@RISK Modeling Tips
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Using Decision Trees with PrecisionTree to Add Insight to Decisions
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
Project Risk Assessment using @RISK
Engineering Giant AECOM Employs
AECOM was engaged by the Australian Department of Climate Change to undertake an economic analysis of climate change impacts on infrastructure through the development of a series of case studies. These studies will be used to inform the Australian government’s discussion on policy responses to the risk that climate change will increase infrastructure investment and maintenance costs. In this case, the area of study was the increased risk of flooding from Narrabeen Lagoon in the northern Sydney local government area of Pittwater.
When its entrance is blocked, rain and floodwaters will generally fill a lagoon like a bathtub, and can therefore flood the land and houses around it. Because climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of storms and rainfall in the Narrabeen catchment over the coming century, decision makers need a better understanding of the social costs and benefits to their communities of the different adaptation measures that could be implemented to reduce inundation.
The pioneering study estimates the social benefits of adaptation to climate change in terms of willingness to pay, rather than just costs avoided. It employs @RISK for Monte Carlo analysis to generate more realistic probabilities of overall costs and benefits, as well as modeling the expected future values of variables such as rainfall using extreme value analysis rather than just taking averages. Possible measures—lagoon entrance opening, levee construction, flood awareness, and planning control—are analyzed in detail.
Scientific Computing World Highlights
Dr. Tapan Biswas, a member of the Indian Radiological Association and founder of the Biswas X-Ray and Scan Centre, has developed a protocol that allows his center to determine the pathological changes in brain tumors without the use of the injected contrast dye intravenous gadolinium. The contrast agent has been linked to the development of nephrogenic system fibrosis, a serious condition of the joints, skin and internal organs. It is highly toxic despite being widely used in MRIs to enhance or discriminate brain tumors. Since gadolinium can cause complications for patients, Dr. Biswas wanted to be able to create the same enhancement to the brain tumor that gadolinium would give, but without actually using it. This led to research that would help determine the probability of the ability to produce an enhancement-like effect of the brain lesions of the MRI images without the injections. Using Palisade’s neural networks software NeuralTools, he was able to intelligently predict outcomes based on multiple pieces of input data. Neural networks are sophisticated data mining algorithms used to make predictions based on patterns in historical data. Using data from previous brain tumors, NeuralTools has been used to make predictions with new patients that are both accurate and simple to read.
In their eighth year and with continually increasing participation, the Palisade Risk Conferences have become the most important events of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. This year Palisade offers more events than ever around the world:
The Las Vegas Risk Conference features several tracks over the course of two days. Industry users and expert consultants will present dozens of real-world case studies and training sessions about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. In addition, you’ll have the opportunity to meet one-on-one with technical consultants to address your personal modeling and risk problems.
Now Accepting Presentation Submissions
To assist you with preparing a paper for submission, here is some additional information about the conference and the audience:
Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión
Introduction to Time Series Analysis using @RISK 6
Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse
Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
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