» Risk Analysis and Real
Options in Upstream Projects
» Intel uses @RISK and
PrecisionTree for Product
» No-Charge Expert
» Network Versions for
@RISK and DecisionTools
Suite 6.0 Now Available
@RISK Modeling Tips
Using Decision Trees with
Risk Analysis and Real Options in
Rafael Hartke developed a real options model to evaluate specific project expansions in the Gulf. He then created a solution integrating the standard risk analysis model (using @RISK) with the real options model (using RISKOptimizer). This case study discusses the integrated model and its application to an upstream project in the Gulf of Mexico.Intel uses @RISK and PrecisionTree
for Product Development
As presented by Andre Lowe at the
2010 Palisade Risk Conference, Las Vegas
Meet Andre at the 2012 Risk Conference in Las Vegas, November 7-8
Intel Corporation's Embedded and Communications Group (ECG) delivers an enhanced IA technology portfolio for embedded and communications market segments. ECG is broken into three divisions, Embedded Computing Division (ECD), Low-Power Embedded Products Division (LEPD) and Performance Products Division (PPD). ECG's products are either Adopt (server, desktop, mobile), Modify (LV Processors, Mobile CPU + Server Chipsets) and Create (system on a chip, San Clemente).
“Gossamer Lightning” (see example model) is a typical “Create” project. Determining the optimal strategy for Gossamer required balancing various investment scenarios, headcount decisions, and target market choices. Additionally, there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty involved in important factors such as bill-of-materials (BOM) costs, average selling price (ASP), and volume expectations. Monte Carlo analysis and decision trees have been key in understanding the risks and expected returns of the project.
Palisade Risk Conference Offers
A unique feature of the Palisade Risk Conference is our Expert Sessions: one-on-one consulting sessions with Palisade technical experts. Sign up for a 45-minute slot to meet with us and discuss your own risk or decision modeling challenges. Feel free to bring your laptop and your models. All sessions are confidential and there is no additional charge. Slots are available on a first come, first serve basis.
Network Versions for @RISK 6.0 and DecisionTools Suite 6.0 Now Available
Now you can enjoy all the benefits of version 6.0 with the flexibility and ease of deployment that come with a Palisade network license. By hosting @RISK or DecisionTools Suite in a client-server environment, you reduce tracking overhead, minimize product activations, and provide access to the software to all your users on a cost-efficient, as-needed basis.
Customers with current maintenance on their existing @RISK or DecisionTools Suite network license are entitled to a free upgrade to new version 6. Other existing users are eligible for discounted upgrade pricing.
Contact me to order your Palisade network version:
A recent project focusing on sub-sea equipment for the oil and gas industry at Cranfield provided evidence to business managers that a better return on investment (ROI) is achieved through enhancing a product's longterm reliability as a result of spending time and resources early in the product design lifecycle.
Cranfield's School of Applied Sciences uses @RISK software to calculate the likelihood of sub-sea oil and gas production equipment failing, and the overall cost throughout the project life cycle, should it do so. The failure of any product has huge ramifications. @RISK enables Cranfield to integrate the critical elements of the two core risk analysis techniques commonly used in the engineering field, RAM (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability) and Lifecycle Costing analysis (LCC).
Simulation statistics and graphs are placed in a template using @RISK statistics functions (such as RiskMean) or the graphing function RiskResultsGraph. When a statistics function or graphing function is located in a template sheet, the desired statistics and graphs are then generated at the end of a simulation in a copy of the template sheet when you choose the Template Sheets option in the Excel Reports dialog. The original template sheet with the @RISK functions remains intact for use in generating reports from your next simulation.
Template sheets are standard Excel sheets. They are identified to @RISK by having a name that starts with RiskTemplate_. These files can also contain any standard Excel formulas so custom calculations can be performed using simulation results.
Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
Using @RISK in Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD)
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