@RISK Modeling Tips
@RISK Used to Simulate NCAA Tournament
In an article on Yahoo Sports' website on March 18th, Wayne Winston correctly stated, "I think Iowa/Tennessee-winner plays UMass in the first round. I think the Iowa/Tennessee-winner will win, and Pittsburg, Colorado – I would tell your viewers I would pick Pittsburg over Colorado as a strong upset." He also predicts that Arizona will be the last man standing.
“Usually when you run the odds on the final four right before the tournament begins, you would find out one team has over 20 percent chance to win and nobody else has over a 10 percent chance to win,” Winston said. “So, the team that I’ve got with a 25 or 26 percent chance to win at this point is Arizona.”
Try it yourself! We have provided Chris Albright's 2014 NCAA simulation model designed for @RISK, complete with 2014 Sagarin ratings. As for the odds of a "perfect bracket", according to Wayne Winston it is the same as flipping a coin and getting heads 37 times in a row.
» Download the sample 2014 NCAA model
Liquid eggs are used as an ingredient in many foods around the world. The risk of Listeria bacteria in eggs, which can lead to illness or even death, is a serious threat to a crucial food source. Kewpie Corporation, a major Japanese producer of liquid eggs, researched the risks of these bacteria in cooperation with the University of Tokyo. The researchers used @RISK software to accurately measure the risks, resulting in vital findings for the food safety industry.
In their ninth year, the Palisade Risk Conferences have become “must attend” events for quantitative risk and decision analysis professionals. The Copenhagen, Amsterdam, and Dubai conferences are fast approaching and the Spanish-language Bogotá and Madrid schedules are set. Each day promises a full slate of intensive software training by Palisade trainers, in-depth looks at risk modelling from industry experts, networking opportunities, and the chance to review your own model with Palisade consultants.
View the schedules for upcoming Risk Conferences:
As an introduction to the software, I
Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI
Insurance and Reinsurance Applications of @RISK:
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