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2014
PALISADE

Regional Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

April 3rd, 2014 • Amsterdam
2014
  PALISADE

Regional Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

April 3rd, 2014, Amsterdam, Netherlands

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

On April 3rd, we brought our popular Regional Risk Conference series to Amsterdam, gathering at the premises of the beautiful Crowne Plaza Amsterdam City Centre hotel. This event explored quantitative risk and decision analysis for professionals dealing with risk across any industry. The attending delegates represented varied interests, from financial analysis to construction project risk assessment.

The Conference was opened by Palisade Business Development Manager – Sascha Stange. He gave an overview of Palisade, and a presentation on "The Power of Probability” including hints and tips on @RISK and DecisionTools Suite. Over the course of the day there were further sessions from Palisade Consultants Sarah Sherry and Dr. Javier Ordóñez who demonstrated what to pay attention to when selecting the right distribution, how to simplify, automate and customize models, as well as improving the usability and accessibility of the methodologies and tools across the enterprise.

Throughout the day a number of highly educational and thought provoking case studies were presented by guest speakers from Cathie Associates - Hendrik Versteele “@RISK applications in Offshore Geotechnical Engineering – Examples from Oil & Gas and Renewable Projects”, Deloitte Risk Services - Scott Mongeau “Innovation Portfolio Management with Palisade DecisionTools Suite”, Royal HaskoningDHV- Jacek Pachocki “Cost and Risk Estimating of Infrastructural Projects at Royal HaskoningDHV”, and DSM - Frank Grimberg “Embracing Uncertainty in Decision Making: The Rollout of the DSM Decision Dialogue”. These presentations covered industry case studies from fields as diverse as finance, optimization, project management and business development.

Delegates also took advantage of one-to-one ‘Expert Sessions’. These were offered by Palisade consultants and technical experts, these hands-on, consulting sessions helped some of the participants improve their risk models and answer some problematic questions.

Delegates also found opportunities to network and share ideas during breaks and the evening networking session over a glass of wine.

Download presentations from the conference

Join us at an upcoming event

Join a Global Group

The 2014 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2014 include Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Dubai, Madrid, London, Frankfurt, and Johannesburg, with more dates to come.

Information about 2014 Conferences

Schedule

  Networking Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Thursday 3 April 2014

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

08:30 - 09:00
Registration and Coffee
09:00 - 09:30
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Sascha Stange
Palisade Corporation

09:30 - 11:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to @RISK & DecisionTools Suite: Overview, Hints & Tips
Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

11:00 - 11:30
Break
11:30 - 12:15
12:15 - 1:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Selecting the Right Distribution in @RISK 6
Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

1:00 - 2:00
Lunch
2:00 - 2:45
CASE STUDY

Innovation Portfolio Management with Palisade DecisionTools Suite
Scott Mongeau
Deloitte Risk Services

2:45 - 3:30
3:30 - 4:00
Break
4:00 - 4:45
4:45 - 5:30
Closing Remarks



5:30 - 6:30
Reception

Presenters

  Sascha Stange

Business Development Manager
Palisade EMEA

Sascha Stange is a Business Development Manager with Palisade responsible for the D/A/CH, BeNeLux and Eastern Europe. He looks back on +10 years’ experience in selling software solutions for well-known companies. Sascha looks after Palisade`s customers in these regions and helps them to find the solution which best suites their specific needs and which delivers the highest possible ROI.

  Doug Oldfield

Sales and Business Development Manager
Palisade EMEA

Doug Oldfield joined Palisade in 2008 and is responsible for looking after sales and business development in the UK, Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. Prior to joining Palisade, Doug worked for 8 years at an IT recruitment company in London, and was also manager of a number of hi-fi shops - including “The Busiest Shop in the World”. Doug holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Politics and Philosophy.

  Hendrik Versteele

Project Engineer
Cathie Associates

Hendrik Versteele is a project engineer at Cathie Associates' Brussels office. After graduating from the University of Leuven and the University of Liège, Belgium with an MSc in mining and geological engineering, he has worked on a variety of offshore geotechnical engineering projects, with a focus on submarine pipeline engineering and finite element techniques. He has a strong interest in probabilistic design methods and financial impact of geotechnical parameters.

  Sarah Sherry

Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Sarah Sherry is a software consultant for Palisade Corporation. Sarah was previously a Senior Lecturer at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. She taught spreadsheet modelling techniques and programs in the DecisionTools Suite for over thirteen years, and was nominated for the Kelley School’s highest teaching award four times, and received it once. After graduating, many of her former students and teaching assistants seek her advice and counsel in their places of work (accounting firms, loan departments, manufacturing operations, hospitals, political campaigns, and so on), on difficulties ranging from issues with data integrity to troubles in spreadsheet modeling.

Sarah collaborated with Dr Wayne Winston on two Harvard Business School Press courses, Spreadsheet Modeling and Mathematics for Management, and she is currently co-authoring an introductory business analytics textbook, to be published by Indiana University Press.

Sarah earned an M.A. in Applied Linguistics at Indiana University and completed the required coursework for a Ph.D. in Linguistics.

  Scott Mongeau

Analytics Manager
Deloitte Risk Services

Scott Mongeau (MA MA GD MBA PhD (ABD)) is Analytics Manager at Deloitte, based in Amsterdam, Netherlands. Previously he owned and operated his own independent analytics consulting company, SARK7 (www.sark7.com). Scott has over 20 years of experience in project-focused analytics functions in a range of industries, including management consulting, IT, biotech, pharmaceuticals, materials, insurance, law enforcement, financial services, and start-ups. Past consulting clients have included DSM, Accenture, Genentech Inc., Roche, Palisade, and several biotech startups.

  Dr Javier Ordóñez

Director of Custom Solutions
Palisade Corporation

Dr Javier Ordóñez holds a BS in Civil Engineering from the Universidad de Cuenca, Ecuador and a MS in Project Management from the University of Maryland. Javier earned his PhD from the University of Maryland performing research on project risk analysis. His current research deals with cost and schedule integration and correlation issues through the use of Bayesian belief networks.

Javier's experience is in the areas of construction and project management, optimal project and capital investments selection, earned value management, engineering and project risk analysis, and operations research applications to engineering and management problems.

Javier has taught as an adjunct professor in the Project Management Program at University of Maryland and provides training in risk and decision analysis. He is also registered as a Project Management Professional (PMP).

  Jacek Pachocki

Senior Consultant, Cost Engineer
Royal HaskoningDHV

Jacek Pachocki is a cost engineer with almost 20 years of cost estimating experience. He works mostly on infrastructural projects but also on ITS and aviation related projects. Recent experience includes a multi-billion Road Pricing Project, the Grand Canal of Nicaragua, and Schiphol Airfield Ground Lighting.

  Frank Grimberg

Senior Manager Innovation Practice
DSM

Frank Grimberg is Senior Manager Innovation Practice at DSM, a company operating in the areas of Life Sciences and Materials Sciences, advancing choices in health, nutrition, and materials. Frank previously held roles in Innovation Control and Risk Management at DSM and earlier worked as consultant at EY . He is well positioned to articulate an integrated view of practices aimed at addressing challenges at the intersection of risk, innovation, and organizational change.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in Amsterdam
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

  Welcome: Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis

Sascha Stange
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Business Development Manager, Sascha Stange, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Introduction to @RISK & the DecisionTools Suite: Overview, Hints & Tips

Douglas Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK and the other products in the DecisionTools Suite, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst’s toolbox. Doug Oldfield will also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  @RISK Applications in Offshore Geotechnical Engineering – Examples from Oil & Gas and Renewable Projects

Hendrik Versteele
Cathie Associates

» Download the presentation

As the cost of offshore foundations constitutes a significant amount of the capital expenditure for offshore energy projects, identifying and mitigating the foundation-related risks during the engineering phase is essential. The natural variability of loads on these structures needs to be addressed as well as the (sometimes very large) variations of the ground which has to resist movements of the foundations. Conservative deterministic design procedures are mostly used to ensure sufficient foundation safety. However, variability is not captured satisfactorily in these approaches and probabilistic calculations can lead to more cost-effective foundation solutions.

This presentation gives an overview of possible applications where probabilistic analysis with @RISK can lead to better decision-making. The first example demonstrates how probabilistic analysis can be used for independent verification of safety factors given in design codes. Subsequently, the value of probabilistic considerations during penetration behavior of suction caisson foundation is highlighted. Finally, a decision-analysis for (costly) foundation verification analyses is presented, demonstrating the optimum testing strategy.

  Selecting the Right Distribution in @RISK 6

Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

This session covers the choice of the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.

  Innovation Portfolio Management with Palisade DecisionTools Suite

Scott Mongeau
Deloitte Risk Services

» Download the presentation

Managing innovation initiatives requires making structured decisions in environments of great uncertainty and complexity. Palisade DecisionTools offers an integrated platform for quantifying risks / opportunities, gaining analytical insights, optimising strategy, and guiding decisions. This presentation will summarise the central challenges facing innovation professionals and demonstrate how DecisionTools can be used in an integrated fashion to address these challenges. A case study involving a sustainable energy innovation initiative for a materials conglomerate will be used to illustrate and demonstrate core principles. Both technical and organisational factors will be addressed.

  Custom Solutions: Simplify, Automate and Customise your Models, and Improve the Usability across the Enterprise

Dr Javier Ordóñez
Palisade Corporation

@RISK and DecisionTools Suite software ship with fully-featured development environments that allow you to create custom applications using Palisade technology directly in Excel (Excel Developer Kits or XDKs). You can customise the application interface to include only what the users need, hiding unused @RISK functionality and preventing user access to the underlying model logic. You can also automate processes like reporting, generating only the charts and data you want. The result is a perfectly tailored application ready to roll out to your workgroup. And because the application is in Excel, the training required for users is minimal.

Palisade Custom Development has written applications for cost estimation, asset management, retirement planning, oil and gas prospecting, and more – all utilising @RISK technology in Excel. In this presentation, we will cover as many examples of custom applications as time allows.

  Cost and Risk Estimating of Infrastructural Projects at Royal HaskoningDHV

Jacek Pachocki
Royal HaskoningDHV

» Download the presentation

Royal HaskoningDHV is an independent, international engineering and project management consultancy with over 130 years of experience. Our professionals deliver their services in the fields of asset management, aviation, buildings, energy, industry, infrastructure, maritime, mining, strategy, transport, urban and rural planning, water management and water technology. One of the services RHDHV delivers to its clients is preparing Costs and risks estimates of infrastructural projects. Using a real-life but anonymised project we will demonstrate how the estimate is built and calculated. We will show our cost estimating model based on @RISK formulas together with our own independent input, alterations and results report.

  Embracing Uncertainty in Decision Making: The Rollout of the DSM Decision Dialogue

Frank Grimberg
DSM

» Download the presentation

Royal DSM is a global science-based company active in health, nutrition and materials. By connecting its unique competences in Life Sciences and Materials Sciences DSM is driving economic prosperity, environmental progress and social advances to create sustainable value for all stakeholders simultaneously. DSM delivers innovative solutions that nourish, protect and improve performance in global markets such as food and dietary supplements, personal care, feed, medical devices, automotive, paints, electrical and electronics, life protection, alternative energy and bio-based materials. DSM’s 24,500 employees deliver annual net sales of around €10 billion. The company is listed on NYSE Euronext.

Currently, DSM is rolling out a new way of working for innovation and venturing decision making. The so-called DSM Decision Dialogue, or in short ‘3D’, positions controllers as a catalyzer to improve decision making while dealing with project uncertainties in project teams. The case study will zoom-in on the context for ‘3D’ and how it works out in practice.

Crowne Plaza Amsterdam
City Centre

The Palisade Risk Conference will be held at the beautiful Crowne Plaza Amsterdam City Centre hotel c/o Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 5 at 1012 RC Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Tel +31 20 521 1718, email amsnl.reservations@ihg.com. For more information, see the hotel website.

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