@RISK Modeling Tips
Palisade Software Plays Major Role
In 2012, MegaFon increased and formalized its level of qualitative analysis and forecasting, as well as put in place a process that would integrate risk management with its budgeting and investment planning. The aim was to provide the management team with insights that enabled informed decision-making to increase its capital expenditure efficiency.
This Russian telecom giant has also used @RISK and TopRank to help make informed decisions regarding major construction projects. Each year MegaFon needs to plan for the continuous upgrading of its network. Projects include building new antenna, installing the latest equipment and laying fiber optic cable. In 2012, MegaFon made the decision to invest in a large construction project with the aim of minimizing its operating costs and improving network quality and control over technical operations. @RISK allowed MegaFon to use graphs to show easily how NPV and cash flows could change over time, and the probabilities of those changes occurring, rather than the static number that they would have had to rely on without the risk analysis tool.
It doesn't stop there, future plans for MegaFon’s risk management programme include developing it to enable the company to analyze various risks through modelling. For example, as part of an exchange rate risk mitigation plan, MegaFon plans to analyze the different derivatives they can purchase by simulating different scenarios and exchange rates to provide a clearer picture of potential losses and gains.
Palisade's decision support software is a
Dr. Li gives two examples on how the software is used in his teaching and research. One of which involves a study of pricing risk and decision-making when introducing a new product to the market. The second example involves Dr. Li's use of the software in his course work. He demonstrates how the software can be applied when determining the influences of various factors on tolerances in car engine design.
» Download the example model
Einführung zur Risiko - & Entscheidungsanalyse mit
Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions avec
Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using
The Cure for the Flaw of Averages, Using Palisade DecisionTools Suite to Visualize Risk and Uncertainty
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