University of London and EpiX Analytics
Teach @RISK in Health and Food Safety

Risk analysis is increasingly being used to support decisions relevant to national food safety and animal health policies as well as international trade agreements, with an overall goal of reducing the probability and impact of diseases in animals and humans. This has led to a growing demand for suitably qualified risk analysts and cutting-edge risk analysis practices in health and food safety.

With a long track record in delivering quantitative risk analysis training to the health, epidemiology and food safety communities, EpiX Analytics has teamed up with the Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group of the University of London - Royal Veterinary College in London, UK to launch an academic Postgraduate Certificate in Risk Analysis in Health and Food Safety. The Certificate is the first recognized qualification in risk analysis in health and food safety, awarded by the University of London and utilizes @RISK to provide this training.

The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way for students.

An Introduction to Real Options: Modeling a Gold Mine Lease and Expansion
Excerpted from Decision Making Under Uncertainty with
RISKOptimizer

Suppose the uncertainty concerning an investment decision deals primarily with risk involving the price of a commodity. Assume the current price of gold is \$400 per ounce. The price of gold evolves through time as a Lognormal random variable with an annual volatility of 30%. The current risk-free rate is 10%. It costs \$300 per ounce to extract gold, so we will only extract gold during a year in which the price exceeds \$300. Up to 10,000 ounces of gold can be mined and sold each year. Assuming cash flows occur at the end of each year, use the provided example files and @RISK to value a 10 year lease on this gold mine.

With easy to use features, @RISK is a
powerful tool used in decision support. Its
user friendly interface helps facilitate the
teaching of complex mathematical
concepts to professionals from a wide
range of backgrounds, from the advanced
modeler to the occasional Excel user that
has never worked in quantitative risk
analysis.

Dr. Francisco Zagmutt,
Managing Partner at EpiX Analytics

Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2012, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:

 Arizona State University Bishop's University California State University, Fresno Chicago State University Cornell University Ferrum College Penn State Great Valley University of Delaware University of Houston - Clear Lake University of Minnesota Washington University Western Washington University Worcester Polytechnic Institute

International:

 ALBA Graduate Business School - Greece Christian-Albrechts-Universitaet zu Kiel - Germany CUNEF - Spain Hochschule fьr Technik und Wirtschaft Dresden - Germany Hochschule Zittau/Goerlitz - Germany Hoegskolan i Gaevle - Sweden IEF - Institut d’Estudis Financers - Spain INSEAD - Singapore Institucion Universitaria Esumer - Colombia Instituto Superior Tecnico - Portugal Instituto Tecnologico - Mexico Instituto Tecnologico Metropol - Colombia ITESM Campus Monterrey - Mexico ITESM Campus Chihuahua - Mexico Lebanese American University - Lebanon LUMS Lahore University of Management Sciences - Pakistan Lund University - Sweden Management Development Institute of Singapore - Singapore Middle East Technical University - Turkey Reykjavik University - Iceland Royal Holloway University of London - United Kingdom The Petroleum Institute - United Arab Emirates University of Queensland - Australia Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha - Spain Universidad de Medellнn - Colombia Universidad de Talca - Chile Universidad de Valencia - Spain Universidad del Pacifico - Peru Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de Mexico - Mexico Universitдt Wьrzburg - Germany University of Portsmouth - United Kingdom

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:

 Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both network lab and laptop installation. Palisade offers a complimentary Live Web Training session to all instructors who order a Course License. » Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store. » Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks. These are time- and model-limited licenses. »

Get DecisionTools Suite 6 for your course by contacting:

800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000

Correlating Input Variables
Two input distributions are correlated when their samples should be “related” — that is, the value sampled for one distribution should affect the value sampled for the other. This correlation is necessary when, in reality, two input variables move to some degree in tandem. For example, imagine a model with two input distributions — Interest Rate and Housing Starts. These two inputs are related, as the value sampled for Housing Starts depends on the value sampled for Interest Rate. A high Interest Rate would tend to cause a low value for Housing Starts, and conversely a low Interest Rate would tend to cause a high value for Housing Starts. If this correlation were not accounted for in sampling, some iterations of the simulation would reflect nonsensical conditions that could not occur in reality — such as a high Interest Rate and a high value for Housing Starts.

The Define Correlations command allows the samples of input probability distributions to be correlated. When the Define Correlations icon is clicked, a matrix is displayed which includes a row and column for each probability distribution in the currently selected cells in Excel. Correlation coefficients between the probability distributions can be entered using this matrix.

The DecisionTools Suite is a key component in major textbooks in business, OR, and engineering.

Choosing Safety: A Guide to Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis in Complex, High Consequence Systems
By Michael V. Frank

The technological age has seen a range of catastrophic and preventable failures, often as a result of decisions that did not appropriately consider safety as a factor in design and engineering. Through more than a dozen practical examples from the author's experience in nuclear power, aerospace, and other potentially hazardous facilities, Choosing Safety brings together probabilistic risk assessment and decision analysis using real case studies and PrecisionTree software. For managers, project leaders, engineers, scientists, and interested students, Michael V. Frank focuses on methods for making logical decisions about complex engineered systems and products in which safety is a key factor in design - and where failure can cause great harm, injury, or death.

The DecisionTools Suite is part of complex analyses published in white papers.

Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis
David T. Hulett, Ph.D, Hulett & Associates, LLC
Michael R. Nosbisch, CCC, PSP

This paper describes an improvement in cost risk analysis over the traditional methods that address cost risk without explicit reference or, indeed, any reference at all to the project schedule and its risk. We now know how to represent the role that schedule risk has in driving project cost, because the longer some resources such as engineering or construction work the more they cost. @RISK and Monte Carlo simulation is the most commonly used approach to analyzing the impact of multiple risks on the overall project schedule or cost risk. Simulating a resource-loaded project schedule derives consistent results for the project schedule and cost in each iteration. The results can be used to conduct a risk mitigation exercise to improve the project’s prospects for success.

Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Univ. of London and EpiX
Analytics Teach @RISK
in Health and Food Safety

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Announcing 2014 Risk Conference dates in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Join us for a full day of real-world case studies presented by industry experts, and practical software training presented by Palisade trainers and consultants.

» Copenhagen: 31 March
» Amsterdam: 3 April
» Dubai: 8 April
» London: 7 October
» Frankfurt: 9 October
» Johannesburg: 14 October

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

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