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Injecting Certainty into an Uncertain Process: Using Monte Carlo Simulation to improve your Forecast Processes

As many companies have discovered forecasting the future is fraught with many uncertainties:

  • Profitability – how best to estimate future demand, prices and costs for goods and services?
  • Liquidity – Is my company over borrowed, under invested or over exposed?
  • Risk – what happens if market rates (interest, currency, commodity) change or my banking partners impose conditions which jeopardize access to external sources of funds?

In addition, a reliance on forecasting tools like accounting systems and spreadsheets injects another level of uncertainty into the forecasting process, namely the probability of error or inability to integrate multiple sets of future outputs based on disparate sets of assumptions. After all ERP systems were designed to record historical events with accounting like certainty; however, the common denominator in any forecast is that its results will certainly be uncertain when compared to actual results.

In this webinar we will discuss the use of a statistical technique called Monte Carlo simulation (using @RISK) which uses probability distributions to estimate a range over which certain events or outcomes will / will not occur. By combining the business experience of your production and finance staff with this statistical technique you will be better able to see which outcomes are most probable.

Whether your business is in manufacturing, service, warehousing, distribution or finance, this webinar will enlighten you as to a new way in which to inject certainty into an uncertain process.

Program Level: Intermediate

Prerequisites: Familiarity with Microsoft Excel. No Advanced Preparation required.

These courses are Group Live Offerings. Credits available per hour of instruction: 1 PMI Professional Development Unit, 1 PDH toward AACEI certification.


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