E-Focus: @RISK and Hurricane Call Centers In This Issue
What’s New
» @RISK and Hurricane
   Call Centers

» Palisade Risk Conference
   Las Vegas an Overwhelming

» @RISK and Project Cost and
   Schedule Modeling

Case Study
» Halcrow Group and the UK
   Environmental Agency
   Manage the Risk of Flooding
   using @RISK

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Supply Chain Management
  and Inventory Optimization
  with RISKOptimizer

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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2012 Palisade Risk Conferences
Plan now for the eighth Palisade Risk Conference series, to start in March next year in South America. More information about each conference to be announced soon.
» Santiago de Chile: 19 March
» São Paulo: 21 March
» Las Vegas: Date TBA

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Melbourne: 4-5 December

Brisbane: 16-17 January
Sydney: 22-23 January
Jakarta: 20-21 February
Melbourne: 27-28 January
Brisbane: 20-21 March
Canberra: 10-11 April
Singapore: 17-18 April

» Latin America
Montevideo: 3-5 de diciembre

» North America
Los Angeles: 4-5 December
Atlanta: 11-12 December
Houston: 22-24 January
Ottawa: 5-7 February
Washington, DC: 12-13 February
Los Angeles: 20-21 Feb - Project
Phoenix: 4-5 March
Phoenix: 7-8 March - Project
South Carolina: 12-13 March
Orlando: 26-27 March
San Diego: 2-4 April
Washington, DC: 9-11 April
Chicago: 23-25 April
New York City: 30 April - 2 May
Houston: 8-9 May
Seattle: 15-16 May

Detroit: 21-22 May
Calgary: 4-6 June
Portland: 11-12 June
New Orleans: 19-20 June
Toronto: 25-27 June

Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite

3-4 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

17-18 Dec., 11am-3pm ET


Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
» Español
» Português
» Deutsch
» Français
» 日本語版
» 中文版

Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite

Intel and the Intel logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.

@RISK and Hurricane Call Centers
In 2005, Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf coast of the US, causing damage on a scale never before seen. In the wake of the storm, the State of Lousiana set up a family assistance call center to address the needs of those affected. The center provided relief information, took missing person data, and reconnected families. The center used @RISK to predict call volumes and staffing requirements.

As the phones began ringing, center managers realized that staffing for the call center was not synchronized with the volume of calls or the timing of them. Therefore, Henry Yennie, a program manager in the state’s Department of Health and Hospitals, began to develop an @RISK model for family assistance call load that could provide reasonable predictions of necessary capacity, staffing and budget parameters for organizers of future assistance centers.

Yennie identified the “major drivers” of load—timing and duration of calls, number of deaths, number of initial calls that became full telephone interviews, and so forth. As the model was refined, his predictions of call volume became more accurate, and he was able to make better staffing decisions. Said Yennie: “@RISK’s ability to handle highly uncertain information made it invaluable in coping with a disaster like Katrina.”

 » Read the full case study

Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas an Overwhelming Success
Attracting over 175 delegates, Palisade’s 2012 Risk Conference, held November 7-8 at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, was a huge success. With more tracks and sessions than ever, the event included an exciting keynote from Intel’s Andre Lowe, a lively round table discussion with a panel of experts, customized software consulting, and networking sessions at the 64th-floor Mix Lounge, affording everyone the best open-air views in Las Vegas.

The Conference offered something for virtually everyone, regardless of industry sector. Professionals attended from industries such as utilities, oil and gas, engineering and construction, aerospace, manufacturing, finance, and many more. In response to growing demand, a new track of sessions was added this year, bringing the total to four tracks and nearly 50 separate sessions.

 » See the conference program, read testimonials, and more
 » Stay connected! Join the Palisade LinkedIn Group

“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our
problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”
  Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning,
  Lockheed Martin

“First class! One of the better seminars I have gone to.
Excited about the possibilities.”
  Billy Kemp, Project Cost Engineer, Invista

“Excellent conference. If there are numbers that vary, you
should be here.”
 George Chiang, Independent Cost Analyst, Boeing Company

@RISK and Project Cost
and Schedule Modeling

As presented by Stephen Grey at the 2012 Palisade Risk Conference Sydney, Australia
For over twenty years, the use of Monte Carlo simulation to analyze risk in project cost and schedule forecasts has been open to anyone with a PC. The basic idea seems simple but, while twenty years is long enough for many people to have tried it there is still a lot of variation in how analyses are carried out and in the quality of the results they produce. This paper describes how, using @RISK, you can avoid reinventing the wheel by taking advantage of good ideas that have only really matured in the last few years.

 » Read the full paper
 » Visit Stephen Grey’s consultancy, Broadleaf Capital

Case Study
Halcrow Group Ltd and the UK
Environment Agency Manage the
Risk of Flooding using @RISK

Infrastructure consultants Halcrow Group have used @RISK for a number of years on a wide variety of projects. For Environment Agency projects, Halcrow employs @RISK in the risk quantitative stage to set risk budgets at the start of each phase of the project commission. Starting with the ‘sunny day estimate’ of the project risk, it identifies, assesses and quantifies every potential threat that could affect (i.e. increase) this base figure.

Using @RISK for ongoing risk quantification on individual projects allows Halcrow to monitor progress against original budget incentive thresholds and potentially allows the Environment Agency to make strategic decisions on allocating funds across the whole portfolio of Flood Defense projects.

Tim Wells, project manager at Halcrow, comments: “Halcrow’s line of business makes robust risk analysis an essential part of our daily lives, and the Environment Agency’s core principles reinforce this way of working. Palisade and @RISK provide us with a flexible product that is easy to use, as a result of which we are able to maximize our own revenues on projects. In addition they ensure that the Environment Agency is accountable to the UK public by putting its funds to the most effective use to guard against flooding.”

 » Read the full case study

Product Spotlight
Supply Chain Management and Inventory Optimization with RISKOptimizer
Excerpted from Chapter 8 of RISKOptimizer for Business Applications
by Roy Nersesian

A good introduction to supply chain management is the bullwhip effect to illustrate what arises from the traditional disjointed relationship between a manufacturer and its suppliers, and between these suppliers and their underlying component suppliers. As will be seen, this leads to excessive inventory levels. Closer collaboration and coordination between buyers (factories) and sellers (suppliers) can achieve considerable savings by reducing inventory carrying costs throughout the system.

 » See how to optimize supply chain strategy and minimize inventory costs with RISKOptimizer – description and model included
 » Order RISKOptimizer for Business Applications

Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis
using @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Marcelle Crinean, Palisade
   December 6, 2012, 10am GMT » Register Now

Good Practices and Common Mistakes
Presented by Dr. Huybert Groenendaal, EpiX Analytics
   December 6, 2012 11am EST (Eastern Standard Time)
» Register Now

Use of @RISK in Food Safety Risk Assessment
Presented by Charles Yoe, Notre Dame of Maryland
University and Charles Yoe Consulting
   January 10, 2013 11am EST (Eastern Standard Time)
» Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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