E-Focus: CH2M HILL Subsidiary Halcrow uses @RISK to Assess Infrastructure Flood Risks

In This Issue
What’s New
» Hitachi Solutions uses the
   @RISK Developer Kit to
   Customize their Risk Analyses

» Risk Professionals Gather
   in Vegas for Palisade’s
   2013 Risk Conference

» Wall Street Journal Highlights
   Palisade and Role of Monte
   Carlo Simulation in Evaluating
   Green Technology Risks

Case Study
» University of London and EpiX
   Analytics Teach @RISK in
   Health and Food Safety
   Postgraduate Certificate

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Price Evolution in Markov Chain

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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2013 Palisade Risk Conferences
Risk experts from 6 continents joined us for the 2013 Risk Conference series. We'll announce our 2014 locations soon. We hope you will join us!
» Santiago de Chile: 19 March
» São Paulo: 21 March
» Johannesburg: 25 April
» Tokyo: 14 May
» Shanghai: 16 May
» London: 11 June
» Frankfurt: 13 June
» Brisbane: 27 August
» Perth: 29 August
» Moscow: 14 October
» Paris: 12 November
» Milan: 14 November
» Las Vegas: 20-21 November

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Melbourne: 22-23 January

» EMEA & India
Mumbai: 25-26 November
London: 3-5 December
Milan: 10-12 December
London: 28-30 January
Munich: 4-6 March

» Latin America
México D.F.: 28 al 30 de enero

» North America
Los Angeles: 3-4 December
Houston: 14-16 January
Ottawa: 4-6 February
Atlanta: 18-20 February
Washington DC: 4-6 March


Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
» Español
» Português
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» 日本語版
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Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite

Intel and the Intel logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.

Hitachi Solutions uses the @RISK Developer Kit to Customize their Risk Analyses in the Manufacturing Industry
There are a wide variety of risks in the manufacturing industry, including fluctuating variables such as demand, price, and foreign exchange. The Planning Department of Hitachi Solutions East Japan, Ltd. is responsible for taking these risks into account when analyzing supply chain management, production, and sales & inventory planning. For example, the amount of supply (production and procurement) is decided based on demand forecasts. If the forecast is wrong and there is a supply shortage, then the company will miss opportunities to increase sales. If there is too much supply, then there are inventory or disposal costs. Price and currency fluctuations are also important factors for risk management in their sector, and the improvement of forecast accuracy through risk analysis is essential to mitigate these risks.

Hitachi has chosen Palisade products to streamline their analyses. By utilizing the functionality of the @RISK Developer Kit, Hitachi has incorporate risk analysis functions and techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation, into their own high level stand-alone GUI (graphical user interface) outside of the spreadsheet environment. They are now able to read data from another system and visualize production and inventory conditions, while also incorporating @RISK’s excellent risk analysis functions. Through the use of tornado diagrams, they can understand the effects on profitability based on which product is produced or sold at what time, and observe the overall situation for each product.

 » Read the full case study
 » More on @RISK Developer Kit
 » More on @RISK
 » More on Hitachi Solutions

Risk Professionals Gather in Vegas for Palisade’s 2013 Risk Conference2013 Palisade Risk Conference

The Palisade’s 2013 Risk Conference series concluded with a 2-day event in Las Vegas last week. Around 170 decision-makers from a wide range of industries gathered at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino for software presentations and industry case studies from CH2M Hill, Westinghouse, Lockheed Martin, Intel, Premera Blue Cross, Tennessee Valley Authority, and dozens of others. Participants were also able to learn from software training sessions, and meet with Palisade consultants in one-on-one Expert Sessions.

Brian Maturi, Director of Risk Management at BorgWarner, delivered the keynote address. Mr. Maturi described the successful implementation of a capital appropriations model that is used by around 300 people in 19 countries around the world. Maturi and BorgWarner worked with Palisade’s Custom Development team to incorporate @RISK functionality into the model so that non-expert users could easily input data, and obtain standardized reports for business managers.

The 2013 Risk Conference series took place in over a dozen cities covering 6 continents, and brought together hundreds of risk analysis professionals. We will announce 2014 conference dates soon, and hope you will be able to join us.

Some quotes from the 2013 Las Vegas event:

"Excellent opportunity to explore all aspects
  of risk analytics!"

Kurt Carson, Senior Quant Analyst
   in ERM group, Chelan PUD

"Excellent conference. Very informative.
  Great topics."

Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk
   Management at CenterPoint Energy

"Great conference!"
Matt Rosenberg, RoseCap Investment Advisors

"A valuable and educative experience."
Richard Horsfall, Consultant

"Excellent learning and networking opportunity."
Mike Wallace, Consultant

"Very good conference with good usage of time."
Mark Mendonca, Program Risk Management,
   Ernst & Young

 » See the conference program, read testimonials, and more
 » Stay connected! Join the Palisade LinkedIn Group

Wall Street Journal Highlights Palisade
and Role of Monte Carlo Simulation in Evaluating Green Technology Risks

The Wall Street Journal recently published an article entitled “Are There Red Flags in Green Construction?” by Joe Mullich. This article highlights the fact that new risks can result as green options - such as renewable energy and environmentally friendly construction – become the norm. Palisade’s Randy Heffernan is quoted in the article, citing risks we’ve seen in the green construction industry. Mitigation strategies include the use of Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.

 » Read the full article

Case Study
University of London and EpiX Analytics
Teach @RISK in Health and Food Safety
Postgraduate Certificate

Risk analysis is increasingly being used to support decisions relevant to national food safety and animal health policies as well as international trade agreements, with an overall goal of reducing the probability and impact of diseases in animals and humans. This has led to a growing demand for suitably qualified risk analysts and cutting-edge risk analysis practices in health and food safety.

With a long track record in delivering quantitative risk analysis training to the health, epidemiology and food safety communities, EpiX Analytics has teamed up with the Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group of the University of London - Royal Veterinary College in London, UK to launch an academic Postgraduate Certificate in Risk Analysis in Health and Food Safety. The Certificate is the first recognized qualification in risk analysis in health and food safety, awarded by the University of London and utilizes @RISK to provide this training.

 » Read the full case study

Product Spotlight
Price Evolution in Markov Chain
A Markov chain is a process observed through time where the probability distribution of the next state of the process, given the current state, is independent of the past states. When dealing with Markov chains, it is always interesting to see whether future statistics depend much on the starting state.

This @RISK example model illustrates the evolution of prices through time. It assumes that there is an underlying process, such as the state of the economy, that follows a Markov chain with states 1, 2, and 3. Then for any given state, the change in price is normally distributed with mean and standard deviation that depend on the state.

 » Download the example model
    (Minimum edition: @RISK 6.0 Standard)


Introduction to Risk Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by: Aman Bajaj
   28 November - 10am GMT (Greenwich Mean Time)
  » Register Now

Exploring Oil and Gas Applications of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite: Examples from Petrobras and Others
Presented by: Rafael Hartke
   19 December - 11am EST (Eastern Standard Time)
  » Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


The Global Leader in Risk
and Decision Analysis

Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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