed by the author and validated in terms of project payback period within an absolute accuracy of ±1 year compared to published results generated by the official model. Such features as subsidies by EU, inflation, nominal and real interest rates, depreciation, VAT, and joint taxation with Sund & Bælt Holding A/S are included. Based on publically available information the project is critically recalculated with respect to realistic uncertainty analyses not hitherto presented to the public. Uncertainty is represented and calculated by probabilistic uncertainty representation and Monte Carlo simulation by @RISK. The resulting project uncertainty profiles are presented in terms of a traffic light metaphor: Green light corresponds to a payback period less than 40 years, yellow to 40-50 years, and red to larger than 50 years. It turns out that the likelihood of financial project failure in terms of the payback period being outside of the green light zone is substantially larger then acknowledged by the project proponents and presented to the Danish parliament. This is primarily due to apparently too optimistic base case assumptions of critical, but uncertain, project variables and methodologically insufficient partial sensitivity analyses.

Radisson Blu Plaza Hotel

Sonja Henies Plass 3, 0134 Oslo, Norway
T: +47 22 05 80 00
F: +47 22 05 80 30
For more information, see the hotel website

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