Palisade Publishes New Book by Roy Nersesian on Energy Risk Modeling
Roy Nersesian is a professor in the Leon Hess School of Business at Monmouth University, and an adjunct professor for the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. His new book, Energy Risk Modeling is loaded with real-life examples that demonstrate how @RISK, PrecisionTree, and Evolver can be used to make better financial decisions within the oil and gas, electricity, and renewable energy industries. Much of Energy Risk Modeling is a result of Professor Nersesian’s Energy Modeling course at Columbia University.
Roy Nersesian’s easy-to-read, step-by-step approach makes his techniques accessible to anyone who uses Microsoft Excel. All examples covered in the book are provided in Excel spreadsheets.
Topics covered in the book include:
- Modeling daily electricity demand amidst uncertainty in the deregulation, time of year and day.
- Optimizing an oil refinery to maximize profits and valuing a real option of purchasing a coal-fired plant using Evolver, shown to have a greater predictive efficacy than Excel’s built-in Solver.
- Modeling solar panel and wind turbine power outputs by factoring cloud cover, temperature, time of day, and wind speed, respectively, while optimizing said uncontrollable energy sources with uncontrollable demand to closely match daily energy demand with power generated.
- Selecting which kind of energy plant to meet incremental demand based on modeling of capacity, costs, energy output of each source, and taxes and capital recovery factor.
- Projecting oil consumption with trend/regression analysis and oil prices under conditions of uncertainty.
» Join us on September 18th for a complimentary live webcast
with Roy Nersesian about Energy Risk Modeling
» Read more about Energy Risk Modeling
» More about Professor Nersesian, his courses, and publications
@RISK is a wonderful tool which helps
business people make accurate, efficient
financial projections, as well as accurately
establish which risks their investments are
Dr. Gabriel Rovayo,
Instituto de Desarrollo Empresarial, Ecuador
Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2012, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:
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||Bonn-Rhine-Sieg University - Germany |
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Centros Culturales de Mexico AC - Mexico
Dipl. Ing. Bohumil Ullmann - Czech Republic
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FH Südwestfalen - Germany
Fundação Coppetec - Brazil
Fundação Getulio Vargas - Brazil
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Westfälische Hochschule - Germany
There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:
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The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way. Each month we feature an example or tip illustrating how students can gain "real world" benefits by implementing quantitative analysis.
Simulating a New Product:
The Hippo Example
Excerpted from Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization,
by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade
A company makes three models of a product: premium, standard, and economy. The standard product sells for $70 with a manufacturing cost of $40. A premium model has additional features with a cost of $50 whereas the economy model lacks certain features with a cost of $35. The question is what should be the price for the
premium and economy models.
Download the example spreadsheet and
The DecisionTools Suite is included in dozens of major textbooks, and is a key component of more titles every year. Authors use the DecisionTools Suite to illustrate key analytical concepts and build examples demonstrating the value of quantitative techniques in business, OR, and engineering.
Making Hard Decisions with
By Robert Clemen and Terrence Reilly
This is a special version of Robert Clemen's best-selling text, Making Hard Decisions. This straight-forward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. It fully incorporates and implements the DecisionTools Suite, including @RISK, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools software, thus making the text more useful and relevant to students of business and engineering.
» Learn more from the publisher
» See a list of books bundled with Palisade software
Professors, PhD candidates, practitioners and others often use the DecisionTools Suite as part of a complex analysis to address important problems. These analyses are published in white papers. Each month we will feature a different academic white paper addressing a wide range of issues.
Risk and Return for Bioenergy Crops under Alternative Contracting Arrangements
James A. Larson, Burton C. English, Lixia He
Department of Agricultural Economics,
The University of Tennessee
Farmers, agribusiness, policymakers, and others have shown considerable interest in the potential for on-farm production of biomass for ethanol production. As part of this study, a 99 year set of real, detrended, and correlated prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, wheat straw, corn stover, switch grass, nitrogen fertilizer, and diesel fuel were simulated using @RISK.
Read the full paper here
Experts using Palisade software share examples and teaching tips. Register online at no charge.
Energy Risk Modeling as a Teaching
Tool, and Overview of Book
To be presented by Roy Nersesian
September 18, 2013, 11:00am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)
Get a first-hand introduction to Energy Risk Modeling from author Roy Nersesian. In this complimentary live webcast, learn how Professor Nersesian utilized the contents of the book to build a course. There will also be an overview of the book for individuals in the field of energy who may want to utilize @RISK products in their work. Energy Risk Modeling has been written in a way to spur ideas on how @RISK products can be used in various aspects of energy from fossil fuels to renewables. At the end of the presentation, Professor Nersesian will address matters on the minds of attendees on how @RISK may be applied to their work.
» Read more details about the webcast and register here
» See complete Webcast schedule
The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.
What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.
The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.
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» Palisade Publishes New
Book by Roy Nersesian on
Energy Risk Modeling
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Simulating a New Product:
The Hippo Example
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Making Hard Decisions
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Risk and Return for
Bioenergy Crops under
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Energy Risk Modeling as a
Teaching Tool, and Overview
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