E-Focus:Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas:
Program Schedule Now Available – More Tracks Than Ever In This Issue
What’s New

» Palisade Risk Conference
   Las Vegas: Program
   Schedule Now Available

» British Columbia Hydro Uses
   @RISK to Evaluate
   Equipment Replacement

» Palisade in E-commerce
: "Knowledge is
   Power: Embracing Risk

Case Study
» Steel Giant Uses @RISK
   to Manage Furnace

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Modeling Insurance Claims

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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2012 Palisade Risk Conferences
Join us in Las Vegas for the biggest conference yet with FOUR TRACKS of industry experts presenting real-world case studies, and Palisade consultants delivering workshops and training. Sign up for an Expert Session, in which you can have an expert review your model and answer questions, one-on-one, at no charge.
» London: 18-19 April
» Sydney: 29-30 May
» Las Vegas: 7-8 Nov

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Singapore: 21-22 August
Sydney: 9-10 October
Perth: 13-14 November
Brisbane: 20-21 November

» Brazil
Belo Horizonte:
  19-21 de setembro
Rio de Janeiro:
  26-28 de setembro
Brasilia: 3-5 de outubro
Vitória: 24-25 de outubro
São Paulo: 7-9 de novembro
Curitiba: 21-23 de novembro

» EMEA & India
München: 4-5 September
London: 18-20 September
Amsterdam: 3-4 October
London: 23-25 October
Oslo: 22-23 November

» Latin America
San José: 27-31 de agosto Bogotá: 4-6 de septiembre Panamá: 17-19 de octubre Santiago: 12-16 de noviembre

» North America
Denver: 11-13 September
Montreal: 18-20 September
Chicago: 9-11 October
Vancouver: 17-18 October
Washington, DC:
   23-24 October
Dallas: 27-29 November

Live Web TrainingDecision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite

6-7 Sept., 9am-1pm ET

17-18 Sept., 9am-1pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK

1-2 October, 9am-1pm ET

25-26 October, 9am-1pm ET

Using Decision Trees with
PrecisionTree to Add Insight
to Decisions

12 November, 1pm-5pm ET


Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
» Español
» Português
» Deutsch
» Français
» 日本語版
» 中文版

Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite

Intel and the Intel logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.

Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas:
Schedule Now Available – More Tracks Than Ever

Join Leaders from Cisco, PricewaterhouseCoopers,
Intel, HDR, and Many More

Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, November 7-8, 2012

Join us again in Las Vegas for the most important event of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis! This year we have added an entire new track of industry case studies, making four tracks in total. Plus, we will again feature Expert Sessions, personalized one-on-one meetings with Palisade consultants to review your own risk models.

In its seventh year and attracting more people every time, the Palisade Risk Conference has become the “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Over the course of two days, industry experts and Palisade consultants will present a selection of over 40 real-world case studies, software workshops, and training classes. Learn about innovative and interesting approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. And of course networking events and lunches are always included. The ROI for attending is unbeatable.

New this year, we are moving to the exciting Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino. Book your room now at this 5-star resort for only $149.

 » View the full conference program
 » Measure the conference ROI for your company
 » Book your room at Mandalay Bay – Limited rooms available
 » Register for only $395

" I came away from the conference very satisfied. The
  conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to
  observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even
  made some very valuable contacts."
                          –  Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst,
                             Eastman Chemical Company


British Columbia Hydro Uses @RISK
to Evaluate Equipment Replacement

As presented by Dean Cardno at the 2011 Palisade
Risk Conference Las Vegas.

Meet BC Hydro in Las Vegas at the 2012
Palisade Risk Conference, Nov 7-8

In consideration of whether to replace or refurbish four generator stators, British Columbia Hydro in Canada used @RISK to evaluate the expected cost of the intervention and the future service lives of the equipment under each treatment alternative to determine the preferred option. BC Hydro then used @RISK to evaluate the consequences of equipment failure and quantify the effect of immediate versus deferred intervention and determine the appropriate schedule to address known stator deficiencies.

 » Download the full case study and Excel models

Palisade in E-commerce Times:
"Knowledge is Power: Embracing Risk Analysis"
Excerpted from the E-commerce Times, July 14, 2012

How do businesses eliminate risk? The simple answer is this: They can't. It is impossible. Understand the nature of risk factors, and plan strategies accordingly. Create an environment in which the reality of risk is communicated, and employ the latest technological advances to forecast risk in order to improve the company's "risk health."

 » Read the full article

Case Study
Steel Giant Uses @RISK to
Manage Furnace Shutdown

Risk management is the process of identifying, analyzing and mitigating risk. This has often been conducted in a fairly haphazard way, with no real structure to the procedure. A more forward-looking approach was taken by the steel giant Corus (now part of Tata Steel Europe) when they conducted a large-scale intermediate repair to the largest blast furnace in Europe, located at the Teesside Works at Redcar, England. Corus enlisted the help of HVR Consulting Services Ltd, recognized experts in the field of risk management, to conduct a series of project and business risk assessments. The project risk assessments aimed to ensure all risks to the project were identified and analyzed, and @RISK was used as the tool to analyze the project timescales. Variability surrounding the duration of activities in the project plan was combined with risks from the risk register to create a risk model. This was then analyzed using @RISK, not only to predict the likely project outcomes but also to identify key areas requiring management attention and opportunities for schedule saving.

 » Read the full case study

Product Spotlight
Modeling Insurance Claims with Simulation,
the Compound Function, and Resampling

It is important for an insurance company to estimate the amount of claims it will incur in a given year. This series of models assumes that there are three types of claims: auto, general liability, and worker's comp. Historical data for the company is included. The top section lists the numbers of claims for the previous 20 years. Summary measures across years are shown to the right. These include correlations, since it is conceivable that the number of claims of one type might be correlated with the number of claims of another type. The bottom section lists the claim dollar amounts for all claims in the most recent year. Summary measures for these are also listed to the right.

The base model assumes that the numbers of claims and the amounts of typical claims are known for the coming year, and that they are equal to the means of the historical data. For example, it assumes that there will be 994 auto claims, each for the amount $3,409. Then the total of all claims, shown in the red cell, is the sum of products of the values in rows 4 and 5. Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty in the values in rows 4 and 5, so later models that include this uncertainty are much more realistic than this deterministic model.

Additional models are included using the RiskCompound function to summarize claims, and resampling to deal with minimal historical data.

 » Download the series of models
 » Watch a video about the insurance model series

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis
using @RISK & the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Palisade
   September 12, 2012, 11am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)
» Register Now

Portfolio Management using @RISK
Presented by Matt Rosenberg, RoseCap Investment Advisors
   September 20, 2012 11am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)
» Register Now

Using @RISK in Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD)
Approach for Civil Engineering

Presented by Naresh Samtani, NCS Consultants
   25 October 2012 11am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)
» Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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