Kinder Morgan & Riskcore Ltd use @RISK for $7.4B Trans-Mountain Expansion Project

@RISK Aids SCIRT in New Zealand Earthquake Rebuild


After two devastating earthquakes in 2010 and 2011, and facing a rebuild of immense scale and scope, the New Zealand government and Christchurch City Council established the Stronger Christchurch Infrastructure Rebuild Team (SCIRT) to repair infrastructure. The rebuild would involve more than 700 individual projects across the city repairing and rebuilding underground sewage, storm water and fresh water pipes, wastewater pump stations, as well as roads, bridges and retaining walls.


SCIRT’s job was to provide a cost-effective and efficient vehicle to quickly get the city's civil infrastructure back on its feet. Team Manager Matt Thomas brought in Kerry Mayes to apply a risk framework to the cost estimates. Previous estimates had been done without accounting for uncertainties. For this $2.2 billion project, the team used @RISK.

“While we had asset assessment information for a large portion of the thousands of assets, we needed a way to allow for all the different levels of uncertainty,” says Mayes. “That way we could give the best answer to local and national government and allow funding agencies to estimate how much money was going to be required.”

The overall primary benefit from using @RISK for SCIRT was “the confidence it inspired in the decision makers," reports Mayes. “It gave us the ability to assess risk and show decision makers the potential impacts of risk. Without the tools, decision makers often avoid thinking about risk or take overly defensive decisions to avoid risk.”

The decision-maker’s confidence was well-placed. Says Mayes, “Our estimate appears to be within 1-2% of the outcome on a spend of $2.2B spread across over 700 projects and tens of thousands of assets.”

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Combined Cost Schedule

On-Demand Webinar: Generating Combined Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis using @RISK


Presented by Dale Shermon of QinetiQ


This presentation builds from the basics of defining cost and schedule in terms of baseline, uncertainty, and risk. We take the audience through the aggregation of cost and schedule Monte Carlo analysis in @RISK, to consider the combined cost and schedule risk analysis. We will review the combined cost and schedule output and the interpretation of the confidence levels through the application of @RISK. Finally, we'll discuss the realization that 50% cost and 50% schedule confidence does not equate to a combined 50% confidence level.

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Example Model: Six Sigma Design of Experiments with Optimization

This model demonstrates the use of RISKOptimizer in experimental design. RISKOptimizer combines Monte Carlo simulation with genetic algorithm-based optimization. Using these two techniques, RISKOptimizer is uniquely capable of solving complex optimization problems that involve uncertainty.

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Running "Out of Process"


With the new 7.5.2 Decision Tools Suite release, many of our software products now run “in process,” meaning they run directly through Microsoft Excel's process instead of routing communication with Excel through a bridge server.  However, it's possible that your build or configuration with Excel may not properly run in process. In this case you are able to set your Palisade software to run out of process and avoid these issues. 

See the full article on the Palisade Knowledge Base to learn how to run your software “out of process.”  

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Palisade Corporation is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

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