@RISK Used to Support Pandemic Preparedness at Mayo Clinic Rochester
A severe influenza pandemic could overwhelm hospitals, but planning guidance that accounts for specifics is lacking. For example, changing bed or ventilator capacity affects staffing, supply, and pharmaceutical needs and vice versa. Previous models did not adequately account for operational chokepoints and bottlenecks, such as emergency department throughput and dynamic staffing patterns.
To address the issue, Mark Abramovich of Interdisciplinary Solutions, LLC, formed a work group including the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHSPH), and Mayo Clinic. They decided to apply Monte Carlo simulation via @RISK. The team gathered epidemiologic variables, historical information such as the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, and particular data from Mayo Clinic Hospital – Rochester as a test case. All this vital data was used to run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations on @RISK, using various combinations of variables to determine resource needs across a spectrum of scenarios.
“Although Monte Carlo simulation cannot identify the single best strategy, it allows the decision maker to understand the range of potential outcomes and how they change based on differing assumptions, and allows for decision making with respect to uncertainty and the user’s risk tolerance,” says Abramovich. Through this approach, he and his team projected supplies needs for a range of scenarios that use up to 100% of Mayo Clinic’s surge capacity of beds and ventilators. The results indicate that there are diminishing patient care benefits for stockpiling on the high side of the range, but that having some stockpile of critical resources, even if it is relatively modest, is most important.
Byron Callies, MSHS, Mayo Clinic’s Director for Clinical & Business Continuity Management, said, “This modeling approach provided a rational basis for informed decision making for our disaster stockpile needs. As a result, by establishing a common level of preparedness based on the modeling outcomes and the organization’s risk tolerance, we were able to align and improve preparedness efforts across multiple functional groups while at the same time being good stewards of the organization’s resources.”
» Read the complete case study here
Austin - April 25th - info coming soon
Join us next month for our conference, in Austin, TX, for a half day of software training and industry case studies. It's an invaluable opportunity for broadening knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.
Live Web Training
Available from the convenience of your workspace.
March 5-6, 10am-2pm EST - Register Now
Get a sound introduction to risk and decision analysis modelling in Excel using the DecisionTools Suite, from the comfort of your desktop. Learn new skills, and ask questions of the presenter. The 8-hour course includes course notes and example files. Credits available.
» Register today for Live Web Training
Modeling the Profitability of a New Product
Excerpted from Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization II by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade Corporation
There are many issues involved in modeling profitability of a new product. By using @RISK you can estimate both the range and average profitability, as well as the riskiness of a new product. In this example, GM explores the possibility of bringing a Batmobile to market. By substituting the uncertainty with probability distribution functions for variables such as Product Development Time, Development Cost, Sales Life, Market Share and others, you can run a simulation and answer the following questions with some degree of certainty:
1. What is the range of the NPV if we were looking to be
2. What is the probability that this project will make its hurdle rate
3. What are the key drivers of this project’s success?
» Download the example files and learn more
Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Evaluating Remedial Alternatives at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site
Betsy Ruffle, et al. Integrated environmental assessment and management 14.1 (2018): 63-78.
A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed to evaluate the range of potential baseline and post remedy health risks to fish consumers at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site (the “Site”). The PRA used probability distributions fit to the same data sets used in the deterministic baseline human health risk assessment (BHHRA) as well as recent sediment and fish tissue data to evaluate the range and likelihood of current baseline cancer risks and noncancer hazards for anglers.
The PRA approach applied here provides a simple but adaptive framework for analysis of risks and remedial options focused on variability in exposures. It can be updated and refined with new data to evaluate and reduce uncertainty, improve understanding of the Site and target populations, and foster informed remedial decision making. @RISK was used to fit distributions and perform simulations for this study.
» Read the full paper here
The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.
What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, BigPicture for mind mapping and data exploration, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.
The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.
» Schools using Palisade software
» Textbooks using Palisade software