Defense Milestones undergo Monte Carlo Simulation—Making for a More Accurate Schedule

In This Issue
What's New
» Defense Milestones
   undergo Monte Carlo
   Simulation using @RISK

» @RISK plays a part in finance
   analysis for SpiderMan2 and
   other movie favorites

Updates from Palisade
» Palisade's 2015 Regional
   Risk Conferences

» BigPicture Beta Period
   Extended until June 1st

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Projecting Oil Prices Under
   Conditions of Uncertainty

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue

2014 Palisade Risk Conferences
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Decision-Making and
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The DecisionTools Suite

Defense Milestones undergo Monte Carlo Simulation using @RISK
"The best success we could ask for!" -Jim Aksel, Principal, ProjectPMO

Meeting schedule milestones in a timely manner is paramount in any industry, but particularly important in those working with the United States Department of Defense, where deliverables can be a matter of national safety, and where program delays can become very expensive. A major aerospace company was contracted by the U.S. Navy to build defensive missiles, and was required to provide accurate estimations of their timeline and deliverables. Jim Aksel, (Principal) at ProjectPMO, helped the aerospace company deal with schedule risk analysis for their project. Thanks to using @RISK in conjunction with Microsoft Project, Aksel was able to provide the company a rock-solid model proving that their schedule estimation was reliable.

Previously the company used an outdated schedule risk analysis method. "They didn’t have a Monte Carlo simulation tool," says Aksel. "They were adding duration margins to many tasks without knowing if that amount of time was correct or to the correct tasks. It was simply a guesstimation." By cutting out the ‘junk’ tasks in the project schedule, and using @RISK to more accurately determine the durations between milestones, Aksel and his team were able to identify estimates that were six to eight weeks later than they needed to be and shorten them when appropriate.

Aksel describes his favorite feature of @RISK—the fact that the formulas, data, and models are all accessible and viewable in one place. "It lets me see what’s going on where," he says. "I’m able to see everything in going on in one place, so there’s less mystery. I showed the team the inputs and made sure there was consensus from everyone on all the inputs. For this particular project, Aksel explains, the model matched fairly closely to the engineering team’s original estimates with only a few exceptions. "It helped solidify that we had true belief in our logic," says Aksel. "That’s the best success we could ask for!"

  » Read the complete case study

With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility: @RISK plays a part in finance analysis for SpiderMan 2 and other movie favorites

Movies such as SpiderMan 2, The Interview, and 22 Jump Street have all benefitted from @RISK’s quantitative risk analysis—thanks to Benjamin Waisbren. Waisbren, a partner at the law firm Winston & Strawn, is also the President and a shareholder of LSC Film Corporation, which funds major film productions—such as V for Vendetta, Blood Diamond, and 300. In his role as a film financier, Waisbren uses @RISK in all his negotiations.

Last year, Waisbren relied on @RISK to navigate a $200 million co-financing deal with Sony. The deal gave Waisbren’s team, LStar Capital, a stake in nearly all of Sony’s movies. Waisbren says the success was in part thanks to Palisade’s risk analysis software: "I am happy to say that @RISK played a very significant part in my work on that deal," he says. "I did the modeling behind it, and because of @RISK, we did not hire any outside advisor or consultant." Additionally, because of the risk modeling tool, "our closing costs were about 20 million dollars lower than other deals." After closing the agreement, Waisbren was then asked to be manager of the new film fund for LStar Capital.

Since then, Waisbren has continued to use @RISK to do statistical analysis and risk quantification on the volatility of the motion picture industry. For example, the software has helped him to make uncannily accurate predictions around how much a film will make on its opening day or weekend—or, it can help him predict how much money a film production will burn through in a certain number of months. In short, it’s proven itself invaluable: "I’m really grateful for this product—it has provided a substantial competitive advantage in this business," he says. "I’m a huge believer in this tool."

  » Sony's $200m deal

Updates from Palisade

Palisade's 2015 Regional Risk Conferences
The Palisade Regional Risk Conferences have brought together risk and decision analysis professionals from Fortune Global 500 corporations to small consulting practices, and across every industry. Here are a few cities that we will be visiting this year:

Rio de Janeiro: 5 May Register Now
Johannesburg: 12 May Register Now
Madrid: 19 May Register Now
Melbourne: 21 May Register Now
Munich: 18 June Register Now
Recently Added:
Chicago: 25 June Register Now
New York: 4 August
Calgary: 10 September

  » See the global list of conferences for 2015

BigPicture Beta Period Extended
Palisade's new mind mapping, data exploration, and diagramming software, BigPicture, is available free of cost during the Beta testing period which is set to expire on June 1st.

Use BigPicture in the beginning stages of your modeling to create strategic maps to help grasp the relationships between your variables before implementing your @RISK model. Group your data by creating a data map in BigPicture to help you see interesting concepts without having to scroll through columns of data. Report findings of your @RISK models to upper level management through BigPicture's slide show capabilities, that allows you to walk your audience through the steps you took to come up with your end results.

Try BigPicture today to see how you can incorporate it into your current modeling routines!

  » 5-star review of BigPicture
  » Learn more about BigPicture, and download a trial version

Product Spotlight
Projecting Oil Prices Under Conditions
of Uncertainty

From Section 14 of Energy Risk Modeling by Roy Nersesian, published by Palisade

Projecting oil prices under conditions of uncertainty has always been and will always remain a challenge. What makes this more of a challenge is the acceptance that the oil and possibly other commodity and stock markets do not behave in a random fashion generating normal distribution patterns. In this example, a partially manipulated/partially random model for oil prices incorporating uncertainty generates U-shaped distributions. These are difficult to model with a single best fitting distribution. Download the example model and step-by-step instructions to learn a methodology for modeling a U-shaped distribution by creating three segments and obtaining the best fitting distribution for each segment using @RISK.

 » Download the example model and step-by-step instructions


Introduction to BigPicture
Presented by: Palisade
   17 April - 12pm EDT-Eastern US / 6pm CEST   » Register Now
   23 April - 8pm EDT-Eastern US / 8am AWST 24 April   » Register Now
   07 May - 1pm EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now
   15 May - 10pm EDT-Eastern US / 4pm CEST   » Register Now
   20 May - 10am EDT-Eastern US / 4pm CEST   » Register Now
   26 May - 1pm EDT-Eastern US / 7pm CEST   » Register Now

Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by: Palisade
   14 May - 11am CEST-Central Europe / 5am EDT   » Register Now
   09 July - 11am CEST-Central Europe / 5am EDT   » Register Now
   13 August - 11am CEST-Central Europe / 5am EDT   » Register Now

Introduction to Risk Analysis using @RISK
(Oil and Gas Applications Focus)

Presented by: Palisade
   11 June - 5am EDT-Eastern US / 11am CEST   » Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con
@RISK y DecisiónTools Suite - en español

   Presentador: Manuel Carmona, Palisade

   12 mayo - 11am CEST-Central Europe / 5am EDT   » Registrar

» See complete Webcast schedule


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Palisade is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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