» Unilever uses Palisade’s
DecisionTools Suite Software
to Inform Decisions on
» Palisade Europe Risk
Conference Attracts Diverse,
@RISK Modeling Tips
Using Decision Trees with
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
Project Risk Assessment
Unilever uses Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite Software to Inform Decisions on Innovation
Unilever selected Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite as the principle analysis software to support its DMUU process and decision-focused culture due to its flexibility and ability to do Monte Carlo and decision tree analysis using component products @RISK and PrecisionTree, respectively. Today, the DecisionTools Suite enables Unilever to develop probabilistic business cases for its biggest innovations, as well as its major strategic decisions.
For example, a typical use for @RISK, the risk analysis element of the suite, is in evaluating alternative strategies for a new product launch or a major capital investment. Unilever teams also use PrecisionTree, the decision analysis tool, to evaluate early stage projects where decisions and uncertainties will occur at various times in the future.
Attracting over 100 delegates, Palisade’s seventh annual EMEA Risk Conference in London offered something for virtually everyone, regardless of industry sector. The event was held at the Institute of Directors on 18th-19th April. Professionals attended from industries such as oil and gas, power generation, engineering and construction, manufacturing, and more. There were over 40 total presentations and training sessions divided into three tracks.
New this year, delegates took advantage of one-on-one Expert Sessions. Offered by Palisade consultants and technical experts, these hands-on, individualized consulting sessions helped many attendees improve their risk models.
“More than ever, this year’s delegation brought timely, relevant, and urgent problems to the discussion,” noted Palisade Europe Managing Director Craig Ferri. “With the ongoing euro crisis, political instability in the middle east, and supply chains threatened by natural disasters in Asia last year, risks of all sorts were top-of-mind, which provoked many timely discussions. Many commented on the immediacy with which they planned to introduce quantitative risk management techniques.”
The Centre for Traffic and Transport (CTT) is part of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). It is responsible for undertaking research into optimizing traffic and transport systems and in this capacity it develops evaluation models for roads and road building. This requires an in-depth understanding of the effect that any projects (both directly and indirectly related) will have on traffic behavior, as well as the overall social, economic and environmental impact of such schemes.
The CTT now uses @RISK on an increasing number of projects. Excel-compatible, @RISK uses Monte Carlo analysis to show all potential scenarios, as well as the likelihood that each will occur, thereby providing the decision-maker with the most complete picture possible.
In particular, the CTT does extensive analysis to produce a cost-benefit ratio that will determine whether a project is optimal from a socio-economic viewpoint or not. Very simply, this entails weighing up if the benefits of a venture justify its economic, social and environmental cost.
Revenue is normally the aggregate sales of various products and services. The project financing to be set up in this chapter is a factory that makes a single product, or a single product with several similar models, where revenue is sales price multiplied by volume. A lender has been asked to consider a loan to finance the factory with no recourse to other parties. The factory is the sole source of collateral and support for the loan. The loan request has already been considered in terms of its inherent desirability and the character of the borrower. The question to be dealt with is how much should be lent to the project and for how long considering the risks inherent in the transaction.
Introductie van risico- en beslisanalyse
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