ARC Ltd uses @RISK to Inform Catastrophe Insurance Risk Pool in Africa

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» ARC Ltd uses @RISK for
   Catastrophe Insurance Risk
   Pool in Africa

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ARC Ltd uses @RISK to Inform Catastrophe Insurance Risk Pool in Africa
@RISK has been an important tool in the creation of African Risk Capacity Insurance Company Limited (ARC Ltd), Africa’s first sovereign catastrophe insurance risk pool. ARC Ltd has been using @RISK software since the group was first set up in 2013 to support complex modelling of drought losses across Africa for insurance and reinsurance pricing purposes, as well as dynamic financial analysis to model ARC Ltd’s long-term financial sustainability.

Case I: Using @RISK to Simulate Drought
Losses Across Multiple African Countries

ARC Ltd provides insurance against drought risk to African governments. The insurance pays out based on satellite rainfall data that feeds into a drought index which is then converted into an estimated cost of responding to the drought. This is done through ARC Ltd’s software Africa RiskView.

ARC Ltd can therefore calculate what the drought response costs would have been for each African country for the past 30+ years of historic rainfall data. Based on this historic data, ARC Ltd uses @RISK to simulate the drought losses over longer time periods. And based on these simulations, an accurate price for transferring the drought risk to ARC Ltd can be calculated.

Case II: Using @RISK for Dynamic Financial
Analysis of Arc Ltd Appropriate Capital Base

In addition, ARC Ltd also uses @RISK extensively in its Dynamic Financial Analysis (DFA) modelling. ARC Ltd uses DFA to test various portfolios of risk (i.e. different countries and coverages), priced at different rates, with different initial capital and different reinsurance strategies. Other items such as investment return, operational costs and reinsurance pricing can also be varied. Monte Carlo simulation techniques are used to sample a wide variety of possible outcomes for a financial (insurance) entity and provides a probabilistic summary of financial results for a forward-looking window.

@RISK has been a pivotal tool in the growth of Africa’s first sovereign catastrophe insurance risk pool and will continue to be the tool that ARC Ltd turns to in order to maintain long-term financial stability.

» Read the detailed case study
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» ARC Ltd

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Product Spotlight
Streamline with Custom Reports
After you run a simulation, there is typically a need to summarize your results in a streamlined fashion. With @RISK you can utilize the Excel Reports option and choose a layout that is prebuilt, or if you have @RISK 7 you are able to customize those report options to suit your needs. These new Customized Formatted Excel Reports in @RISK enable you to report exactly the simulation results you want, directly in Excel, utilizing a simple interface. Select just the graphs and statistics you want, and rearrange the items with just a few clicks. Your custom report will be automatically formatted for optimal viewing.

Using the example model below, click on the Model worksheet and Start Simulation. After the simulation is complete, click on Excel Reports. A dialog will appear with the predefined options, click on the box to the left of Custom Reports to activate the Custom Report Settings Tab. Then explore the many options that are in the Custom Reports Settings Tab.

» Download the example model


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Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis
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