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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
June 24, 2015 Chicago
2015
2015
  PALISADE

Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

June 24th, 2015 • Chicago

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day conference in Chicago. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“Very good conference with good usage of time.”

Mark Mendonca, Program Risk Management, Ernst & Young


“Excellent conference. If there are numbers that vary, you should be here.”

George Chiang, Independent Cost Analyst, Boeing Company


“Excellent conference. Very informative. Great topics.”

Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk Management at CenterPoint Energy


“It was a great conference that was very well organized. The round tables were great. As always, I would highly recommend your conference to others. Lastly, @RISK v6 and the interface with MS Project is great.”

Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP, Manager - Business Solutions and Risk Management / Vice President Cardno Entrix


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“It was an outstanding opportunity to update current knowledge about the software.”

Dr José Raúl Castro Esparza, BUAP


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


“Another great conference - well done! It's always a stimulating and thought-provoking experience, and great hospitality.”

Michael Brand, Captum Capital

Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer two types of sessions to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Networking Opportunities – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. Lunches, breaks and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2015 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2015 include Rio de Janeiro, Johannesburg, Madrid, Melbourne, Munich, São Paulo, Oslo, Moscow, Zurich, London, Dubai and New Orleans.

Information about 2015 Conferences

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Software Presentations      
  Industry Case Studies

Wednesday 24 June 2015 · Chicago

Please note the conference schedule may change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration
9:00 - 9:10
WELCOME

Welcome and Conference Introduction
Steve Hunt
Palisade Corporation

9:15 - 10:00
10:05 - 10:50
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Applying @RISK to Your Unique Situation
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

10:50 - 11:20
Break
11:20 - 12:05
CASE STUDY

Modeling without Data: Using @RISK Simulation to Handle Uncertain Assumptions
Christopher (Kip) Bohn
AON Risk Solutions

12:05 - 12:50
Lunch
12:50 - 1:35
CASE STUDY

Using @RISK to assess Programmatic Cost and Schedule Contingencies
Kimberly Kozak
Patrick Engineering

1:40 - 2:25
CASE STUDY

Moving Yellow Pages Dollars to Digital Solutions: An NeuralTools Case Study
Dr. Christine Hensley Sherman
Marquette Group

2:25 - 2:55
Break
2:55 - 3:40
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Selecting the Right Distribution to use in @RISK
Fernando Hernández
PALISADE CORPORATION

3:45 - 4:30
4:35 - 5:00
PLENARY

Final Thoughts: Stepping Up Your Decision-Making
Randy Heffernan
Palisade Corporation

5:00 - 7:00
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Chris Bohn

Director and Actuary
AON RISK SOLUTIONS

Christopher (Kip) Bohn is Director and Actuary of Aon Risk Consultants, where he manages actuarial pricing and reserving analyses for various self-insurance programs and captive insurance companies; develops and maintains stochastic models for actuarial, Enterprise Risk Management, supply chain risks and operational risks; provides peer review to ensure adherence to applicable standards of practice; and assists in the overall strategic planning initiatives for the practice.

His special areas of expertise include developing stochastic Monte Carlo simulation models for Aon’s clients; accrual analysis; loss forecasting; captives (from feasibility to implementation to ongoing support); optimal risk financing design; and allocation modeling. He also specializes in supply chain modeling from manufacturing to service organizations, with expertise in the Healthcare, Life Sciences, Financial Services, Construction, Energy, and Retail sectors, as well as experience in insurance risk financing decisions and alternative risk mitigation decisions.

Prior to his role at Aon, Bohn worked at Towers Watson where he did risk management and modeling, and at St. Paul Companies as a pricing and reserving actuary. He received a B.A. in mathematics at University St. Thomas, St. Paul, Minnesota, and is a Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst.

  Randy Heffernan

Vice President
Palisade Corporation

Randy Heffernan started with Palisade in 1997, and helped the company expand with its first overseas office in Plymouth, England, in 1998. Further geographic expansions included London in 2002 and Sydney, Australia in 2005. He has held a variety of roles in sales, marketing, and management, and currently oversees much of the corporate operations. Randy works closely with the sales staff to understand client needs and liaise with software development. Randy holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Management and Marketing, and an MBA, both from Cornell University.

  Fernando Hernández

Senior Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Fernando Hernández' areas of expertise are banking, finance, manufacturing, project evaluation, market forecasting and pricing. Fernando currently owns and operates InfoMasters, a company geared towards training, consulting and developing financial applications and decision making models for financial and manufacturing companies, using Microsoft Office and Palisade software. He has developed and taught courses including Intro to Corporate Finance, and Financial Simulation and Investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has created financial models, risk analyses and feasibility studies using @RISK. Fernando earned his licentiate degree in Finance Administration from the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar, he completed his MBA at Indiana University majoring in Finance & MIS.

  Kimberly Kozak

Senior Project Manager
Patrick Engineering

Kim Kozak is Senior Project Manager for Patrick Engineering, and currently is the Project Controls Manager for the MBTA Red Line Orange Line Program, overseeing cost, schedule, and risk management efforts. She provides project management training for Patrick staff, focusing on earned value analysis, scheduling, cost control, and risk management.

Kim’s areas of expertise include developing programmatic Monte Carlo risk simulation models for Patrick’s clients, assessing programmatic risk for transit and Department of Energy clients, providing insight early in the project’s life cycle to assess feasibility of the project.

Prior to Kim’s involvement with Patrick, she has worked for HNTB performing project controls efforts and risk management, and worked for general contractors as a project manager. She received a B.S. in civil engineering at Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, and is a Professional Engineer, Project Management Professional, and Risk Management Professional.

  Stephen Hunt, LSSBB

Regional Sales Manager
Palisade Corporation

Stephen Hunt has been with Palisade since 2003. He started as the Six Sigma Product Manager and 6 years ago took on an additional role as the Regional Sales Manager for the Midwest. He enjoys working with customers from the many different industries that use @RISK. Before joining Palisade, Steve worked in the thin film optics industry for over 15 years with industry leading companies such as Denton Vacuum, Oakley Sunglass and Evaporated Metal Films. During this period, he worked in applied research and development, process and production engineering and engineering management. He was responsible for the creation and re-engineering of optical coating processes and manufacturing techniques. Applications ranged from high volume production cells that produced coatings for sunglasses, telecommunications equipment and medical devices to low volume, high value custom manufacturing of unique parts for satellites and observatory telescopes. Steve is a Lean Six Sigma Black Belt and brings a wide range of experience in manufacturing and engineering.

  Venkat Raman

Managing Principal
VR Advisors

Venkat is the managing principal of VR Advisors , an advisory services firm. VR Advisors creates value by applying contemporary management science and advanced risk analysis to solve their clients’ most critical issues and business opportunities. Venkat has 30 years of experience in strategy and corporate finance across public companies and entrepreneurship. He began his career with the Big 6 and over the years has held leadership positions in the management consulting (Coopers & Lybrand), insurance (Sedgwick and ACE), technology services (Foundation), and entrepreneurial ventures (ITernal, Dotflex and One Integrative Health). Venkat is a proud supporter of Taproot Foundation and is the finance director at Taproot for Chicagoland projects. He is also a MERLIN mentor – an organization that supports innovation and entrepreneurial activity throughout the Madison WI community. Venkat is an MBA from Indiana University, a qualified CPA, and a Chartered Accountant.

  Adam Sharpe

Project Manager
CH2M HILL

Adam Sharpe is a project manager based in CH2M HILL’s Raleigh office and focuses on long-range planning, asset management, advanced data analytics, probabilistic modeling, risk analysis and decision support. He has a BS in Biology from SUNY Cortland, an MS in Natural Resource Management from NC State University, and a Professional Certificate in Strategic Decision and Risk Management from Stanford University. His range of experience with the Palisade Suite includes decision support for a 3,000-acre international logistics center, 50-year integrated water supply planning, watershed and riverine analysis, long range demand forecasting and asset management models for long-term renewal and replacement of plant equipment and structures.

  Dr. Christine Hensley Sherman

Performance Analytics Manager
Marquette Group

Christine Hensley Sherman, Ph.D., is currently the Performance Analytics Manager for Marquette Group, an advertising company based out of Peoria, Illinois. Her team provides insight and analysis of client’s customers’ call data to measure the performance of digital and print advertising solutions. Prior to joining the Marquette Group in 2006, Christine’s first career was an archaeologist. She held various historic preservation jobs for both federal and state governments developing and implementing research designs to evaluate the historic significance of archaeological sites.

  JD Solomon

Professional Engineer
CH2M HILL

JD Solomon is the Vice President for CH2M Hill’s eastern US Strategic Consulting Practice. He is a licensed PE in 3 states (NC, SC, and VA), a Certified Maintenance and Reliability Professional (CMRP), and Certified Reliability Engineer (CRE), a Six Sigma Black Belt, and is certified in Lean Management. In 2013, NC Governor Pat McCrory appointed JD to the State Water Infrastructure Authority (SWIA). In 2014, JD was appointed to the state’s Blue Ribbon Commission on Public Infrastructure.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in Toronto
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

  Welcome and Conference Introduction

Steve Hunt
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Regional Sales Manager Steve Hunt will set the stage for maximizing the benefits you’ll receive from the conference. After reviewing the conference goals, he will give some context about Palisade as a company. He will then give a brief introduction to quantitative decision-making using @RISK, demonstrating the powerful methodology that underpins the case studies to follow.

  Tailoring Analytical and Communication Approaches for High Stakes Capital Infrastructure Projects

Adam Sharpe and JD Solomon
CH2M HILL

» Download the presentation

Planning for future capital infrastructure projects is dependent on conditions that may change in unpredictable ways. The farther in the future infrastructure requirements are projected the greater the uncertainty. Critical project elements such as permitting, design, and construction can take upwards of a decade to bring the infrastructure online; and therefore decisions on projects are made well in advance of the need. In order to enable decision makers to make informed decisions on these projects the appropriate analytical approaches need to be applied and the results of the analysis need to be communicated in a manner that is most effective for the audience.

The Palisade Decision Tools Suite provides an industry-leading suite of tools to facilitate the analytical process to allow for risk-informed decisions to be made on capital intensive infrastructure projects. The issue most practitioners have is not related to the analytical process but the communication of the analysis results at different levels of an organization. The communication to technical stakeholders should be very different than the communication to non-technical stakeholders, such as executive management and even the public.

This presentation will highlight the importance of selecting the analytical approaches that will provide meaningful insights for decisions makers and the best practices for effectively communicating risk and uncertainty to a range of audiences. Case studies will be provided, including: (1) the decision related to an investment and development of a new multi-million dollar water supply reservoir, (2) the selection of system reliability alternatives to support the long-term water supply for a rapidly growing community, and (3) cash flow analysis for a $300 million state-level infrastructure grant and loan program. The decision models and communication techniques used for each case study will be reviewed.

  Applying @RISK to Your Unique Situation

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Senior Consultant Fernando Hernandez will draw on experience in several different industries to illustrate how you can apply Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques to your situation. We’ll review models taken from real-world problems in supply chain, project management, banking, and other sectors. You’ll experience straightforward Excel spreadsheet models as well as more robust, customized solutions built on @RISK using VBA. @RISK and other tools in the DecisionTools Suite will be touched upon.

  Modeling without Data: Using @RISK Simulation to Handle Uncertain Assumptions

Christopher (Kip) Bohn
AON Risk Solutions

» Download the presentation

All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” We rely on models to estimate unknowns and make better decisions in the face of uncertainty. Data is useful for models when available, but what happens when you don’t have any data? We will walk through two examples – one based on an investment in a liquefied natural gas project, one based on a counterterrorism initiative – to demonstrate how simulation using @RISK can be a very useful way to assess and weigh different risks, and ultimately make better-informed decisions.

  Using @RISK to assess Programmatic Cost and Schedule Contingencies

Kimberly Kozak
Patrick Engineering

Too often projects are subject to cost and schedule overruns because risk analysis was not performed determine the cost and schedule outcomes for the project at various levels of probability (levels of confidence), and assist the Client with specifying the contingency to be included for the base cost estimate and schedule. A critical step in the risk analysis for the cost and schedule of a project includes the development of a Risk Register capturing costs associated with identified risk, utilizing the @RISK program to capture cumulative effect of the Construction Estimate Accuracy, Escalation, Extended Overhead, and Cost Related Risk items identified in the Risk Register. We will examine a case study to show how to build a reliable risk model, and discuss right sized distributions to capture applicable contingency.

  Moving Yellow Pages Dollars to Digital Solutions: An NeuralTools Case Study

Dr. Christine Hensley Sherman
Marquette Group

» Download the presentation

» Example Model

Marquette Group connects qualified, local customers to national brands through integrated digital media, including local organic listings, mobile, social and paid search advertising, as well as traditional media like yellow pages.

Our challenge over the last five years has been to strategically reduce our clients’ yellow pages advertising budgets in those markets where the medium underperforms, then identify which digital products will meet their key performance indicators (KPI). This presentation reviews how we used NeuralTools to predict what markets, throughout the country, a national car rental brand should continue to place print yellow pages advertising and at what price point to meet their cost per lead metric.

  Selecting the Right Distribution to use in @RISK

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

This session covers the choice of the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. The use of distributions to treat a variety of risk modeling situations is discussed, and some more advanced features such as bootstrapping, batch fitting, and the live fit function, will be covered as time permits.

  Financial Evaluation of a New Product in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

Venkat Raman
VR Advisors

» Download the presentation

The presentation will discuss the financial evaluation of new product introductions in the CPG industry. The case study will present an abridged version of a real engagement including category background, marketplace, competitive challenges and scenario analysis. The presentation will focus on uncertainties relating to category growth, relative growth, share leadership and NPV to evaluate the opportunity.

  Final Thoughts: Stepping Up Your Decision-Making

Randy Heffernan
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Vice President Randy Heffernan will close the conference with thoughts on questions you’ve undoubtedly been asked: “What is risk analysis and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many cases, and even now companies still struggle to understand risk. How do we avoid missteps, and how can we apply probabilistic methods most effectively?

Embassy Suites Chicago Downtown


The Palisade Risk Conference will be held at the beautiful and historic Embassy Suites Chicago Downtown.

Address: 600 North State St Chicago, IL 60654
Phone: (312) 943-3800
Website: Embassy Suites Chicago Downtown

Palisade Corporation
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