E-Focus: Engineering Giant AECOM Employs @RISK in Key Climate Change Study for Australian Government

In This Issue
What’s New
» AECOM Employs @RISK in Key
   Climate Change Study for
   Australian Government

» Scientific Computing World
   Highlights Role of Palisade
   Tools in Innovative New
   MRI Procedure

» Palisade Risk Conference Las
   Vegas Call for Papers

Case Study
» Energy Company Relies on
   @RISK to Lower Drilling Costs

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Supply Chain Disruptions

Upcoming Webcasts

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2013 Palisade Risk Conferences
Plan now for the eighth Palisade Risk Conference series, starting in a few weeks in South America. More information about each conference to be announced soon.
» Santiago de Chile: 19 March
» São Paulo: 21 March
» Johannesburg: 25 April
» Tokyo: 14 May
» Shanghai: 16 May
» London: 11 June
» Frankfurt: 13 June
» Las Vegas: 20-21 November

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Brisbane: 26-27 March
Singapore: 17-18 April
Auckland: 22-23 May
Sydney: 5-6 June
Perth: 19-20 June
Kuala Lumpur: 3-4 July

» Brazil
Rio de Janeiro: 4-8 março
(oferecido à noite, 18:00-22:00)

» Latin America
Bogotá: 5-7 de marzo
México D.F.: 9-11 de abril
Buenos Aires: 9-11 de abril
Quito: 23-25 de abril
Santiago: 14-16 de mayo
Bogotá: 4-6 de junio

» North America
Phoenix: 4-5 March
Phoenix: 7-8 March*
Orlando: 26-27 March
Charleston: 3-4 April
San Diego: 2-4 April
Washington, DC: 9-11 April
San Diego: 16-18 April
Chicago: 23-25 April
New York City: 1-3 May
Houston: 8-9 May*
Seattle: 15-16 May*
Detroit: 21-22 May
Calgary: 4-6 June
Portland: 11-12 June
New Orleans: 19-20 June
Toronto: 25-27 June
*Project Risk Assessment Seminar

Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite

11-12 July, 1pm-5pm ET

7-8 March, 9am-1pm ET
25-26 July, 1pm-5pm ET

Using Decision Trees with PrecisionTree to Add Insight to Decisions
13 March, 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

1-2 May, 9am-1pm ET
31 Oct.- 1 Nov. 1pm-5pm ET

15-16 May, 9am-1pm ET
14-15 November 1pm-5pm ET

Project Risk Assessment using @RISK
18-19 September, 1pm-5pm ET


Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

Visual decision analysis
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The DecisionTools Suite

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Engineering Giant AECOM Employs
@RISK in Key Climate Change Study for
Australian Government

With flooding an increasing threat to coastal residents north of Sydney, Australia, @RISK software was employed by engineering firm AECOM to model the risks and benefits of various preventative measures.

AECOM was engaged by the Australian Department of Climate Change to undertake an economic analysis of climate change impacts on infrastructure through the development of a series of case studies. These studies will be used to inform the Australian government’s discussion on policy responses to the risk that climate change will increase infrastructure investment and maintenance costs. In this case, the area of study was the increased risk of flooding from Narrabeen Lagoon in the northern Sydney local government area of Pittwater.

When its entrance is blocked, rain and floodwaters will generally fill a lagoon like a bathtub, and can therefore flood the land and houses around it. Because climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of storms and rainfall in the Narrabeen catchment over the coming century, decision makers need a better understanding of the social costs and benefits to their communities of the different adaptation measures that could be implemented to reduce inundation.

The pioneering study estimates the social benefits of adaptation to climate change in terms of willingness to pay, rather than just costs avoided. It employs @RISK for Monte Carlo analysis to generate more realistic probabilities of overall costs and benefits, as well as modeling the expected future values of variables such as rainfall using extreme value analysis rather than just taking averages. Possible measures—lagoon entrance opening, levee construction, flood awareness, and planning control—are analyzed in detail.

 » Read the white paper here

Scientific Computing World Highlights
Role of Palisade Tools in Innovative New
MRI Procedure

A recent story in Scientific Computing World featured the use of Palisade’s NeuralTools software at the Biswas X-Ray and Scan Centre in India to determine the pathological changes in brain tumors.

Dr. Tapan Biswas, a member of the Indian Radiological Association and founder of the Biswas X-Ray and Scan Centre, has developed a protocol that allows his center to determine the pathological changes in brain tumors without the use of the injected contrast dye intravenous gadolinium. The contrast agent has been linked to the development of nephrogenic system fibrosis, a serious condition of the joints, skin and internal organs. It is highly toxic despite being widely used in MRIs to enhance or discriminate brain tumors. Since gadolinium can cause complications for patients, Dr. Biswas wanted to be able to create the same enhancement to the brain tumor that gadolinium would give, but without actually using it. This led to research that would help determine the probability of the ability to produce an enhancement-like effect of the brain lesions of the MRI images without the injections. Using Palisade’s neural networks software NeuralTools, he was able to intelligently predict outcomes based on multiple pieces of input data. Neural networks are sophisticated data mining algorithms used to make predictions based on patterns in historical data. Using data from previous brain tumors, NeuralTools has been used to make predictions with new patients that are both accurate and simple to read.

 » Read the article in Scientific Computing World
 » Further reading from EHealth
 » View the Palisade Case Study

Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas
Call for Papers

Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, November 20-21, 2013

In their eighth year and with continually increasing participation, the Palisade Risk Conferences have become the most important events of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. This year Palisade offers more events than ever around the world:

The Las Vegas Risk Conference features several tracks over the course of two days. Industry users and expert consultants will present dozens of real-world case studies and training sessions about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. In addition, you’ll have the opportunity to meet one-on-one with technical consultants to address your personal modeling and risk problems.

Now Accepting Presentation Submissions
If you would like give a presentation on how you use Palisade software to address a risk problem, please send a short abstract to The closing date for abstracts to be submitted is July 1st.

To assist you with preparing a paper for submission, here is some additional information about the conference and the audience:

  • The audience will mostly be risk and decision analysts wanting an in-depth look at how you are using the software to address your specific needs. Of course, no proprietary information should be presented, but the more details about how you approached your risk challenge, the better.
  • The most successful presentations often show an actual spreadsheet model using @RISK or other Palisade tools is desirable. The data and labels don’t matter as much as the illustration of the approach.
  • The audience will be drawn from a wide range of job titles and industries. These are likely to include: cost estimators, risk managers, engineers, and project managers from sectors such as: mining, insurance, finance, construction, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, government, and many more.
  • Comments on the feedback forms from the 2012 Conferences included:
    "I like nuts-and-bolts presentations which show how people are doing advanced things”, and "I would like to see more of how the models are set up and are presented to management."
  • Here are two examples of highly rated presentation at the 2012 Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas:
       » Cost and Schedule Risk Assessment at Cardno Entrix
       » Holistic Decision Making at Intel
  • If possible, please include either screen captures of your model(s) or send across the actual models themselves with your submission.

 » 2013 Palisade Risk Conference series

Case Study
Energy Company Relies on @RISK
to Lower Drilling Costs

Blade Energy, an energy consulting company, is incorporating @RISK in their predictive analysis of potential productivity improvements for unbalanced drilling. While many people think oil drilling is straightforward, geological formulations make it increasingly difficult to find and extract oil. Blade Energy’s use of @RISK’s Monte Carlo simulation and probability distributions helps predict the most cost-efficient way to extract oil.

 » Read the full case study
 » Read more about @RISK
 » Learn more about Blade Energy

Product Spotlight
Supply Chain Disruptions
This model, using @RISK and RISKOptimizer, illustrates how disruptions at suppliers, such as weather, strikes, or others, can affect a supply chain, and how such disruptions can be mitigated. The model has two suppliers and two manufacturers. Normally, each supplier supplies a single manufacturer. However, there are occasional disruptions at the suppliers, and each disruption can last a random number of weeks. If an order is placed during a disruption period, this order is ignored by the supplier, resulting in an increased chance of stockouts at the manufacturer. The model explores the mitigation strategy where the manufacturers can "share" suppliers.

 » Download the example model

Introduction to Risk Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Palisade
   28 February - 10am GMT (Greenwich Mean Time)
» Register Now
   13 March - 10am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time) » Register Now
   28 March - 10am GMT (Greenwich Mean Time) » Register Now
   25 April - 10am GMT (Summer Time) » Register Now

Introduction to Schedule Risk using @RISK 6
Presented by Freeman Liu
   13 March - 14:00 Australia Eastern Daylight Time

   » Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión
con @RISK y DecisiónTools Suite

Presentado por Manuel Carmona
   26 March - 10am GMT (Greenwich Mean Time)

   » Register Now

@RISK for Engineers
Presented by Andre Kleyner
Delphi Corporation
   28 March - 11am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)

   » Register Now

Introduction to Time Series Analysis using @RISK 6
Presented by Freeman Liu
   3 April 2013 - 14:00 Australia Eastern Daylight Time

   » Register Now

Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse
mit @RISK und der DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Sascha Stange
   9. April - 10h, CEST (Central European Summer Time)

   » Register Now

Introduction to PrecisionTree
Presented by Freeman Liu
   24 April 2013 14:00 Australia Eastern Daylight Time

   » Register Now

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
avec @RISK et DécisionTools Suite (en français)

Présenté par Manuel Carmona
   30 avril 2013, 10h, heure d'été GMT

   » Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


The Global Leader in Risk
and Decision Analysis

Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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