Putting Pieces Together More Perfectly: @RISK Helps Improve Manufacturing Efficiency for Preformed Line Products

In This Issue
What's New
» Putting Pieces Together More
   Perfectly: @RISK Helps
   Improve Manufacturing
   Efficiency for Preformed
   Line Products

» Mind Mapping Software Blog
   Gives BigPicture Rave

» Palisade Client Discusses
   Project Success
   in Economia

Updates from Palisade
» Palisade's 2015 Regional
   Risk Conferences

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Projecting Oil Prices Under
   Conditions of Uncertainty

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue

2014 Palisade Risk Conferences
An intensive day of networking, software training presented by Palisade trainers and consultants, and real-world case studies presented by industry experts. Join us at an event near you. More dates to come for 2015.

» Melbourne: 21 May
» Rio de Janeiro: 5 May
EMEA & India
» Mumbai: 13 January
» Johannesburg: 12 May
» Madrid: 19 May
» Munich: 18 June
» Oslo: 29 September
» Moscow: 1 October
» Zurich: 6 October
» London: 22 October
» Dubai: 2 November
North America
» Toronto: 23 June
» Chicago: 24 June
» New York: 4 August
» San Fran/San Jose
   25 August
» Calgary 27 August
» New Orleans:
   11-12 November

Regional Seminars
Brisbane July 14-15
Melbourne July 29-30
Perth August 18-19
Sydney: 1-3 September

London: 14-16 July
London: 15-17 September
Amsterdam: 6-8 October
London: 27-29 October

Latin America
Medellin, Colombia:
  21 al 23 de julio
San José, Costa Rica:
  11 al 13 de agosto
México, DF:
  8 al 10 de septiembre
Quito, Ecuador:
  23 al 25 de septiembre

North America
Denver, CO: 4-6 August
Ithaca, NY: 5-6 August
Cincinnati, OH: 11-13 August
Dallas, TX: 22-24 September

Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite

1-2 July, 11am - 3pm ET
1-2 October, 11am - 3pm ET

29-30 October, 11am-3pm EDT

Project Risk Assessment
using @RISK

11-12 August, 11am-3pm EDT

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK

2-3 Sept, 11am-3pm EDT
23-24 Sept, 11am-3pm EDT

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
» Español
» Português
» Deutsch
» Français
» 日本語版
» 中文版

Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

Mind Mapping and Data Exploration for Excel

The DecisionTools Suite

Putting Pieces Together More Perfectly: @RISK Helps Improve Manufacturing Efficiency for Preformed Line Products
Like most countries across the globe, Kuwait faces air pollution issues. To combat these problems, the Kuwait Environment Public Authority (KEPA) works hard to identify and categorize sources that cause, or contribute significantly to air pollution. KEPA created the Kuwait Implementation Plan (KIP) and divided the country into Air Quality Control Zones based on monitored ambient air quality. The United Nations Development program (UNDP) worked with KEPA to create a national emissions inventory that would provide them with a countrywide air modeling capability which would enable a source permit and monitoring program. Brian Freeman, Team Leader for Air Regulatory Management Systems at UNDP, found that Kuwaiti businesses needed to better understand their contribution to air quality, but realized the issue was complex.

Indeed, wind conditions and production output from industrial sources can contribute to a high concentration of pollution in an area. When the weather changes, so can pollution concentration. @RISK became an integral part of the inventory process, allowing for more detailed information, “As part of the analysis, we needed to provide input parameters into complex air dispersion models,” said Freeman. “These parameters included physical dimensions such as stack heights and diameters that were easy to identify. The more important parameters were independent variables such as release rates, temperature, and flow rates. This was where Palisade’s @RISK was particularly helpful. We were able to model the worst-case to best-case scenarios for each parameter in our models to show long-term exposure, as well as contributions from individual sources.”

UNDP now employs @RISK to correlate local industries’ impact on air quality in Kuwait. Using Monte Carlo simulation, UNDP looks at potential ranges of impacts. The analyses can show quite conclusively, for instance, that a particular area with specific companies may not be the sole contributors to poor air quality, and contribute significantly less than initially considered. Freeman concluded, “The ongoing work with KEPA has meant Palisade’s products are a very integral part of the success of this program. Pretty much if we don’t use @RISK at least once a day, it means we’re on vacation.”

  » Read the complete case study

@RISKDesigners would simply look at the
     maximum allowable interference fit
     and spread this between the two external
     vendors, virtually forcing them to try
     to comply with tolerances that may not
     be suited their manufacturing process
Trial Versions

                        Phil Timbrell, Manager of Engineering
                        Services at PLP Australia

Mind Mapping Software Blog Gives
BigPicture Rave Review

BigPicture has garnered an in-depth and enthusiastic review from the Mind Mapping Software Blog, a leading source for news, trends and resources related to visual mapping. Chuck Frey, widely regarded as one of the leading experts on visual mapping and visual thinking, explored the software's numerous features and says, "You'll be very impressed.”

Frey investigates BigPicture's many key features, such as its diagram-building capabilities (“Very cool! This is a capability that you won’t find in any dedicated mind mapping or diagramming program.”); data mapping (“If your eyes glaze over when you look at a large number of columns and rows of data in Excel like I do, you’ll immediately appreciate this aspect of BigPicture."); and its org chart functions (“This promises to be a big time-saver for human resources managers!").

After exploring these flexible features, Frey concludes: "If you’re looking for an affordable, easy-to-use diagramming and mind mapping tool and you already use Excel, then you owe it to yourself to check out BigPicture. I think you’ll be very impressed with its excellent toolset and ease of use. This is backed up by a help file and videos that actually do an excellent job of explaining how to perform common tasks. That’s all too rare today!"

  » Read the full Mind Mapping Software Blog review.
  » Download your complimentary version of BigPicture.

Palisade Client Discusses Project
Success in Economia

Visual Reporting, the Denmark-based business analytical reporting consultancy, used @RISK to help the Danish Government comply with Danish legislation requiring all Government related IT business cases that exceed €1.33m to be risk-assessed.

Laurits Søgaard Nielsen, CEO at Visual Reporting, believes Monte Carlo simulation used within @RISK was integral to the solution that Visual Reporting implemented for the Danish Government, and he discussed that success in the January 2015 issue of Economia, which covers technical accountancy content, business, economics, management and finance. In the piece, Why do IT projects fail?, Nielsen gives his insight:

“The main reason large IT projects fail is that they grow in complexity, and humans are very poor at handling complex tasks,” says Laurits Søgaard Nielsen, CEO of Virtual Reporting. “But often the creation of a business case does not follow best practice and can be severely affected by managers wanting to influence the process of project approval. ‘I want this project to happen’ often outweighs the poor business case.”

With Palisade’s risk and decision analysis tools, complex tasks and projects can be handled with confidence.

  » Read the complete case study here.

Palisade's 2015 Risk Conferences
The Palisade Risk Conferences have brought together risk and decision analysis professionals from Fortune Global 500 corporations to small consulting practices, and across every industry. Join us in a city near you:

New York: 4 Aug Register Now
San Fran/San Jose: 25 Aug Register Now
Calgary: 27 Aug Register Now
Oslo: 29 Sept Register Now
Moscow: 1 Oct Register Now
Zurich: 6 Oct Register Now
London: 22 Oct Register Now
Dubai: 2 Nov Register Now
Our Annual 2-Day Risk Conference will be held in New Orleans, November 11-12, at the Hilton New Orleans Riverside. Register now for our biggest event, with multiple tracks of software training and industry presentations.

  » See the global list of conferences for 2015

Product Spotlight
Add your own Distribution to @RISK
From Palisade's online Knowledge Base

In some instances you may wish to have @RISK draw random numbers from a particular distribution that is not in the Define Distributions dialog. If this holds true for your situation, @RISK does give you the ability to use a formula for the inverse CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function), if a closed form exists. The input to that formula is a RiskUniform(0,1) which provides a randomly selected cumulative probability; then your inverse CDF formula converts that to an x value. Click on the link below to learn more.

 » Download the example model and step-by-step instructions


Introduction to BigPicture

Presented by: Palisade
   01 July - 10am EDT-Eastern US / 4pm CEST   » Register Now
   09 July - 10am BST-Eastern US / 11am CEST   » Register Now

Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by: Palisade
   09 July - 11am CEST-Central Europe / 5am EDT   » Register Now
   17 July - 1pm EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now
   13 Aug. - 11am CEST-Central Europe / 5am EDT   » Register Now
   19 Aug. - 7pm CEST-Central Europe / 1pm EDT   » Register Now

Oil and Gas Applications of @RISK and DecisionTools Suite
   Presented by: Palisade
   13 Oct. - 1pm EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now

Cost Estimation and Risk Registers using @RISK
   Presented by: Rafael Hartke, Palisade
   08 Dec. - 1pm EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con @RISK y DecisiónTools Suite
   Presentador: Manuel Carmona, Palisade

   8 septiembre - 10am BST / 11am CEST   » Regístrate Ahora

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
avec @RISK et DécisionTools Suite

   Presentador: Manuel Carmona, Palisade

   6 octobre - 11am CEST-Central Europe/ 5am EDT   » Inscrivez-vous

Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse
mit @RISK und der DecisionTools Suite

   Presenter: Sascha Stange, Palisade

   29. September - 11am CEST-Central Europe/ 5am EDT   » Jetzt Registrieren

» See complete Webcast schedule


The Global Leader in Risk
and Decision Analysis

Palisade is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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