E-Focus: @RISK used to Simulate NCAA Tournament

In This Issue
What’s New
» @RISK Used to Simulate
   NCAA Tournament

» Palisade Featured in Risk

» Latin American Utility
   Uses @RISK to Analyze
   Hydroelectric Plant

» Palisade Risk Conferences
  Sweep South America

Case Study
» PwC Recommends @RISK to
   Post Denmark to Reduce
   Insurance Premiums

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Modeling the Operating
   Costs for a Mine in the
   Absence of Data

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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2013 Palisade Risk Conferences
Plan now for the eighth Palisade Risk Conference series, starting in a few weeks in South America. More information about each conference to be announced soon.
» Santiago de Chile: 19 March
» São Paulo: 21 March
» Johannesburg: 25 April
» Tokyo: 14 May
» Shanghai: 16 May
» London: 11 June
» Frankfurt: 13 June
» Las Vegas: 20-21 November

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Singapore: 17-18 April
Auckland: 22-23 May
Sydney: 5-6 June
Perth: 19-20 June
Kuala Lumpur: 3-4 July
Melbourne: 17-18 July

» EMEA & India
Oslo: 2-3 April
Moscow: 10-12 April
London: 16-18 April
Johannesburg: 22-24 April
Abu Dhabi: 14-16 May
London: 4-6 June
Paris: 11-13 June
Vienna: 18-20 June
London: 16-18 July

» Latin America
México D.F.: 9-11 de abril
Buenos Aires: 9-11 de abril
Quito: 23-25 de abril
Santiago: 14-16 de mayo
Bogotá: 4-6 de junio

» North America
Charleston: 3-4 April
Washington, DC: 9-11 April
San Diego: 16-18 April
Chicago: 23-25 April
New York City: 1-3 May
Houston: 8-9 May*
Seattle: 15-16 May*
Detroit: 21-22 May
Calgary: 4-6 June
Portland: 11-12 June
New Orleans: 19-20 June
Toronto: 25-27 June
Cincinnati: 9-10 July
Houston: 16-18 July
New York City: 30-31 July*
*Project Risk Assessment Seminar

Live Web Training
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

1-2 May, 9am-1pm ET
31 Oct.- 1 Nov. 1pm-5pm ET

15-16 May, 9am-1pm ET
14-15 November 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite

11-12 July, 1pm-5pm ET 9-10 December, 9am-1pm ET

25-26 July, 1pm-5pm ET
19-20 December, 9am-1pm ET

Project Risk Assessment
using @RISK

18-19 September, 1pm-5pm ET


Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

Visual decision analysis
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The Innovative Optimizer
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The DecisionTools Suite

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@RISK Used to Simulate NCAA Tournament
Indiana University professor and sports simulation modeler Wayne Winston uses @RISK to assess the probabilities of different teams winning the NCAA tournament. Using computer ratings, he simulates the tournament 10,000 times to see who the best the most often.

The @RISK method was recently covered in a blog post by Ben Cohen of the Wall Street Journal, who revealed that Winston’s model predicts Pittsburgh as “one of the safer first-round bets.”

Winston has been using simulation modeling for years to help pro sports teams from basketball to baseball improve performance with quantitative analytics. He explained in greater detail his approach to the NCAA tournament in a Huffington Post blog post in 2010.

Try it yourself! We have provided a sample 2103 NCAA simulation model designed for @RISK, complete with 2013 Sagarin ratings. The model was designed and updated by Wayne Winston and fellow Indiana University professor Chris Albright.

 » Read the WSJ blog post
 » Try it yourself! Download the sample NCAA model

Palisade Featured in Risk Management Magazine
In the March 2013 issue of Risk Management magazine, Palisade VP Randy Heffernan discusses how @RISK Monte Carlo simulation can go beyond its traditional use for commercial risk analysis. While @RISK is typically used to enhance a company’s bottom line, Randy explains how it can also be used to help save lives and guide decision makers in times of potential crisis—such as volcano evacuations, pandemic preparation, and Hurricane Katrina. Risk Management is the premier publication of analysis, insight and news for risk managers.

 » Read the full article

Latin American Utility Uses @RISK
to Analyze Hydroelectric Plant

One of Latin America’s largest providers of hydroelectric energy has used @RISK to consider the cost implications of constructing a new subterranean hydroelectric plant, helping to refine cost-projections. Palisade’s software created a detailed model that enabled them to accurately estimate the quantities and the unit costs of items needed for construction.

This major utility company provides over 20% of Colombia’s expected demand for power generation. Often, the company’s plants have to be built underground, and this type of subterranean construction can involve high uncertainty and risk. Prior to moving forward with the project, the company needed to have a solid understanding of the project’s budget.

Thus, before constructing its latest hydroelectric plant, the utility company turned to Palisade’s @RISK software during the planning stages to determine where potential funding challenges might exist.

Using a stochastic model based on uncertainty and risk profiles for quantities and prices of key construction elements, @RISK generated a model of the expected variations in the project’s quantities and prices. This model estimated a mean budget of $560 million, with a maximum cost of $595 million. However, when @RISK created a stochastic model that incorporated expected variations and unexpected risk events that could impact cost, it told a much different story: A mean projection of $586 million existed, with possible risk factors pushing the project up to $620 million. Having such detailed projections allowed the company to appropriately adjust funding needs for the higher projections, and helped determine the overall technical and economic feasibility of the project.

As the adage indicates, “Knowing is half the battle,” and in this case, “knowing” was potentially worth tens-of-millions of dollars.

 » Read the full case study

Palisade Risk Conferences Sweep
South America

Now in its eighth year, the Palisade Risk Conference Series kicked off 2013 with March conferences in Santiago, Chile, and São Paulo, Brazil. Attracting over 200 delegates, the events touched on key issues important to risk management in today’s uncertain economy. Notable topics included: Valuation of mining investments, stress testing of credit risk, feasibility of renewable energy projects, livestock risk, and petroleum exploration. Attendees included decision makers from Codelco, Petrobras, Brazilian National Development Bank, Collahausi, Ernst & Young, and many others.

Delegates also took advantage of one-on-one Expert Sessions. Offered by Palisade consultants and technical experts, individualized consulting sessions helped many attendees improve their risk models with tangible, hands-on techniques they could use immediately in their work.

The conferences each included an animated round table panel discussion on the challenges faced by professionals in their journey toward the adoption of risk management practices.

This year Palisade offers more events than ever around the world:

 » 2013 Palisade Risk Conference series

Case Study
PricewaterhouseCoopers Recommends
@RISK to Post Denmark to Reduce
Insurance Premiums

Post Denmark, the national postal service company for Denmark, used @RISK to help bring down their insurance premiums. At the recommendation of PricewaterhouseCoopers, which does risk analysis consulting for Post Denmark, the company opted to use Palisade’s @RISK. The software created an accurate model for Post Denmark’s potential operational hazards—which might include theft, accidents, or fraud. By using past risk events to predict the likelihood of future ones, @RISK helped Post Denmark achieve a clearer picture of the organization’s risk undertaking, along with improved insurance premiums.

 » Read the full case study
 » Read more about @RISK

Product Spotlight
Modeling the Operating Costs for
a Mine in the Absence of Data

This model uses historical mining costs for seven years to project costs for the coming year. The model forecasts line items for the coming year in two very different ways. First, it uses @RISK's Distribution Fitting tool to fit the historical data. This is a reasonable approach, but it can be argued that seven data values are not a sufficient basis for fitting a distribution. The second approach uses a more general distribution, the Trigen distribution. The bottom line is that the choice of input distributions can definitely make a difference in the distributions of the outputs.

 » Download the example model

Introduction to Risk Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Palisade
   28 March - 10am GMT (Greenwich Mean Time)
» Register Now
   25 April - 10am GMT (Summer Time) » Register Now

@RISK for Engineers
Presented by Andre Kleyner
Delphi Corporation
   28 March - 11am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)

   » Register Now

Introduction to Time Series Analysis using @RISK 6
Presented by Freeman Liu
   3 April 2013 - 14:00 Australia Eastern Daylight Time

   » Register Now

Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse
mit @RISK und der DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Sascha Stange
   9. April - 10h, CEST (Central European Summer Time)

   » Register Now

Introduction to PrecisionTree
Presented by Freeman Liu
   24 April 2013 14:00 Australia Eastern Daylight Time

   » Register Now

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
avec @RISK et DécisionTools Suite (en français)

Présenté par Manuel Carmona
   30 avril 2013, 10h, heure d'été GMT

   » Register Now

The use of @RISK with an Online Investment Portal
Presented by Charlie Strout
Seven Shadow, LLC, Prudena
   16 May 2013 11:00am Eastern Daylight Time

   » Register Now

Introduction to Cost Estimating using @RISK
Presented by Doug Oldfieldu
   30 May 2013 10:00 GMT Summer Time

   » Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


The Global Leader in Risk
and Decision Analysis

Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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