University of Adelaide Prof uses Palisade's @RISK to Predict FIFA World Cup
 
 

University of Adelaide Prof uses Palisade's @RISK to Predict FIFA World Cup

 
 

Click to see the complete results table from Dr. Begg's model.
Click to see the complete results table from Dr. Begg's model.

One of the favourites in soccer’s upcoming 2018 FIFA World Cup, Germany, has just 13.3% chance of winning. And Australia has 14% chance of getting to the round of 16, but only 0.1% chance of winning. These are outcomes from an uncertainty model devised by University of Adelaide’s Steve Begg. Dr. Begg used Palisade's @RISK to create the model.

Steve Begg is Professor of Decision-making and Risk Analysis in the University’s Australian School of Petroleum. His research and teaching focuses on decision-making under uncertainty, and the psychological and judgmental factors that impact it. Normally he applies this work to decision-making in the oil and gas and other industries.

For the FIFA World Cup, which kicked off last week, he developed a Monte Carlo simulation of the competition using @RISK, based on team rankings with other input including recent form. The modern Monte Carlo technique was developed in World War 2, by scientists working on the Manhattan Project – the development of the atomic bomb. The key idea is that rather than trying to work out every possible outcome of a complex system, enough possibilities are modelled to be able to estimate the chance of any particular outcome occurring.

“The outcomes of many decisions we make are uncertain because of things outside of our control,” says Professor Begg. “Uncertainty is crucial in predicting the chance of an oil or gas field being economic. In the World Cup, it determines the many ways the whole tournament might play out. What makes it so hard to predict is not just uncertainty in how a team will perform in general, but random factors that can occur in each match.”

 
 
Read the Complete Story
 
 
 
 

2018 Risk Conferences

 
 

Seattle - September 13th - Register Now
Boston - September 20th - Register Now
San Diego - November 15th - 16th 
  Our biggest event of the year!  Call for Papers  - Register Now

Join us for insightful conferences featuring software training and industry case studies – invaluable opportunities for broadening knowledge of risk modelling and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Benefits of Palisade Risk Conferences:

  • Get more from @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite – Get exposure to the latest techniques in risk and decision analysis so you can apply them to your own models.  
  • Learn from experts – Sessions are taught by Palisade's consultants and trainers and industry pros.  
  • Networking opportunities – Share ideas and speak with presenters, other attendees, and Palisade staff to gain valuable insight from many backgrounds


 
More about Palisade Conferences
 
 
 

Inside the DecisionTools Suite

On-Demand Webinar: Inside the DecisionTools Suite -
Decision Making Under Uncertainty with TopRank and @RISK

 

Presented by Michelle Jackson

 

In this webinar, we’ll look at how TopRank can be used as a precursor to @RISK by helping you identify which inputs have the greatest impact on your output. Then we will show you how to incorporate what you learn from TopRank into your @RISK model, while giving an entry-level introduction into probabilistic analysis. We will demonstrate how Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques can be applied to your everyday business analyses.

 
Watch the Webinar
   
 
 
 

Example Model: Design Experiments - Weld and Cost Optimization

This @RISK Industrial supply chain model analyzes a metallic burst cup manufactured by welding a disk onto a ring. The model relates the weld strength to process and design factors, models the variation for each factor, and forecasts the product performance in relation to the engineering specifications. An engineer could attempt to reduce or better control the variation within the weld time and amplitude limits. Alternatively, RISKOptimizer can be used to find the optimal process and design targets to minimize the annual cost from defectives.    

» Download This Example Model

» See More Example Models

 
 
 

Article: Analyzing Renewables in a Utility Energy Mix

 
 

Renewables pose real challenges for utility operators, particularly solar and wind power. Renewables such as biomass, geothermal, and hydro, however, are as controllable as fossil fuel plants. How do you account for the uncertainty inherent in the more unpredictable sources of renewable energy? Using DecisionTools Suite products @RISK, Evolver, and RISKOptimizer, the author examines unique ways to approach these challenges from a simple spreadsheet.

 
Download a PDF of the Article
   
 
 
 

EnewsLiveWebinar120.png

 
Live Webinars
Attend an hour-long event to learn how Palisade software works, and ask questions. See the schedule here.

EnewsOnDemandWebinar120.png

 
On-Demand Webinars
Watch a variety of Palisade webinars at your convenience. View a complete listing of on-demand webinars here.
 
The DecisionTools Suite
 

Contact Details

 

Palisade Corporation

130 East Seneca St., Suite 500, Ithaca, NY 14850 USA


sales@palisade.com

www.palisade.com

About Us

 

Palisade Corporation is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

More About Palisade

Facebook Youtube LinkedIn
 
This email was sent to lbohanan@palisade.com. Click here to update your subscription preferences.