Revay and Associates uses @RISK to Lead Alberta Airport Enterprise Risk Assessment

In This Issue
What’s New
» @RISK Used to Simulate
   NCAA Tournament

» Japanese Food Corporation
   and the Univ of Tokyo Employ
   @RISK to Ensure Safety
   of Eggs

» Palisade EMEA Risk
   Conferences in Copenhagen,
   Amsterdam, and Dubai
   Starting Next Week

Case Study
» @RISK, PrecisionTree
   Critical in Preparing
   for Volcano Eruption

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Modeling Daily Expenses of
   a Business Traveler

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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2014 Palisade Risk Conferences
The 2014 Risk Conferences are "must attend" events for quantitative risk and decision analysis professionals. Join us for an intensive day of software training presented by Palisade trainers and consultants, and real-world case studies presented by industry experts.
» Copenhagen: 31 March
» Amsterdam: 3 April
» Dubai: 8 April
» Bogotá: 13 May
» Madrid: 20 May
» Perth: 19 June
» Brisbane: 18 September
» London: 7 October
» Frankfurt: 9 October
» Johannesburg: 14 October
» Melbourne: 4 December

Regional Seminars
Brisbane: 8-9 April
Bangkok: 21-23 May
Perth: 16-18 June
Beijing: 25-26 June

Brasília: 9-11 de abril
São Paulo: 14-16 de maio
Rio de Janeiro: 28-30 de maio

Dubai: 6-7 April
Johannesburg: 15-17 April
London: 22-24 April
Moscow: 23-25 April
Madrid: 21-22 May
London: 3-5 June
London: 19-20 June *
* Special Oil and Gas Focus

Latin America
Santiago de Chile:
  2 al 4 de abril
Medellín: 23 al 24 de abril
Lima, Perú: 6 al 8 de mayo
México, DF: 13 al 15 de mayo

North America
Chicago: 15-17 April
Los Angeles: 21-22 April
Houston: 22-24 April *
San Francisco: 23-25
New York: 6-8 May **
Calgary: 4-6 June *
Toronto: 9-11 June
Boston: 10-12 June
  * Special Oil and Gas Focus
** Special Finance and Banking Focus


Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using DecisionTools Suite

10-11 April, 9am-1pm ET
24-25 April, 9am-1pm ET


Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
» Español
» Português
» Deutsch
» Français
» 日本語版
» 中文版

Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite

@RISK Used to Simulate NCAA Tournament
With this year's offer of a billion dollars from Warren Buffet to the person with a perfect NCAA bracket, it is no surprise that people turned to simulation models to increase their odds of picking the right teams. Statistics experts and long-time users of Palisade software, Drs. Chris Albright and Wayne Winston, have been using @RISK and Monte Carlo simulation to assess the probabilities of different teams winning the NCAA tournament for quite some time. By using computer ratings, they simulate the tournament 10,000+ times to see which teams will come out on top.

In an article on Yahoo Sports' website on March 18th, Wayne Winston correctly stated, "I think Iowa/Tennessee-winner plays UMass in the first round. I think the Iowa/Tennessee-winner will win, and Pittsburg, Colorado – I would tell your viewers I would pick Pittsburg over Colorado as a strong upset." He also predicts that Arizona will be the last man standing.

“Usually when you run the odds on the final four right before the tournament begins, you would find out one team has over 20 percent chance to win and nobody else has over a 10 percent chance to win,” Winston said. “So, the team that I’ve got with a 25 or 26 percent chance to win at this point is Arizona.”

Try it yourself! We have provided Chris Albright's 2014 NCAA simulation model designed for @RISK, complete with 2014 Sagarin ratings. As for the odds of a "perfect bracket", according to Wayne Winston it is the same as flipping a coin and getting heads 37 times in a row.

 » Download the sample 2014 NCAA model
 » Yahoo Sports: "Picking the 'perfect bracket': UH professor
    weighs in on March Madness"

 » More about 'NCAA Predictions via Simulation' in Winston's
    blog on The Huffington Post


Japanese Food Corporation Kewpie and the University of Tokyo Employ @RISK to Ensure Safety of Eggs

Liquid eggs are used as an ingredient in many foods around the world. The risk of Listeria bacteria in eggs, which can lead to illness or even death, is a serious threat to a crucial food source. Kewpie Corporation, a major Japanese producer of liquid eggs, researched the risks of these bacteria in cooperation with the University of Tokyo. The researchers used @RISK software to accurately measure the risks, resulting in vital findings for the food safety industry.

 » Read the full case study

Palisade 2014 Risk Conferences

Palisade EMEA Risk Conferences in
Copenhagen, Amsterdam, and Dubai
Starting Next Week

In their ninth year, the Palisade Risk Conferences have become “must attend” events for quantitative risk and decision analysis professionals. The Copenhagen, Amsterdam, and Dubai conferences are fast approaching and the Spanish-language Bogotá and Madrid schedules are set. Each day promises a full slate of intensive software training by Palisade trainers, in-depth looks at risk modelling from industry experts, networking opportunities, and the chance to review your own model with Palisade consultants.

View the schedules for upcoming Risk Conferences:

Other 2014 dates include Perth, Brisbane, London, Frankfurt, Johannesburg, and Melbourne, with more dates to be announced soon.

@RISK As an introduction to the software, I
      thought this conference was eye-opening.
      As I get more familiar with the software, I
      can see future conferences being valuable
      in honing my skills and learning new tricks
      and different perspectives on using the
Trial Versions

                        Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI
                        Division of Energy and Mineral Development


Case Study
@RISK, PrecisionTree Critical in
Preparing for Volcano Eruption

Like many analysts who use Palisade software, Willy Aspinall is faced with a mountain of data. But he is also faced with a mountain of molten lava. A British physicist who specializes in risk analysis of earthquakes and volcano eruptions, Willy has an ongoing assignment on the Caribbean island of Montserrat-to keep tabs on the Soufriere Hills volcano and the risks it poses to the inhabitants of the island. This means continuous modeling, with myriad variables. Not surprisingly, Willy, as a long-time Palisade customer, relies on @RISK and PrecisionTree.

 » Read the Soufriere Hills volcano case study
 » See also: "The DecisionTools Suite plays pivotal part in mitigating
    risks associated with volcanic eruptions in Guatemala"


Product Spotlight
Modeling Daily Expenses of
a Business Traveler

This model simulates the daily expenses of a business traveler who faces uncertainty each day on whether he makes a trip, and if so, the miles, miles per hour, miles per gallon, and price per gallon for the trip. Its outputs are total cost and total hours driven for a month, and it uses the RiskCollect function to enable sensitivity analysis of these outputs to "inputs" of interest, such as the average miles per gallon per trip.

 » Download the example model

Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using
@RISK and The DecisionTools Suite

Presented by: Palisade
   10 April - 5am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)   » Register Now
   15 May - 5am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)   » Register Now

Insurance and Reinsurance Applications of @RISK:
Examples from Agroasamex and the World Bank

Presented by: Luisarturo Castellanos, CatRiskMexico/Palisade Corp.
   06 June - 11am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)   » Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


The Global Leader in Risk
and Decision Analysis

Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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